（来源：邯郸日报） 转自：邯郸日报 全国重点零售和餐饮企业日均销售额较2025年春节假期增长5.7％、超28亿人次跨区域出行、国内出游 5.96亿人次、国内出游总花费8034.83亿元、北京轨道交通27个在建标段不停工……长达9天的"最长春节 假期"里，一幕幕火热的消费画面、不断刷新的项目建设"进度条"，折射出内需动力愈发强劲。 春节是消费旺季，长假制度优化释放的时间红利，进一步激发消费活力。 假期"加时"，点燃文旅市场。中国旅行社协会联合途牛发布报告称，途牛用户今年春节人均出游天数达 5.9天，较上年增加1.1天。马蜂窝大数据显示，5天以上的长线出游订单量占比达到59.6％。 当春节遇上冬奥，冰雪运动热持续升温。大年初二，在重庆丰都南天湖国际滑雪场，十几栋小木屋暖意 融融，蜿蜒雪道上人影攒动。 大年初三，在长沙悦方商场的"跟着电影逛市集"活动现场，市民李女士拿着电影票根，在市集上挨 个"打卡"。"我们一家三口看完《熊出没·年年有熊》，凭票根买了不少打折小吃、文创产品。"李女士 说。 作为首批"电影＋"消费综合试点城市之一，长沙创新推出"电影＋市集"消费新场景，用一张电影票串起 千店百业，丰富市民游客假日生活 ...

Economic growth in the Czech Republic accelerated last year, driven mainly by domestic demand as households increased spending fueled by rising incomes https://t.co/wq5bF9PK9h ...

Thailand’s economy is poised to expand at its slowest pace in three years in 2026 as exports and domestic demand moderate, according to the Finance Ministry. https://t.co/lz7I9YvF7D ...

Core Insights - China's consumer inflation showed a mild increase in December, indicating a slight uptick in consumer prices amid ongoing economic challenges [1] - Factory-gate prices, however, continued to experience contraction, reflecting persistent deflationary pressures within the manufacturing sector [1] - The overall economic environment remains characterized by weak domestic demand, which has been a significant factor contributing to deflationary trends throughout the year [1] Consumer Inflation - Consumer inflation in China picked up mildly in December, suggesting a potential shift in consumer spending patterns [1] - This increase in consumer prices may indicate a gradual recovery in consumer confidence, although it remains fragile [1] Factory-Gate Prices - Factory-gate prices remained in contraction, highlighting ongoing challenges faced by manufacturers in passing on costs to consumers [1] - The persistent contraction in factory-gate prices suggests that manufacturers are under pressure, which could impact profitability and investment in the sector [1] Domestic Demand - Weak domestic demand continues to be a significant issue for the Chinese economy, contributing to deflationary pressures [1] - The lack of robust consumer spending may hinder economic recovery and growth prospects in the near term [1]

Economic Indicators - Japan's economy contracted at a 2.3% annual pace in the July-September quarter, marking the first decline in six quarters [3] - The Bank of Japan's quarterly "tankan" survey showed a slight improvement in sentiment among big manufacturers, with optimism rising to 15 from 14, the highest level in four years [1][3] Investment Trends - Investment in fixed assets in China fell by 2.6% in November year-on-year, indicating a drop of 11.1% year-on-year in the first 11 months of the year [5] - Retail sales in China rose by 4% from January to November, while factory output increased by 4.8% [5] Market Reactions - Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index fell by 1.3% to 50,168.11, while the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong declined by 1.4% to 25,625.60 [1][7] - Bitcoin's price dropped below $88,000 early Monday from about $92,000, recovering to just over $90,000 later in the day, as higher interest rates are expected to draw investment back into Japan [4]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong's share-sale market has experienced a significant turnaround in 2023, becoming the leading fundraising hub in Asia, with share sales nearly quadrupling to over $73 billion, driven by strong demand from Chinese companies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Share sales in Hong Kong reached more than $73 billion through various methods, making it the top fundraising location in Asia for the first time since 2013, ranking just behind the US globally [2]. - The Hong Kong IPO pipeline is robust, with approximately 300 companies waiting to list, indicating a healthy market outlook [5]. - The Hang Seng Index has gained 29.5% this year, marking its best performance since 2017, although signs of weakness have emerged in the fourth quarter [11]. Group 2: Key Drivers - Chinese companies have been pivotal in driving the share-sale frenzy, with major listings such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. raising $5.3 billion, and both BYD Co. and Xiaomi Corp. raising over $5 billion each [3][8]. - The market has benefited from China's ambitions in artificial intelligence, biotechnology advancements, and efforts to boost domestic demand [8]. - Sectors aligned with China's strategic goals, such as technology and advanced manufacturing, are expected to remain active in pursuing IPOs [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Heavyweight candidates for future listings include companies like Syngenta Group and A.S. Watson Group, alongside potential listings from China's AI sector [9]. - The market's ability to absorb the upcoming supply of IPOs will depend on valuation and broader stock market performance [10]. - Despite the current optimism, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of high valuations, as many newly listed companies in India are trading below their debut prices [15].

Credit Growth and Economic Indicators - Financial institutions extended ¥392 billion ($55.6 billion) of new yuan loans in November, falling short of the median forecast of ¥450 billion, indicating weak credit growth [1][6] - Household loans contracted for the second consecutive month, marking the first such occurrence since 2005, reflecting a trend of net debt repayment by residents due to a bleak job market and deteriorating housing market [1][6] - New medium- and long-term corporate loans weakened compared to the previous year, suggesting a lack of demand for business expansion [2][6] - Bill financing, a tool used by banks to inflate lending, more than doubled, indicating dire business demand [2][6] Future Outlook - Credit growth is expected to remain weak in the coming months, with subdued loan demand anticipated due to elevated real lending rates amid deflation [3][6] - The growth rate of the credit stock accelerated earlier in the year but has slowed recently, attributed to government bond sales and weakening economic momentum [6] EU Import Duties - The European Union finance ministers agreed to impose a three-euro duty on all small parcels imported into the bloc starting July 1, 2026, to address the influx of cheap imports, primarily from China [7][10] - This decision follows the removal of a duty exemption for packages valued under €150 ($174), which was commonly used for direct consumer imports from Chinese platforms [8][10] - In the previous year, 4.6 billion small packages entered the EU, with 91% originating from China, and the EU expects this number to rise [10]

Key economic data for November are set to show China’s domestic demand remained subdued — or even weakened further — offsetting the country’s solid performance in exports https://t.co/GYQofOZNto ...

Economic Policy Meeting - Investors are anticipating a key economic policy meeting with President Xi Jinping and other leaders, seeking signals to sustain the stock rally that has occurred this year [1] - The annual Central Economic Work Conference is crucial as it sets the macroeconomic agenda for the following year, with the market looking for new catalysts to extend its solid performance [1] Fiscal and Monetary Policy Expectations - Investors expect Beijing to maintain a proactive fiscal stance and accommodative monetary policy in 2026, focusing on stronger domestic demand, technological innovation, and reducing excess capacity in the green economy [2] - Analysts highlight that fiscal policy will be a major focus, with potential front-loading of fiscal spending or deficits likely benefiting small-cap and high-beta consumer-discretionary companies, such as retailers [3] Market Performance and Economic Fundamentals - The CSI 300 Index has increased by 17% this year, outperforming the S&P 500's 16% gain, while the technology board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange has surged by 36% [4] - Recent data indicates a broadening economic slowdown and a continued decline in property prices, which has affected the market's ability to build on recent gains [4] Policy Priorities - An earlier Politburo meeting chaired by Xi Jinping has outlined priorities for the upcoming conference, emphasizing domestic consumption and technological self-reliance for 2026, along with continued fiscal expansion and monetary easing [5][6] - The meeting's readout did not specifically address the property sector or capital markets, indicating a potential shift in focus [6]

US-China Trade Dynamics - Chinese companies still rely on the American market, despite double-digit falls in exports to the US over the past eight months [2][3] - China's exports to the US are being rerouted through third countries like Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, and Mexico [3] - If Chinese companies completely lost access to the American market, their profits would significantly decrease [4] China's Economic Strategy - China is diversifying its trade relationships, indicating that the US is not the only market for Chinese goods [4] - The primary focus is on the weakness of Chinese domestic demand and the country's increasing ability to meet its own needs domestically [5] - The Politburo has decided to prioritize boosting domestic demand in 2026 [6] Stimulus and Import Reliance - The expected stimulus is not very large, limiting its impact [8] - Chinese companies are increasingly capable of filling domestic demand gaps, reducing reliance on imports [8][9] - China is less reliant on imports than ever before, diminishing the flow-through effects of domestic rebalancing to foreign countries compared to the 2008 stimulus [9][10]