Thursday, August 21, 2025Pre-market futures are sliding back into the red at this hour, on less-than-stellar numbers out this morning for Weekly Jobless Claims, Philly Fed and Walmart earnings. The Dow is -157 points currently, the S&P 500 is -24, the Nasdaq -90 and the small-cap Russell 2000 is -12. Over the past five trading days, these major indexes are down between -1% (Dow) and -3% (Nasdaq).Economic Prints Ahead of the Bell: Jobless Claims, Philly FedInitial Jobless Claims are out this Thursday morning ...

Among China’s striking set of economic indicators for July was the weakest reading on fixed asset investment — outside of Covid — since at least the late 1990s https://t.co/Mn9YUSIq3K ...

Forget the lipstick or hemline indexes: It’s cardboard box shipments that offer some of the best real-time economic hints https://t.co/eCg3JBkDWu ...

Global Economic Trends - The former first world is largely becoming the descending world [2] - Much of the former third world is now the ascending world [2] - Edelman's numbers correlate with GDP figures and visible improvements in countries like Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, India, and China [1] Data Reliability - There are potential concerns regarding the accuracy of Edelman's numbers for specific regions, such as Nigeria and Kenya [1]

U.S. Stock Market Performance - U.S. stocks traded lower, with the Dow Jones down approximately 1.5% on Friday, closing at 43,488.38, while the NASDAQ fell 2.38% to 20,620.55 and the S&P 500 dropped 1.76% to 6,227.60 [1] - Consumer staples shares increased by 0.9%, while consumer discretionary stocks decreased by 3.4% on the same day [1] Amazon Financial Results - Amazon.com Inc. shares fell around 8% after reporting second-quarter net sales of $167.7 billion, which is a 13% year-over-year increase, surpassing the Street consensus estimate of $161.9 billion [2] Commodity Market Trends - Oil prices decreased by 2% to $67.86, while gold prices increased by 1.4% to $3,396.30. Silver rose by 0.6% to $36.945, and copper increased by 1% to $4.3995 [5] European Market Performance - European shares declined, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 falling 1.79%, Spain's IBEX 35 Index down 1.83%, London's FTSE 100 down 0.80%, Germany's DAX 40 declining 2.36%, and France's CAC 40 falling 2.73% [6] Asian Market Performance - Asian markets closed lower, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 0.66%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 1.07%, China's Shanghai Composite down 0.37%, and India's BSE Sensex down 0.72% [7] Notable Stock Movements - Tenon Medical, Inc. shares surged 75% to $1.7500 following the acquisition of sacroiliac joint-specific assets from SiVantage [9] - Performant Healthcare, Inc. shares increased by 114% to $7.59 after an acquisition agreement for $670 million [9] - Alphatec Holdings, Inc. shares rose 26% to $13.36 after raising FY2025 sales guidance above estimates [9] - Fluor Corporation shares dropped 31% to $39.35 after reporting second-quarter results below estimates and lowering FY25 adjusted EPS guidance [9] - Silexion Therapeutics Corp shares fell 35% to $9.75 after announcing the exercise of warrants for $1.8 million gross proceeds [9] - Insperity, Inc. shares decreased by 23% to $45.98 after reporting worse-than-expected quarterly results and issuing weak guidance [9] Economic Indicators - U.S. construction spending declined by 0.4% to an annualized rate of $2.136 trillion in June [11] - The ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48 in July from 49 in June, missing market estimates of 49.5 [11] - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index slipped to 61.7 in July from a preliminary reading of 61.8 [11] - The S&P Global manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 49.8 in July from a preliminary reading of 49.5 [11]

Societal Insights - Rankings variations between measures can reveal societal characteristics [1] - Countries with very old or young populations often perform better when incomes are adjusted for hours worked [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative skew in economic data surprises across developed markets (DMs) [2][4]. Core Insights - The GS Macro Data Assessment (MAP) Surprise Indices have turned negative across DMs over the last several weeks, indicating a decline in economic performance relative to expectations [2][4]. - The Global Financial Conditions Index (FCI) has eased primarily due to movements in equities and credit spreads, suggesting tighter financial conditions impacting growth [9][30]. - The Current Activity Indicator (CAI) for June shows a global value of +1.9%, with emerging markets performing better than developed markets [49][46]. Summary by Sections Economic Indicators - The MAP surprise indices reflect a negative trend in economic indicators across multiple developed countries, suggesting a downturn in economic activity [2][4]. - The CAI for June indicates a +1.9% growth globally, with emerging markets like India and China showing stronger performance compared to developed markets [49][46]. Financial Conditions - The Global ex Russia FCI has eased, primarily influenced by equity markets and credit spreads, indicating a tightening of financial conditions that could affect GDP growth [9][30]. - The report highlights that the FCI levels across various countries have shown significant changes, with notable tightening in regions like China and Turkey [37][30]. GDP Forecasts - The report presents changes in GDP forecasts for 2025, with Vietnam projected to grow by 1.9%, while the US shows a downward adjustment [92][93]. - The GDP forecast adjustments reflect a broader trend of declining growth expectations across developed markets compared to emerging markets [92][93].

The Bureau of Labour Statistics is required by Congress to produce core economic indicators. But funding cuts mean estimates are now less reliable https://t.co/Cj33KvVZvg ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The China Current Activity Indicator (CAI) decreased to +4.3% month-on-month annualized seasonally adjusted in May from +4.6% in April, indicating a slight slowdown in economic activity [7] - The weakening in CAI was primarily driven by the manufacturing sector, suggesting challenges in this area [12] - The import-implied domestic demand proxy indicates largely stable growth in recent months, reflecting resilience in domestic consumption [9] - The Financial Conditions Index (FCI) eased in May, mainly due to foreign exchange depreciation against a trade-weighted basket, which may impact liquidity conditions [27][24] - The report anticipates a faster pace of government bond issuance in the coming months, with an additional RMB1 trillion quota expected to be approved [36] Summary by Relevant Sections Economic Indicators - The CAI fell to +4.3% in May, down from +4.6% in April, indicating a deceleration in economic momentum [7] - Manufacturing and construction growth proxies both declined in May, highlighting sector-specific weaknesses [13] Domestic Demand - The import-implied domestic demand proxy suggests stable growth, indicating that domestic consumption remains resilient despite external pressures [9] Financial Conditions - The FCI eased in May, primarily driven by FX depreciation, which may affect overall economic liquidity [27][24] - The growth impact of FCI impulse is expected to turn positive from Q2 onwards, suggesting potential recovery in economic activity [12] Government Policy - The report notes a slight tightening in the domestic macro policy proxy in May, driven by a narrower fiscal deficit, which may influence future economic stimulus measures [35] - An increase in government bond issuance is projected, with expectations of an additional RMB1 trillion quota to be approved [36]

Economic Indicators - Global hard data shows resilience while soft data normalizes, indicating a stable economic environment[3] - The Global Financial Conditions Index (FCI) eased primarily due to equities, short rates, and credit spreads, reflecting tighter financial conditions[8] - The Current Activity Indicator (CAI) for May shows a global increase of +1.6% month-on-month annualized, with emerging markets leading at +3.6%[12][47] GDP Forecasts - Goldman Sachs revised its GDP forecast for 2025, with notable increases in Japan and the Euro Area, while Canada saw a decrease[10][93] - The change in GDP forecast since 60 days ago shows Taiwan with an increase of +1.9 percentage points, while Turkey increased by +1.2 percentage points in the last week[10][93] Inflation Trends - The trimmed core inflation forecast for 2025 indicates a decrease across several regions, with Turkey showing the largest increase of +1.9 percentage points[88][90] - The inflation forecast for 2026 also reflects similar trends, with notable adjustments in various countries, including a decrease in the UK and Canada[90][91] Labor Market Insights - The jobs-workers gap has shown significant changes since December 2019, with the US and UK experiencing notable declines[21][70] - Wage trackers indicate a steady increase in wage growth across G10 economies, with the US showing a composition-adjusted increase[63][64]