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7月投资明显收缩拖累经济增长
Bank of China Securities· 2025-08-18 05:32
Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,270, down 1.0% for the day but up 26.0% year-to-date (YTD) [2] - The HSCEI also fell by 1.0% to 9,039, with a YTD increase of 24.0% [2] - The MSCI China index decreased by 0.3% to 82, with a YTD growth of 26.3% [2] Commodity Prices - Brent Crude oil prices fell by 0.4% to US$66 per barrel, down 9.4% YTD [3] - Gold prices decreased by 0.2% to US$3,330 per ounce, but are up 26.9% YTD [3] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 0.7% to 2,039, showing a significant YTD increase of 104.5% [3] Economic Indicators - China's GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to 4.8% in July from 5.2% in Q2 2025 [6] - Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) showed contraction due to multiple pressures, including adverse weather and property market challenges [7] - Consumption growth moderated in July, with policies shifting focus from durable goods to service consumption [8] Corporate Earnings - Towngas Smart Energy reported a 2% YoY earnings growth to HK$758 million in 1H25, slightly below expectations [10] - The company anticipates a 32% increase in earnings for 2H25 due to higher profits from its renewable business [10] - Shenhua Energy's acquisition of parent assets is expected to be EPS dilutive, with a total book value of RMB90.5 billion for the target assets [17]
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-08-06 01:20
Indonesian stocks are closing in on an all-time high as booming domestic demand offsets a deluge of foreign outflows https://t.co/u4dLfo00QE ...
2025年Q2中国经济与金融市场手册:结构性失衡与增长担忧(英文版)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-05 04:09
今天分享的是:2025年Q2中国经济与金融市场手册:结构性失衡与增长担忧(英文版) 报告共计:137页 该文档是摩根大通2025年第二季度关于中国经济与金融市场的分析手册,核心围绕结构性失衡与增长担忧展开,重点探讨了三大主题及宏观经济状况 等内容。 第一个主题是"关税战2.0",这是2025年中国面临的最大外部风险。美国对华关税大幅提升且范围扩大,峰值时累计增幅达145%,涉及钢铁、铝、汽车 等多个行业。尽管日内瓦会谈后关税有所回落,但仍是重要风险,且中美贸易谈判存在复杂性和高难度,美国与其他贸易伙伴的谈判及中国与其他国 家的贸易关系也面临挑战。 第二个主题是2024年9月以来的政策转变,采取"三箭齐发"策略,以结构性再平衡为首要,辅以财政刺激和货币宽松。政策在周期性与结构性目标间摇 摆,财政政策适度扩张,消费支持力度加大但规模仍有限,房地产政策以需求端宽松为主,去库存进展缓慢。 J.P.Morgan Economic Research July 2025 Handbook of the Chinese Economy and Financial Markets 2Q25: Structural Imbala ...
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-07-25 08:55
China’s budget deficit climbed to a fresh record in the first half, highlighting intensified government efforts to shore up domestic demand https://t.co/qey5NvBeHX ...
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-07-19 07:16
China isn't trying to dominate global markets, says Vice Finance Minister Liao Min. “Most production serves domestic demand. Exports respond to foreign interest — not a push for market control.” #China #G20 #Trade https://t.co/ak1pHMRw4m ...
高盛:中国_二季度 GDP 略超预期;2025 年全年 GDP 增长预测顺势调整至 4.7%
Goldman Sachs· 2025-07-16 00:55
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on China's GDP growth, with full-year real GDP growth forecasts raised to 4.7% for 2025 and 3.9% for 2026, reflecting a slight adjustment from previous estimates [21]. Core Insights - China's Q2 GDP growth was reported at 5.2% year-on-year, slightly above market consensus, driven by strong industrial production but tempered by weak fixed asset investment and retail sales [20][6]. - Industrial production saw a significant increase of 6.8% year-on-year in June, attributed to faster export growth following the US-China trade truce, particularly in the chemical and computer manufacturing sectors [13][7]. - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% year-to-date year-on-year in June, with notable declines in property investment, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [8][14]. - Retail sales growth decreased to 4.8% year-on-year in June, below market expectations, influenced by an earlier online shopping festival and funding shortages in consumer programs [15][8]. - The services industry output index showed a year-on-year growth of 6.0% in June, indicating resilience in the services sector despite a slight moderation from May [17][9]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - Q2 GDP rose 1.1% quarter-over-quarter non-annualized, with year-on-year growth moderating to 5.2% from 5.4% in Q1, slightly above the consensus of 5.1% [10][20]. - The nominal GDP growth declined to 3.9% in Q2 from 4.6% in Q1, indicating a negative GDP deflator [12]. Industrial Production - Industrial production growth increased to 6.8% year-on-year in June, up from 5.8% in May, with a sequential estimate of 0.9% month-on-month non-annualized growth [13][7]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth was reported at 2.8% year-to-date year-on-year in June, with a single-month estimate of 0.8% year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown from 3.7% in May [8][14]. Retail Sales - Retail sales growth fell to 4.8% year-on-year in June from 6.4% in May, with declines across various categories including online and offline goods sales [15][8]. Services Sector - The services industry output index grew by 6.0% year-on-year in June, showing a slight decrease from 6.2% in May, with a sequential growth estimate of 0.2% month-on-month non-annualized [17][9]. Property Market - Property-related activity remained weak, with sales volume down 5.4% year-on-year in June, and new home starts declining by 9.5% year-on-year [18][11].
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-07-01 09:06
Market Regulation - China's top leadership aims to curb aggressive price competition among businesses [1] - The goal is to accelerate efforts toward a unified national market [1] Economic Impact - The unified national market is intended to help boost domestic demand [1]
高盛:中国 5 月零售销售强劲,工业生产和投资走弱
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-17 06:17
Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed investment outlook for the industry, with industrial production rated at 0, fixed asset investment at -1, and retail sales at +2 [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that China's industrial production and fixed asset investment missed market expectations, while retail sales showed significant growth, indicating a divergence in economic performance across sectors [1][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government policy in stimulating domestic demand, particularly through consumer goods trade-in programs, amidst ongoing deflationary pressures and a prolonged downturn in the property market [1][17]. Summary by Sections Industrial Production - Industrial production (IP) growth moderated to 5.8% year-on-year in May from 6.1% in April, primarily due to slowing export growth linked to increased US tariffs [8][11]. - Sequentially, IP is estimated to have contracted by 0.1% month-on-month non-annualized in May [8]. - Key sectors such as electrical machinery and chemical manufacturing experienced slower output growth, overshadowing gains in automobile production [8][11]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth slowed to 2.9% year-on-year in May from 3.6% in April, driven mainly by declines in infrastructure and property investments [10][11]. - Manufacturing investment growth remained robust at 7.8% year-on-year in May, contrasting with the overall slowdown in FAI [10]. Retail Sales - Retail sales growth surged to 6.4% year-on-year in May, significantly above market consensus, driven by strong sales in home appliances and communication equipment [11][12]. - The growth in online and offline goods sales improved, with notable increases in restaurant sales revenue as well [11]. - The report cautions that the recent retail sales improvement may not be sustainable due to potential payback effects and funding shortages in consumer goods trade-in programs [1][11]. Property Market - Property-related activity remained weak, with property sales declining by 3.3% year-on-year in volume and 5.9% in value terms in May [13]. - New home starts and completions also showed significant year-on-year declines, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [13]. Labor Market - The nationwide unemployment rate edged down to 5.0% in May from 5.1% in April, reflecting seasonal patterns, while the unemployment rate for migrant workers increased slightly [14][17]. - Youth unemployment rates showed some moderation but are expected to rise amid the upcoming college graduation season [14][17].