Core Viewpoint - Despite a significant increase in new home sales amounting to approximately 40 trillion yuan from 2022 to 2025, the personal mortgage balance in banks has not only failed to rise but has actually decreased, leading to a discrepancy of about 12.8 trillion yuan in expected mortgage growth [3][5][6]. Group 1: Mortgage Trends - The personal mortgage balance dropped from 38.32 trillion yuan at the end of 2021 to 37.74 trillion yuan by the second quarter of 2025 [4][5]. - Theoretically, based on the new home sales, banks should have seen an increase of around 28 trillion yuan in mortgages, but this did not materialize [5]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - A large-scale deleveraging movement has occurred, with individuals prioritizing paying off their mortgages over other investments or consumption [6][7]. - Many consumers are finding that early repayment of mortgages has become the most stable and profitable financial strategy, especially as returns on other investment vehicles have diminished [13][15]. Group 3: Banking Sector Impact - The influx of funds for mortgage repayment has led to a contraction in banks' expected asset sizes and altered their balance sheet structures [9]. - Banks are facing significant operational pressures due to the high volume of early repayments, which has prompted them to implement measures such as closing online repayment channels and increasing penalties for early repayment [22][24]. Group 4: Policy Responses - In response to the challenges faced by banks and the housing market, various local governments have introduced policies aimed at stabilizing the financial system and supporting the housing market [30][32]. - These measures include increasing loan limits and allowing the use of public funds for various housing-related expenses, indicating a shift in focus from merely facilitating home purchases to ensuring the stability of financial institutions [30][32].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities and potential downsides of early mortgage repayment, suggesting that it may not always be a financially sound decision despite the initial perception of saving on interest payments [1][3][21]. Group 1: Mortgage Rate Changes - The decline in mortgage rates has led to dissatisfaction among early homebuyers who secured loans at higher rates, with the first mortgage rate dropping to around 4.8% and second mortgage rates at 5.4% by 2024 [4]. - Many early borrowers feel they are being unfairly treated as new buyers benefit from lower rates, leading to a sense of being "cut down" [4]. Group 2: Financial Considerations of Early Repayment - Early repayment may seem beneficial for saving on interest, but factors such as prepayment penalties (typically 1% to 5%) and opportunity costs must be considered [6][8]. - For instance, if a borrower repays a loan of 800,000 yuan early, they might incur a penalty of 16,000 yuan if the penalty rate is 2% [6]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Investment Opportunities - The current low yield environment in the financial market, with bank products yielding around 3%, makes early mortgage repayment appear as a stable, low-risk option [14]. - However, locking funds into early repayment may prevent participation in potentially higher-return investments in the future [16]. Group 4: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The ongoing decline in property prices since 2022 has created pressure for homeowners, making early repayment seem like a way to alleviate financial stress [18]. - If homeowners plan to hold onto their properties long-term, short-term price fluctuations may be less significant, but those considering selling may face increased losses if property values continue to drop [18]. Group 5: Inflation Considerations - High inflation rates can make long-term fixed-rate loans a hedge against inflation, as the real value of the loan decreases over time [20].