Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) rose by +0.02% on Friday, recovering from early losses due to reduced liquidity demand from a rally in stocks and higher T-note yields [1] - US personal spending in September increased by +0.3% month-over-month, aligning with expectations, while personal income rose by +0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected +0.3% [3] - The University of Michigan's US December consumer sentiment index increased by +2.3 points to 53.3, exceeding expectations of 52.0 [3] Group 2: Inflation Expectations and Federal Reserve - The University of Michigan's December 1-year inflation expectations eased to 4.1%, better than the expected no change at 4.5%, marking the smallest pace of increase in 11 months [4] - The markets are pricing in a 95% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting on December 9-10 [4] Group 3: Euro and Economic News - The EUR/USD fell by -0.03% on Friday, as the euro lost modest gains after the dollar's recovery, despite initial strength from positive Eurozone economic news [5] - Eurozone Q3 GDP was upwardly revised, and German October factory orders reported stronger-than-expected results, contributing to the euro's initial strength [5]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar showed mixed performance against major currencies, remaining flat against the euro and yen while declining against the Swiss franc, indicating a cautious approach from investors in a risk-averse environment [1] Currency Performance - The dollar was flat against the euro and yen, suggesting stability in these currency pairs [1] - The dollar experienced a decline against the Swiss franc, highlighting a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1] - Overall, the dollar's slight recovery indicates a temporary avoidance of risk by investors [1]

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) has recovered from a 1.5-month low, increasing by +0.08% due to higher T-note yields strengthening interest rate differentials and prompting short covering in the dollar [1] - Preliminary benchmark payroll revisions indicated a loss of -911,000 jobs in the US through March 2025, which is a wider loss than the expected -700,000, signaling a weaker labor market [3] - The markets are now pricing in a 10% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 16-17, a significant shift from previous expectations of zero chance [4] Group 2 - The euro (EUR/USD) fell by -0.21% from a 1.5-month high due to the dollar's rebound, compounded by a significant decline in French manufacturing production [5] - French manufacturing production for July decreased by -1.7% month-over-month, which was worse than the expected decline of -1.2% and marked the largest drop in 14 months [6]