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债市生态进化论系列之十五科创债仍有相对价值,尤其是银行间科创债
Ping An Securities· 2025-07-23 10:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The science - innovation bonds still have relative value, especially the inter - bank science - innovation bonds. The scale of science - innovation bond funds is expected to have significant room for improvement, and the total scale of science - innovation bond ETFs focusing on high - grade corporate bonds may reach 139.4 billion yuan this year. The current valuation of science - innovation bonds is not expensive, and the inter - bank science - innovation medium - term notes are relatively more recommended [3][4]. - The premium and discount of science - innovation bond ETFs will bring redemption and arbitrage opportunities. When the premium or discount amplitude exceeds 0.245%, there may be certain arbitrage space. In the short - term rapid bear market of credit bonds, ETFs are expected to be better bottom - fishing tools [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Features and Yield Levels of Science - Innovation Bond ETFs - The first batch of science - innovation bond ETFs have made the yield of component bonds about 7BP lower than that of ordinary corporate bonds on average. These ETFs are an important tool for regulators to support science - innovation bonds this year. With their establishment and the increase in shares, they directly benefit the performance of component bonds and indirectly benefit other exchange - listed bonds of the same issuer. The component bonds of the science - innovation bond index tracked by the first batch of science - innovation bond ETFs are all high - grade public - offering science - innovation corporate bonds listed on the exchange, so these bonds have performed well recently [4][6]. - As of July 15, the component bonds of the benchmark market - making credit bond index were 6.1BP lower than ordinary corporate bonds, the component bonds of the science - innovation bond index were 7BP lower than ordinary corporate bonds, and the general corporate bonds that were component bonds of both indexes were 12.2BP lower than ordinary corporate bonds [4]. 3.2 Comparison of Different Indexes and Bonds - There is a large overlap in the underlying bonds of the first batch of science - innovation bond ETFs and the first batch of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs. There are about 254 bonds included in both the AAA benchmark market - making credit bond index and the three AAA science - innovation bond indexes, with a total scale of 527.7 billion yuan, accounting for about 50% of the total scale of both indexes [7]. - The yield of science - innovation bond index component bonds is significantly lower than that of non - component corporate bonds, and the yield of science - innovation bonds that are component bonds of both types of indexes is even lower. Also, the yield of science - innovation bond index component bonds is lower than that of the same - issuer science - innovation medium - term notes [12]. 3.3 Investment Value of Science - Innovation Bonds - From the perspective of physical bonds, science - innovation bonds still have relative value, and investors are advised to pay more attention to inter - bank science - innovation bonds. The scale of science - innovation bond funds is expected to continue to rise. The current interest rate of science - innovation bonds is slightly higher than that of green bonds, so science - innovation bonds are expected to outperform other bonds in the future [15]. - The yield of science - innovation medium - term notes significantly exceeds that of science - innovation corporate bonds, and as science - innovation bond funds are expected to include inter - bank science - innovation bonds in their investment scope, inter - bank science - innovation bonds may outperform exchange - listed science - innovation bonds in the future [18]. 3.4 Investment Opportunities of Science - Innovation Bond ETFs - The premium and discount of science - innovation bond ETFs will bring two types of investment opportunities at the ETF level: redemption and arbitrage, and discount regression trading. The redemption and arbitrage cost is about 0.245%, so when the premium or discount amplitude of science - innovation bond ETFs exceeds 0.245%, there may be certain arbitrage space. The first batch of science - innovation bond ETFs had a small premium and discount amplitude on the listing day, so it is expected to be difficult to realize arbitrage for the time being [19][22]. - In the short - term rapid bear market of credit bonds, ETFs are expected to be better bottom - fishing tools. It is recommended that investors participate in bottom - fishing opportunities on the right side [4].