报告共计：36页 关键矿产困局：美国新能源转型背后的供应链挑战 在新能源汽车、光伏电站、人工智能数据中心这些热门领域，有一种"隐形基石"常常被忽视——关键矿产。从锂电池所需的 锂、钴，到电网建设离不开的铜，再到光伏板要用的银，这些矿产的供应稳定性，直接决定着全球科技与能源转型的节奏。而 作为全球最大经济体之一，美国近年来一直在全力构建自主可控的关键矿产供应链，但一份最新研究报告却揭示了其面临的多 重困境：本土储量有限、政策效果反复、产业链存在明显短板，想要实现"矿产安全"，还需在本土整合与国际合作间找到精准 平衡点。 供需缺口难填：多数关键矿产依赖进口 报告指出，美国虽然在铁、铜、锌等矿产的开采上具备一定基础，比如是全球第五大铜矿生产国、第四大钼矿生产国，但本土 储量远不能满足未来需求。即便是最乐观的情况——所有待投产的矿产项目（包括70万吨新增铜矿、24万吨新增锂矿等）全部 落地，到2035年美国也仅有锌和钼两种关键矿产能实现供需平衡，其余多数矿产仍需大量进口。 具体来看，铜的供需矛盾最为突出。作为电网建设和电池制造的"主力军"，美国2035年铜需求将达到近292万吨，而本土产能即 便满负荷运转也只能提供1 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the trends of reshoring and friendshoring in the context of global supply chains, particularly focusing on the impact of tariffs and geopolitical factors on manufacturing decisions [1][11][12]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Reshoring Trends**: Reshoring has created 2 million jobs in the US over the last 15 years, with a peak of 350,000 jobs in 2022. However, this trend has slowed down since then, particularly in capital-intensive sectors like electronics and transportation, which accounted for 70% of job creation [2][26]. - **Future Expectations**: Only 20% of analysts expect significant reshoring, while 40% anticipate mild relocation to the US, particularly in capital-intensive sectors. Sectors expected to see reshoring include metals & mining and biotechnology [3][39]. - **Labor Concerns**: The availability of qualified labor is a significant concern for reshoring, especially in labor-intensive sectors. More than 50% of analysts indicate that the lack of qualified labor at competitive costs is a barrier [4][50][68]. - **Near/Friendshoring**: There is a growing trend towards near/friendshoring, with analysts identifying Vietnam, Mexico, India, and Thailand as key beneficiaries. This shift is driven by geopolitical risk management rather than cost efficiency [5][46][49]. - **Sector-Specific Impacts**: Tariffs are expected to have sector-specific impacts, with price increases anticipated in industrials and manufacturing, while margin compression is more likely in consumer goods and services [6][82]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Factors**: The shift from globalization to geo-fragmentation reflects a change in how companies allocate capital, prioritizing safety over cost [13][24]. - **Tariff Implications**: The imposition of tariffs is seen as a tool for strategic decoupling from China, with varying impacts across sectors. For instance, the auto sector has been more affected than pharmaceuticals [23][35]. - **Investment Strategies**: Analysts suggest that while tariffs may drive some reshoring, the overall economic feasibility remains questionable, particularly given the high costs associated with US labor and the potential for tariff reversibility [100][138]. - **Automation Trends**: The expectation is that any reshoring will likely involve increased automation, as labor costs in the US are significantly higher than in developing countries [118][119]. Conclusion - The reshoring and friendshoring trends are complex and influenced by a multitude of factors, including tariffs, labor availability, and geopolitical considerations. While there is some optimism for modest reshoring, significant barriers remain, particularly in labor-intensive sectors. The focus is shifting towards strategic relocation to emerging markets as companies navigate the evolving landscape of global trade [46][49][50].

Core Insights - Large organizations in Europe and the US are prioritizing reindustrialization investments to address supply chain pressures, rising tariffs, and trade disputes, focusing on long-term strategies over short-term profitability [2][4][5] Reindustrialization Strategies - Approximately 60% of executives are committed to reindustrialization efforts despite increased costs, with 65% reducing reliance on Chinese products and planning to invest in 'friendshoring' over the next three years [2][10] - Two-thirds of organizations have an active or in-progress reindustrialization strategy, an increase from 59% in 2024 [3] Drivers of Reindustrialization - Supply chain resilience (95%) and proximity to customers (92%) are the top drivers for reindustrialization, with rising tariffs being a significant concern for 93% of executives [5][6] - More than half of executives in key sectors view tariffs as a catalyst for reshoring and reindustrialization efforts [6] Investment Trends - Cumulative investments in reindustrialization are projected to reach $4.7 trillion over the next three years, up from $3.4 trillion in 2024 [8] - Over half of organizations have invested in nearshoring or reshoring, with 35% planning to increase nearshoring investments in 2025 [8][9] Manufacturing Capacity Changes - Onshore and nearshore operations are expected to account for 48% and 24% of total manufacturing capacity, respectively, in the next three years [9] - 'Friendshoring' is anticipated to account for 41% of total manufacturing capacity, increasing from 37% in 2024 [10] Technological Advancements - 62% of organizations are focusing on upgrading manufacturing facilities with advanced technologies, with over half achieving more than 20% cost savings through digital technologies [11] - Critical technologies such as data analytics and AI/Machine Learning are being prioritized to support reindustrialization efforts [12] Sustainability Focus - 73% of organizations believe reindustrialization will promote sustainable and eco-friendly manufacturing practices, a significant increase from 56% in 2024 [13]