Core Insights - The report highlights the challenges faced by the U.S. in securing a stable supply chain for critical minerals essential for the energy transition, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles, solar power, and AI data centers [1][2][10] - It emphasizes the need for a balanced approach between domestic production and international cooperation to overcome supply chain vulnerabilities [10][20] Supply and Demand Gap - The U.S. has limited domestic reserves for many critical minerals, leading to a reliance on imports. By 2035, only zinc and molybdenum are projected to achieve supply-demand balance domestically, while significant imports will still be necessary for copper, lithium, and other minerals [2][20] - For copper, the demand is expected to reach nearly 2.92 million tons by 2035, with domestic production only able to meet 180,000 tons, resulting in a shortfall of over 110,000 tons and an import dependency of 62% [2][20] - Lithium demand is projected to exceed 107,000 tons by 2035, with domestic supply only reaching 28,000 tons, leading to an import dependency of over 280% [2][20] Processing and Smelting Challenges - The U.S. faces significant shortcomings in the smelting and processing stages of the supply chain, with only three copper smelting facilities currently operational, which are insufficient to meet domestic processing needs [3][20] - China's expansion in midstream processing capabilities poses a "choke point" risk for the U.S. in the critical minerals supply chain [3][20] Policy Contradictions - Recent U.S. policies, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), aim to bolster domestic mining but simultaneously phase out tax credits that could enhance mining competitiveness, creating a structural dilemma [4][21] - Tariff policies have been inconsistent, leading to market volatility and raising questions about the stability of U.S. mineral policies [4][5][21] Proposed Solutions - The report suggests a comprehensive domestic strategy that integrates the entire mining ecosystem, including streamlined permitting, modern equipment, and efficient logistics networks [6][23] - A "friendshoring" approach is recommended, focusing on partnerships with allies and resource-rich developing countries to diversify supply chains and reduce reliance on any single nation [7][23] - Innovative policy mechanisms, such as guaranteed price contracts with miners, are proposed to provide investment certainty while avoiding the pitfalls of blanket tariffs [8][24] Conclusion - The U.S. must enhance its domestic capabilities while fostering international partnerships to secure a stable supply of critical minerals, balancing resource security with manufacturing competitiveness [10][25]