固收-2026 流动性：总量时代的转折？20251209 摘要 中国金融正经历转型，政府债券发行规模超过新增信贷，2025 年政府 债券净融资预计达 14.5 万亿人民币，或超新增信贷，2026 年或将接近 16 万亿人民币，标志着社融结构重大变化，适度宽松政策重心转向支撑 社融，为新经济发展提供环境。 新经济依赖长期耐心资本，对货币政策提出新要求，传统降准降息刺激 信贷方式不再适用。当前"适度宽松"旨在通过政府杠杆稳定社融总量， 避免金融风险暴露，支持新旧动能转换，并非传统乘数效应放大杠杆。 银行体系资产负债结构变化显著，政府加杠杆成稳社融关键。剔除政府 影响，整体资产负债规模实际收缩。央行通过公开市场操作提供流动性， 填补资金缺口，未来信贷需求下降将降低政府加杠杆需求。 2025 年货币政策关键词为"择机"，降准降息需考虑全球宏观环境、 美联储政策及中国重大政策。同时强调"反内卷"，打击手工补息等不 合理竞争，维护正常收益率曲线，优化金融业务开展方式。 银行在经济转型中面临贷款对象选择挑战，需平衡市场原则与战略需求， 通过总量政策和结构性工具支持新兴动能企业和债务化解。扩大直接融 资比例是降低实体融资成本 ...

Core Insights - The financial data released by the People's Bank of China for May indicates reasonable growth in financial volume, effectively supporting the real economy [1] Group 1: Social Financing and Government Bonds - In May, the social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 224.7 billion yuan, primarily driven by government and corporate bond financing [2] - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, with net financing exceeding 3.8 trillion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 2.5 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [2] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds aimed at replacing hidden debts has been significant, contributing to the rapid growth of government bond financing in May [2] Group 2: Loan Growth Factors - The recent interest rate cuts have positively impacted loan demand, with many enterprises showing increased willingness to borrow due to lower rates [3] - External factors, such as trade negotiations leading to reduced tariffs, have also contributed to increased credit demand from foreign trade enterprises [3] - Personal loan growth reflects changes in economic activity, particularly in the real estate market, where mortgage lending has increased [3] Group 3: Financial Policy Effects - The comprehensive financial policies introduced by the central bank are beginning to show effects, with measures such as interest rate cuts and structural monetary policy tools being implemented [4] - The central bank is expected to continue using various monetary policy tools to maintain reasonable liquidity levels in the market [4] - Transparency in policy operations has been enhanced, which helps stabilize market expectations [4]