Let's show you the markets. You'll see exactly what I'm talking about. It really didn't look like that, but 10 minutes ago was red, flatish.Now, we've gotten a nice move kind of everywhere uh in the market. So, there are questions about the durability of the ceasefire. I think everybody can understand that.Um even so, there are some folks like fund strats Tom Lee who say enough positive things have happened that the worst is clearly behind this market. Here's what he told me yesterday on Closing Bell. the b ...

Core Viewpoint - Charles Schwab Corporation is a significant player in the U.S. financial services sector, with a market capitalization of $166.44 billion, providing a range of services including brokerage, banking, and wealth management [1] Financial Performance Expectations - The company is anticipated to report a profit of $1.34 per share for Q1 of fiscal 2026, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 28.9% [3] - For the full fiscal year 2026, analysts project a diluted EPS growth of 19.3% to $5.81, followed by a 15.5% increase to $6.71 in fiscal 2027 [3] Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, Charles Schwab's stock has increased by 17.6%, although it has declined by 4.9% year-to-date [3] - In comparison, the S&P 500 Index has risen by 14.1% over the past 52 weeks but has decreased by 3.7% year-to-date [3] - The State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF has seen a decline of 2.2% over the past 52 weeks and 9.9% year-to-date, indicating that Charles Schwab has outperformed its sector [4] Recent Developments - The company recently completed a $660 million acquisition of Forge Global, enhancing access to pre-IPO companies for eligible customers [5] - In 2025, Charles Schwab's results were bolstered by a 6% year-over-year growth in client accounts, reaching 46.5 million, and a record total client asset base of $11.90 trillion [5]

Core Insights - Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) is facing ongoing cost pressures that are expected to influence its earnings trajectory in fiscal 2026, primarily due to higher dry dock expenses and regulatory costs [1][3] Cost Outlook - Management has projected cruise costs, excluding fuel per available lower berth day, to increase by approximately 3.25% year over year, or about 2.5% on a normalized basis, following a 2.6% rise in fiscal 2025 [1][8] - Dry dock activity is anticipated to significantly contribute to the cost increase, with 604 dry dock days planned for fiscal 2026, and a shift in spending classification impacting year-over-year cost comparisons [2][8] - Regulatory costs, including expenses related to emission allowances and higher income taxes from global minimum tax frameworks, are expected to impact fiscal 2026 earnings by approximately $0.11 per share [3] Cost Mitigation Efforts - Carnival is emphasizing cost mitigation initiatives and operational efficiencies, expecting about 1.1% in cost mitigation from these measures, which aim to offset inflation and other expense drivers [4] - Additional support is anticipated from lower net interest expenses and favorable fuel and currency dynamics [4] Earnings Guidance - For fiscal 2026, Carnival is guiding for net income exceeding $3.45 billion, representing an increase of over 12% year over year, alongside yield growth of approximately 2.5% to 3% [5][8] - Despite the anticipated cost pressures, management believes these will not hinder earnings growth in fiscal 2026 [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - CCL shares have declined by 17.1% over the past three months, compared to a 10.4% decline in the industry [6] - CCL is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 10.18, significantly below the industry average of 15.36 [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Carnival's fiscal 2026 earnings per share has seen a decline over the past 30 days, with projections indicating a 7.6% rise in fiscal 2026 earnings [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has set a price target of $89 for Xcel Energy, maintaining a Buy rating, arguing that the recent stock selloff has undervalued the company despite its strong earnings growth potential and upcoming catalysts [3][4]. Financial Performance - Xcel Energy (XEL) is currently trading at $76.75, reflecting a 5.73% decline over the past week, with a projected EPS for 2026 between $4.04 and $4.16 [2]. - The company has achieved a 14% gain over the past year, with analysts estimating a consensus target of $88.44 [4]. Growth Drivers - Xcel's $60 billion capital plan focuses on transmission and renewable energy, supporting regulated utility earnings growth [12]. - The data center pipeline has doubled to 6 GW by the end of 2027, with partnerships including Google, indicating strong demand growth [12]. - Xcel has consistently increased its dividend for 23 years, with a current quarterly payout of $0.5925 per share and an annual yield near 3.1%, targeting annual increases of 4% to 6% [12]. Risks and Challenges - Key execution risks include wildfire liabilities, particularly from the Smokehouse Creek Fire, with estimated losses of $430 million before insurance [7]. - Ongoing litigation in Texas poses additional regulatory risks [8]. Market Sentiment - UBS believes that the market has overly discounted wildfire and regulatory concerns, suggesting that the risks are largely priced in [5][8]. - Insider activity is trending towards net buying, indicating positive sentiment among company insiders [8].

Core Insights - Corporate profitability remains robust as the 2025 fourth-quarter earnings season concludes, with the Tech sector showing significant improvement [1] Group 1: Tech Sector Performance - The Tech sector has been a major driver of overall earnings growth since Q3 2023 and is expected to continue this trend into Q1 2026, with S&P 500 earnings projected to grow 11.3% year over year in Q1, dropping to 5% when excluding Tech [4] - Despite ongoing geopolitical risks and concerns over software demand, the Tech sector, particularly the "Mag 7," has maintained its position as a strong profitability engine within the S&P 500, supported by consistent positive estimate revisions [2][3] Group 2: Estimate Revisions and Sector Support - The strong revisions trend in the Tech sector has positively influenced overall estimate revisions, helping to offset weaknesses in other sectors. Alongside Tech, Finance, Industrial Products, and Business Services have also seen upward revisions to their Q1 2026 earnings estimates since October 2025 [5] Group 3: ETFs in Focus - Several technology-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are highlighted for potential investment, including: - Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT), which is heavily weighted towards NVIDIA (17.47%), Apple (14.89%), and Microsoft (12.19%) [7] - VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), focused on semiconductor companies, with significant holdings in NVIDIA (18.44%) and Taiwan Semiconductor (10.48%) [8] - iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV), which includes major software companies like Microsoft (9.55%) and Palantir (8.24%) [11] - First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR), which tracks companies in the cybersecurity sector, with key holdings in Cisco (9.63%) and Infosys (8.64%) [12]

Core Insights - Ironvine Capital Partners emphasizes that long-term equity returns are driven by underlying earnings growth, with portfolio businesses increasing earnings by 12% to 16% in 2025 and compounding profits at approximately 15% to 18% annually over the past nine years [1] - The firm anticipates another year of mid-teens earnings growth in 2026, supported by competitive advantages, reinvestment opportunities, and industry tailwinds [1] - The Ironvine Concentrated Equity Composite returned 11.27% in 2025, while the Ironvine Core Equity Composite gained 9.68%, compared to the S&P 500 Index's return of 17.88% [1] Portfolio Highlights - Major portfolio holdings are benefiting from trends in cloud computing, aerospace maintenance, datacenter and semiconductor growth linked to artificial intelligence, resilient credit markets, digitization of payments, and demand for enterprise software and risk-management services [1] - Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRK-B) is highlighted as a key stock, with a one-month return of -3.36% and a market capitalization of approximately $1.04 trillion as of March 19, 2026 [2] - Berkshire's new CEO, Greg Abel, faces challenges in managing the company's cash and equity portfolio, especially as shares are not undervalued compared to previous years [3]

Core Insights - Earnings growth is essential for organizational survival, impacting share prices significantly [1][2] - Companies such as Five Below, TechnipFMC, and HBT Financial are demonstrating strong earnings growth [1][9] Earnings Estimates & Share Price Movements - Stock prices may decline despite earnings growth if they fail to meet market expectations [2] - Earnings estimates are influenced by sales growth, product demand, competitive environment, profit margins, and cost control, serving as a valuable investment decision tool [3] Investment Strategy - Investors should focus on stocks with a history of earnings growth and rising quarterly and annual earnings estimates [4] - Screening measures include Zacks Rank, historical EPS growth, and recent estimate revisions to identify promising stocks [5][6] Company Highlights - Five Below, a specialty value retailer, projects a 25% earnings growth rate for the current year and holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [7][9] - TechnipFMC, providing technologies for oil and gas projects, expects an 18.4% earnings growth rate and also holds a Zacks Rank 1 [9][10] - HBT Financial, a bank holding company, forecasts a 19.1% earnings growth rate and has a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [9][11]

Core Insights - Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) shares have increased by 33.3% over the past year, outperforming the industry which declined by 0.9% [1] - The Finance sector has returned 9.7%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has appreciated by 23.1% during the same period [1] Performance Comparison - Cboe Global has outperformed peers such as CME Group Inc. (CME), Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ), and Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) [2] - CME shares increased by 17.5%, NDAQ by 14.8%, while ICE shares decreased by 7% in the same timeframe [2] Market Metrics - Cboe Global has a market capitalization of $30.65 billion, with an average trading volume of 0.8 million shares over the last three months [3] - The company has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 4.39% [3] Technical Analysis - CBOE shares closed at $292.89, trading above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages of $278.44 and $251.10, indicating strong upward momentum [4] Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cboe Global's 2026 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 6.7%, with revenues expected to reach $2.55 billion, reflecting a 4.9% improvement [5] - For 2027, earnings per share and revenues are projected to increase by 7.4% and 4.4%, respectively, compared to 2026 estimates [5] Long-term Growth Expectations - Long-term earnings growth is expected to be 13.8%, surpassing the industry average of 11.2% [6] - Earnings have grown by 14.7% over the past five years, also better than the industry average of 10.6% [6] Analyst Sentiment - Six out of twelve analysts covering CBOE have raised their estimates for 2026 and 2027 in the past 60 days, leading to a 3% and 3.7% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for those years [7] Revenue Diversification - Cboe Global benefits from diversified revenues and recurring non-transaction income streams, projecting mid-to-high single-digit growth in Data Vantage driven by demand and global expansion [10][12] - The company has achieved a broader global service offering and new distribution channels, enhancing revenue generation and cost synergies through strategic acquisitions [13] Financial Management - Cboe Global is strengthening its balance sheet by improving cash position and reducing debt, with favorable leverage ratios compared to industry averages [13] - The company has a solid capital management strategy supporting its strategic investments, although higher expenses remain a concern [14] Currency and Credit Risks - Cboe Global's investments in European, Canadian, and Asia Pacific operations are exposed to currency exchange rate volatility and credit risk from third parties [15] Dividend and Share Repurchase - CBOE increased its dividend by 14% to 72 cents per share in August 2025, marking the 15th consecutive year of dividend hikes [17] - As of December 31, 2025, the company had $614.5 million available under existing share repurchase authorizations, positioning it well for business investments and opportunistic share repurchases [17] Investment Outlook - With optimistic analyst sentiment and favorable growth estimates, the current environment appears favorable for potential investors in CBOE [18]

Group 1: Market Performance - Megacap tech has been the dominant U.S. equity strategy for several years, while small caps have lagged since 2021, peaking relative to the S&P 500 about a decade ago [1] - The S&P 600 Small Cap Index experienced year-over-year earnings growth of -10% or worse for six consecutive quarters from Q1 2023 to Q2 2024, only turning positive again in Q2 2025 [3] Group 2: Earnings Growth Forecast - The S&P 600 is forecasted to generate 29% year-over-year earnings growth in Q4 of this year, compared to 28% for the Nasdaq-100, indicating that small-cap earnings growth may soon outpace that of the tech sector [5] - If the S&P 500 achieves its forecast of 11% earnings growth in Q1 2026, it would mark the 11th consecutive quarter of positive year-over-year earnings growth and the sixth straight quarter of double-digit growth [2] Group 3: Valuation Analysis - The iShares Core S&P Small Cap ETF trades at a P/E ratio of 18, while the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF trades at a P/E ratio of 28, reflecting a significant valuation gap due to subpar earnings from small caps [6] - The valuation gap between small caps and the S&P 500 has not narrowed significantly despite similar forward earnings growth expectations, suggesting that small caps may be undervalued [7] - There is potential for small caps to unlock value and possibly outperform large caps in the future, although similar P/E ratios are not expected soon [8]

So let's talk about what we've seen so far. 5% move on stocks, 60 basis points of widening on high yield spreads from the tights of the year so far. Is that a sign of resilience or complacency.>> You know, I do think the markets are probably a bit complacent given the move that we've seen in energy markets. We've always said to clients when it comes to geopolitics. Geopolitics rarely have long-term impacts on markets, but we have to acknowledge that particularly when energy is at the center of the storm her ...