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EBITDA或迎来兑现,重视被低估的AIDC
2025-07-07 00:51
Summary of AIDC Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) industry is currently undervalued in the domestic market, with EV/EBITDA valuations typically ranging from 10 to 15 times, compared to 20 to 30 times for international leaders [1][2][7]. Key Points and Arguments - **Valuation Discrepancy**: Domestic AIDC companies are significantly undervalued compared to international counterparts, indicating potential for value reassessment in the domestic market [1][2][7]. - **REITS Performance**: Recent REITS issuances by companies like Runze Technology and GDS Holdings showed high subscription multiples of 167 times and 166 times, respectively, with EV/EBITDA ratios of approximately 14 times and 17 times, highlighting market recognition of AIDC assets [1][5]. - **EBITDA Growth Potential**: Domestic AIDC companies are expected to see sustained EBITDA growth due to large-scale AIDC tender projects scheduled for delivery in the second half of 2025, with significant growth anticipated in 2026 [1][4][10]. - **Impact of ASIC Chips**: The introduction of domestic ASIC chips, which have higher power consumption than advanced process chips, is expected to increase demand for AI DC resources, further driving EBITDA growth in the AIDC sector [1][6]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Strategy**: Investors are advised to increase their positions in AIDC stocks at the current market bottom, as the industry is expected to experience positive changes driven by AI development and ongoing project tenders [3][11]. - **Market Recovery**: The industry faced a slowdown in Q2 due to H20 supply issues, but improvements are anticipated in Q3 and Q4 of 2025 as new domestic chips enter the market and companies adjust their guidance positively [10]. - **Valuation Calculation**: AIDC companies' market value can be estimated using short, medium, and long-term EBITDA projections, with a neutral benchmark of 20 times EV/EBITDA. For instance, Century Internet's projected EV for 2025 is estimated between 552 billion to 564 billion [8]. Future Outlook - The AIDC industry has a promising future, with continuous growth in AI applications expected to drive demand for AIDC services. The ongoing tender projects and the early-stage development of AI will likely lead to increased EBITDA for listed companies [9].
中国铁塔(新):2024 results in-line with expectations; Maintain HOLD-20250318
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-03-18 01:48
Investment Rating - The report maintains a HOLD rating for China Tower with a new target price of HK$13.7, reflecting an upside potential of 11.9% from the current price of HK$12.24 [1][3]. Core Insights - China Tower's FY24 results were in line with expectations, showing a revenue increase of 4.0% YoY to RMB97.8 billion and a net profit increase of 10.0% to RMB10.7 billion [1]. - The Tower segment, which constitutes 77% of total revenue, saw a modest growth of 0.9% YoY, while the DAS and Two Wings segments experienced double-digit growth rates of 18% and 16% YoY, respectively [1][6]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its capital structure through a stock consolidation (1 for 10) announced in February 2025 [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY24 was RMB97.8 billion, with projected revenues of RMB101.8 billion for FY25 and RMB104.4 billion for FY26, indicating a growth rate of 4.1% and 2.5% respectively [2][14]. - Net profit for FY24 was RMB10.7 billion, with estimates of RMB12.1 billion for FY25 and RMB13.7 billion for FY26, reflecting growth rates of 13.0% and 13.2% respectively [2][14]. - The EBITDA for FY24 was RMB66.6 billion, with projections of RMB69.1 billion for FY25 and RMB71.2 billion for FY26 [2][14]. Segment Analysis - The Tower business is expected to remain stable, with a projected low single-digit growth for China telcos from 2025 to 2027 [6]. - The DAS segment is forecasted to grow by 14.0% YoY in 2025 and 11.6% YoY in 2026, driven by market opportunities such as signal strength upgrade projects [6]. - The Two Wings segment, which includes smart tower and energy solutions, is anticipated to grow by 17.5% YoY in 2025 and 16.2% YoY in 2026, bolstered by projects like national disaster alerts [6]. Valuation Metrics - The new target price of HK$13.7 is based on a 4.0x FY25 EV/EBITDA, which aligns with the company's 5-year average forward EV/EBITDA [1][6]. - The report indicates a dividend payout ratio of 76% for 2024, up from previous years, suggesting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [6].