Trading may be somewhat subdued on the first trading day of 2026 on Friday. Early signs from the U.S. Futures Index suggest that Wall Street might open positive. Asian shares finished lower, European shares are trading mostly up. In the Asian trading session, the dollar made a feeble start to 2026. Oil climbed, while gold jumped nearly 1.5 percent.This week, the U.S. payrolls report and jobless data may provide additional clues on interest-rates. As of 7.30 am ET, the Dow futures were adding 196.00 points, ...

U.S. stocks traded higher this morning, with the Dow Jones index gaining around 400 points on Thursday.The Dow traded up 0.84% to 48,289.58 while the NASDAQ jumped 1.53% to 23,040.25. The S&P 500 also rose, gaining, 1.09% to 6,794.36.Check This Out: Wall Street’s Most Accurate Analysts Give Their Take On 3 Materials Stocks Delivering High-Dividend YieldsLeading and Lagging SectorsConsumer discretionary shares rose by 1.6% on Thursday.In trading on Thursday, energy stocks fell by 0.8%.Top HeadlineAccenture ( ...

🇺🇸 JUST IN: US inflation cooled to 2.7%, below market expectations. ...

Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November is expected to increase by 0.3 percent, with the release scheduled for 8:30 am ET [3] - Jobless Claims for the week are anticipated to be 225K, down from 236K in the prior week [3] - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for December is forecasted to rise by 2.2, following a decrease of 1.7 in November [3] - The third quarter Current Account deficit was $251.3 billion in the prior quarter [4] - E-Commerce Retail Sales for the third quarter showed a 1.4 percent increase in the previous quarter [4] - Leading Indicators for November are expected to be down 0.3 percent from the prior month [5] - The EIA's Natural Gas Report indicated a decrease of 177 bcf in gas stock in the prior week [5] Market Performance - Asian shares mostly finished lower, with the Shanghai Composite index up by 0.16 percent to 3,876.37 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index slightly higher at 25,498.13 [5] - Japanese markets hit three-week lows, with the Nikkei average falling 1.03 percent to 49,001.50 and the broader Topix index down 0.37 percent to 3,356.89 [6] - European shares are trading mostly higher, with the CAC 40 Index up 17.23 points or 0.21 percent, the DAX gaining 62.05 points or 0.26 percent, and the FTSE 100 Index progressing 1.52 points or 0.02 percent [6][7] - The Swiss Market Index added 19.19 points or 0.15 percent, while the Euro Stoxx 50 Index increased by 22.41 points or 0.39 percent [7] Futures Market - As of 7:30 am ET, Dow futures were up 85.00 points, S&P 500 futures added 26.75 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures progressed 196.25 points [2]

U.S. retail sales decelerated this fall, the Census Bureau said Tuesday https://t.co/C1pqcvBoF6 ...

#数据中国11月官方制造业PMI为49.2，预期49.3，前值49.0；非制造业PMI为49.5，预期50.0，跌至荣枯线下方；综合PMI为49.7，前值50.0。 https://t.co/DDI79QM5Zv ...

Typically I'd bullpost the Black Friday sales figures, butA couple anecdotal Chicago economic indicators are flashing red- Christmas Tea at the Drake Hotel at 60% capacity on Black Friday- Walnut Room reservations wide open all weekendSmall sample size and hyper local, but not the best sign*Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone):U.S. BLACK FRIDAY SALES HIT RECORD HIGHU.S. online Black Friday sales reached a record $11.8 billion, up 9.1% from last year, according to Adobe Analytics. Adobe expects Americans to spend $5 ...

We have ranked members of the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries, according to their closeness to Britain on ten chosen indicators.This is who comes out top: https://t.co/7ygkmZBW47 ...

Economic Overview - The recent government shutdown has created a significant data gap, complicating economic assessments and Federal Reserve decisions [1][2][10][11] - The return of government workers is expected to lead to a flood of economic data, which is crucial for market and policy analysis [2][12] Employment - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs report is a key indicator of the labor market and household earnings, essential for forecasting economic activity [3] - The August jobs report indicated job gains fell to 22,000, missing the consensus of 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [6] - The labor market's stability is under scrutiny, especially with rising unemployment risks highlighted by the Federal Reserve [6] Inflation - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a critical measure of price stability, with the latest report showing a year-over-year increase of 3.0%, driven by energy costs, while Core CPI also cooled to 3.0% [4][7] - The Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions is hindered by the lack of recent CPI data, particularly as inflation pressures may be easing [7][10] Retail Sales - Retail sales data is vital as consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the economy, with retail sales representing nearly one-third of that [5] - August retail sales exceeded expectations, rising 0.6% month-over-month, indicating underlying consumer momentum despite concerns over rising credit card debt and dwindling savings [7] Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - GDP is a key quarterly indicator of economic activity, with the second quarter showing a real GDP increase at an annual rate of 3.8%, surpassing the forecast of 3.3% [8][14] - The upcoming third-quarter GDP estimate will provide insights into economic momentum prior to the shutdown [14] Private Data Insights - Despite the shutdown, private data collection continued, suggesting a weak economic forecast, which may impact the interpretation of upcoming reports [9] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's recent decisions have been made without complete data, leading to a reactionary stance rather than a proactive approach [10][12] - The delay in data reporting increases the risk of policy errors as the Fed navigates a complex economic landscape [12]

Market Cycle Analysis - The crypto market has historically followed the business cycle, potentially extending into 2026, suggesting a prolonged bull market [2] - Macro analysts suggest the crypto market cycle is no longer solely based on Bitcoin halving but correlates with the economic cycle, particularly the ISM Manufacturing Index [6][7] - The ISM, an indicator of economic activity, has historically correlated with Bitcoin's cycle tops and bottoms, but this pattern has recently broken [9][10] - An extended debt refinancing cycle, with average debt maturity increasing to approximately 54 years due to the pandemic, may be extending the liquidity and crypto cycles [12] Liquidity and Economic Indicators - Some analysts argue that economic indicators like the ISM are misleading and have unclear correlation with global liquidity [16] - Global liquidity, measured by Global M2, has risen, but Bitcoin's price has flatlined, weakening the correlation between the two [18] - Central bank policies and debt refinancing challenges could lead to a contraction in global liquidity, potentially impacting the crypto market [20][21] - Economic data may be deceptive due to factors like inflation and unemployment rates, making the economy appear stronger than it is [26][27] Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The crypto market is expected to continue a gradual upward trend, mirroring the overall economy [40] - Assuming a recession is avoided, Q4 2025 is projected to be bullish, with Bitcoin potentially reaching its cycle top, followed by Ethereum and altcoins approximately one month later [47][48] - The current crypto market cycle differs from previous cycles due to less loose monetary policy, more mature regulatory frameworks, and different patterns of retail participation [44][45] - AI-related ventures have significantly contributed to economic growth, particularly in the US, impacting sectors like chip manufacturing and infrastructure [36][37]