Treasuries edged lower after data showed the US economy expanded at the fastest pace in two years, denting expectations for interest-rate cuts in 2026 https://t.co/blRiJKnTWF ...

New Zealand business confidence soared to a three-decade high in December and the mood of consumers also surged, adding to signs of further economic expansion in the fourth quarter and into 2026 https://t.co/9g6vgSh4Ib ...

Core Insights - The performance of cyclical stocks is closely tied to the economy's health, with prices rising during expansions and falling during downturns [2] - Despite facing inflation, labor market slack, and supply chain issues, the U.S. economy shows resilience, rebounding from a 0.6% GDP contraction in Q1 to a 3.8% growth in Q2 [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts and easing monetary policies are expected to benefit cyclical stocks by reducing borrowing costs and stimulating demand [5] Company Summaries - **Crocs, Inc. (CROX)**: A leading footwear brand focusing on comfort and style, with a Zacks Rank 1. The company aims to exceed $5 billion in annual revenues by 2026, representing a CAGR of over 17% [8][9]. Recent earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have improved by 1.6% and 8.6%, respectively, despite a 19.5% decline in shares over the past year [10] - **G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. (GIII)**: A global fashion entity with a Zacks Rank 2, transitioning towards higher-margin owned brands. The company expects significant growth in its Donna Karan brand, with sales projected to grow nearly 40% in fiscal 2026 [13][14]. Earnings estimates for fiscal 2026 and 2027 have increased by 6.3% and 3.4%, respectively, with shares rebounding 48.6% in the past six months [15] - **Dover Corp. (DOV)**: An industrial conglomerate with a Zacks Rank 2, experiencing healthy booking growth across most segments. The company has reported year-over-year booking growth in seven of the past eight quarters, driven by strong demand and operational resilience [17][18]. Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have increased by 1.3% and 1.1%, respectively, with shares gaining 11.4% in the past six months [19]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained interest rates at 2% for the fourth consecutive meeting, reflecting stable inflation around the target level and resilience in the euro zone against global economic shocks [1] Economic Outlook - The ECB's decision was accompanied by new forecasts indicating stronger economic growth and an expectation for inflation to return to 2% by 2028, after being below this level in the next two years [1]

Core Insights - The Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF (VO) is considered a staple investment due to its balanced exposure to companies of various sizes, which each offer unique advantages [2] - Mid-cap stocks are positioned between large-cap stability and small-cap growth potential, providing a favorable risk-reward profile [6] Investment Strategy - Long-term investment in ETFs is preferred, with a focus on maintaining a diversified portfolio to navigate different economic conditions [1][8] - The performance of VO since its inception in January 2004 has closely mirrored that of the S&P 500, with returns of 488% compared to the S&P 500's 490% [7] Market Dynamics - Large-cap stocks offer stability due to their established market presence and financial resources, while small-cap stocks present growth opportunities but come with higher risks [4][5] - Mid-cap stocks tend to outperform during early to mid-stages of economic expansion, making them an attractive investment during these periods [8][9]

France’s economy will continue to expand in the fourth quarter despite heightened political and budget uncertainty continuing to weigh on businesses, the central bank said https://t.co/qA2yqsgvAv ...

Spain’s economy is likely to maintain the rapid expansion that’s made it Europe’s standout performer, according to central-bank Governor Jose Luis Escriva https://t.co/YbmqCi6dS5 ...

Economic Growth - Saudi Arabia's economy experienced its fastest expansion since early 2023 in the third quarter [1] - The growth was driven by increased oil production and substantial state investments in non-oil sectors [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - US stock futures are rebounding as traders increase interest rate bets following comments from Fed Chair Powell, alongside a strong start to the corporate earnings season [1][4] - Gold prices have reached a new record of $4,200 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and strong demand [2][21] - The Dow is expected to open about half a percent higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.75% and NASDAQ leading gains [5][4] Group 2: Bank Earnings - Morgan Stanley reported a 35% increase in trading revenue and a 44% boost in investment banking fees, while Bank of America saw a 43% increase in investment banking fees to $2 billion [2][7][9] - Bank of America also reported an 8% rise in client trading to $5.3 billion, indicating strong investor activity [8] - Both banks' strong earnings are attributed to a resurgence in deal-making and a record high rally in equity markets [11][34] Group 3: ASML Earnings - ASML reported strong demand driven by AI infrastructure spending, with bookings of approximately $6.3 billion for the quarter [3][14] - The company faces risks related to US export restrictions on chip sales to China, but it remains optimistic about future sales [3][15] - ASML's stock price increased over 4% in pre-market trading, reflecting positive market sentiment [13] Group 4: Trade Tensions - President Trump has threatened to end cooking oil purchases from China amid escalating trade tensions, which could impact US soybean exports [17][18] - China has not purchased any American soybeans recently, a significant drop from $12.8 billion worth last year [18][19] - The ongoing trade spat raises questions about the future of US-China trade talks and potential meetings between leaders [20] Group 5: Precious Metals Market - Gold has seen a 60% increase year-to-date, with predictions of reaching $5,000 by 2026 and possibly $10,000 by the end of the decade [22][24] - Silver prices have risen 75% year-to-date, driven by speculative inflows and a smaller market size compared to gold [26][27] - Goldman Sachs notes a supply crunch in the silver market, contributing to price increases [27] Group 6: Corporate Developments - Stellantis announced a $13 billion investment in the US, aiming to create over 5,000 jobs and increase domestic production by 50% [29] - Dollar Tree projected a compound annual growth rate of up to 15% in earnings per share over the next three years [30] - Papa John's shares rose following a reported bid from Apollo Global to take the company private at $64 per share, valuing it around $2 billion [32]

Market Analysis and Bitcoin Cycle - Bitcoin continues to trade within a range, with the lower end of the support range presenting buying opportunities [1] - The traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, driven by the halving, may now be a five-year cycle, potentially peaking in Q2 2026 [2] - The Bitcoin cycle is correlated with the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) business cycle, a key indicator of US economic activity [3][4][5] - The current elongated business cycle, unlike previous cycles, is attributed to the extension of debt maturity from four to five years in 2021-2022 [8][9] - The average weighted maturity of the debt is 5.4 years, suggesting the ISM should peak by 2026 [10] - Despite the ISM remaining below 50, indicating economic contraction, any dips in Bitcoin price are considered buying opportunities, similar to patterns observed in 2015-16 and 2019-20 [11][12] Altcoin and AI Investment Opportunities - A new BitTensor fund has been launched, focusing on TOAO and BitTensor subnet alpha tokens, highlighting the potential of AI-related altcoins [12][13] - BitTensor subnets are providing AI models and companion apps at significantly reduced costs compared to traditional services like AWS [14] - SUI is positioned to dominate agentic commerce, particularly in AI-driven transactions, and has partnered with Google on AP2, an agentic payments framework [16][17] Swissborg (Borg) Token Buyback Program - Swissborg is using 50% of trading fees to buy back the Borg token, creating buy pressure [20][21] - Based on the previous week's stats, this equates to $400,000 weekly, $1.6 million monthly, and $20 million annually in buy pressure [21] - The buyback program could potentially pump Borg by 50% in a single week, given current liquidity and price impact [22]