So good news on the labor market front. Just 205,000 jobless claims last week, as you pointed out. So the low, higher, low fired economy continues.And Jay Powell suggested that the labor market might be in better shape than we think at this point because the unemployment rate is not moving a lot. We did see the Philadelphia Fed index come out much stronger than expected at 18.1%, up from 16 three. The expectation was it was going to be cut in half to just 8.0%.However, prices paid rise to 44.7% from 38.9%. ...

China’s main economic indicators fared better than forecast to start the year, in a sign that momentum was improving before the war in Iran roiled the outlook for global growth and inflation https://t.co/zapH2DIDeO ...

Market Overview - The Nasdaq has experienced gains over the past month but is showing signs of decline in early trading today, while the Dow is on track for its third consecutive down week [1] - Current market performance shows the Dow down by 403 points (-0.85%), the S&P 500 down by 44 points (-0.65%), and the Nasdaq down by 157 points (-0.63%) [2] Economic Reports - Initial Jobless Claims remain stable at 213K, slightly down from the previous week's revised figure of 214K, indicating a consistent low hire/low fire dynamic [3] - Continuing Claims are reported at 1.850 million, down from the previous week's revised 1.871 million, reflecting a stable job market [4] - January Housing Starts reported at 1.487 million, exceeding expectations of 1.35 million and marking the highest tally since February of last year [5] - Building Permits lagged behind expectations at 1.376 million, lower than the projected 1.41 million and the previous month's revised 1.46 million, indicating a potential slowdown in future housing starts [6] - The U.S. Trade Deficit for January was reported at -$54.5 billion, better than the expected figure and the best since October of last year, following a downward revision from December's -$72.9 billion [7] Earnings Reports - Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) reported earnings exceeding estimates by 20.5%, but shares are down due to weaker forecasts [8] - Dollar General also beat earnings estimates by 20% but is experiencing a decline in pre-market trading on lowered guidance [8] - Adobe (ADBE) is expected to report Q1 earnings growth of 15.75% year-over-year and revenue growth of 9.9%, continuing its trend of beating earnings estimates for five consecutive years [9] - Ulta Beauty (ULTA) and Lennar Home (LEN) are anticipated to report negative earnings growth in their respective quarters [9]

U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.4%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month to $37.32, up 3.8% year-over-year. ...

Ghana’s inflation rate fell to a near three-decade low in February https://t.co/AgKQ2varkW ...

The arrest of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor has made for a potentially embarrassing week for the UK. But economic indicators might point otherwise. Get The Readout with @RuthsDavid https://t.co/2NmeHt2kOe ...

The U.S. reported that core PCE rose 3.0% year over year and 0.4% month over month in December 2025, while headline PCE increased 2.9% year over year. Personal income and consumer spending grew 0.3% and 0.4% month over month, respectively. ...

Hungary’s headline inflation rate plunged to the lowest level in almost eight years in January https://t.co/aJYiAk9i7K ...

Core Insights - The dollar index has decreased to a one-week low, down by 0.05%, primarily due to falling T-note yields following weaker-than-expected US economic reports, which has raised expectations for a potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The US Q4 employment cost index increased by 0.7% quarter-over-quarter, which is below the expected 0.8% and marks the smallest rise in 4.5 years [2] - US December retail sales remained unchanged month-over-month, falling short of the anticipated 0.4% increase, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [3] Economic Indicators - The swaps market is pricing in a 22% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 17-18, with expectations of a total interest rate cut of about 50 basis points by 2026 [4] - The euro has slightly decreased by 0.09% following a dovish statement from the European Central Bank, which suggested that lower interest rates could alleviate inflation and growth pressures caused by higher US tariffs [5] - The yen has appreciated by 0.97% against the dollar, reaching a one-week high, driven by positive signals from the Japanese economy, particularly a significant rise in machine tool orders [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the economic indicators and forecasts related to the global economy, with a focus on the United States and other major regions. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US Economic Data Surprises**: Recent US economic data has shown positive surprises, contributing to an increase in the Goldman Sachs MAP Index, which reflects stronger ISM services, a smaller trade deficit, and a lower unemployment rate [2][4][10]. 2. **Financial Conditions Index (FCI)**: The Global ex Russia FCI has decreased by -0.4 basis points, indicating tighter financial conditions [7][30]. The FCI is crucial for understanding the overall financial environment and its impact on GDP growth [111]. 3. **Current Activity Indicator (CAI)**: The December CAI for the US is reported at +1.7%, with a slight increase from the previous month, indicating a stable growth signal [12][52]. The global CAI stands at +2.6%, reflecting positive trends across developed and emerging markets [12][52]. 4. **GDP Forecast Changes**: Goldman Sachs has adjusted its GDP forecasts for 2026, indicating higher growth expectations for the US and other regions, with specific percentage changes noted for various countries [10][100][102]. 5. **Wage and Price Inflation**: Wage trackers indicate a steady increase in wage growth across major economies, which may influence inflation trends moving forward [21][73]. The trimmed core inflation measure is also being monitored closely for its implications on monetary policy [66][111]. 6. **Jobs-Workers Gap**: The analysis of the jobs-workers gap shows significant changes since December 2019, with implications for labor market dynamics in the US and other countries [24][78]. Additional Important Content 1. **Fiscal Impulses**: The report discusses the expected fiscal impulses over the next four quarters, particularly in the US, Euro Area, and UK, highlighting the potential impact of fiscal policy on GDP growth [86][87]. 2. **Output Gaps**: The short-run utilization scores for various countries indicate how much of their potential output is being utilized, with the US showing a score of -2.4% in December [88][90]. 3. **Methodology Notes**: The report includes detailed methodology notes on how various economic indicators are calculated, including the FCI, CAI, and MAP Surprise Index, which are essential for understanding the underlying data [110][111]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and forecasts for various regions.