Let's get back to the broader markets and the outlook for the economy after consumer confidence this month did fall to the lowest level since April. Joining us this morning is Medlife Investment Management chief market strategist Drew Mattis. Been watching a lot of this stuff closely.Drew, good to see you again. >> Good to good to be here. So, Conference Board is is kind of instructive and it it does fit a little bit with the narrative being built at Amazon and GM and Paramount uh where headcount is either ...

All right, Shan. I mean, it's pick your pick your spot, right. We're We could close above 6,800 on the S&P. We could close above 2500 on the Russell, and we are going to close above 47K on the Dow.>> Yeah, it's it's really the so what shutdown story, Scott. We're moving into another week of a government shutdown and yet, you know, we got the the the data release we needed, right. The inflation data release, which continues to be supportive of what the Fed wants to do.They want to make they haven't seen that ...

Joining me right now at the Aspen Economic Strategy Group Forum, Neil Cash Carry is here. He's the president of course of the Minneapolis Fed. And there is so much to talk to you about.I don't even know uh where you want to start. Um but maybe we'd start with what's actually just happening even inside the Fed because there's a new opening and then there's all the talks about the Kevin and what that means. And I'm curious as somebody who's who's on that board what it feels like.Uh it's uncertain. I mean ther ...

Economic Slowdown & Inflation - The economy is slowing, with housing services inflation gently declining, non-housing services inflation coming down, and wage growth decreasing [3][4] - Consumer spending is cooling, further suggesting a slowdown in the real underlying economy [4] - The ultimate effects of tariffs on inflation are uncertain and may not be known for quarters or a year or more [4] - The average effective tariff being paid at the border is around 10%, climbing month after month, but still short of the 16% headline rate [6] - It is uncertain how high core goods inflation will get and whether it will spill over into other categories and be persistent [11] Monetary Policy - It may become appropriate to start adjusting the federal funds rate in the near term due to the slowing economy [5] - Two rate cuts this year still seem reasonable, but the actual number could vary depending on the effect of tariffs on inflation [13][14] - If tariffs have a bigger effect on inflation, the Fed could do one or more rate cuts and then pause, or even raise rates again [14] - The FOMC is aware of the potential need to adjust course (cut and then raise rates) due to the uncertain effects of tariffs [17][18] Data & Credibility - The BLS data is subject to revisions and declining survey response rates, requiring the Fed to look at other data sources [21][22] - There are concerns about the credibility of economic data following the firing of the head of the BLS, but it is difficult to fake economic reality [25][28] - Wage growth is declining, indicating a cooling labor market [22] Tariffs Impact - Companies have not taken up prices in the way they did during the pandemic, possibly due to the complexities of tariffs compared to the pandemic [7][8] - Some companies hoarded inventory to protect themselves and their customers from tariffs [9][16] - The market is discounting that the tariffs, at least as we know them today, stay that way [12]

what we can expect today in the meetings ahead. Joining us, Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolf Research, along with Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James, and Andrew Scizarowski, strategic income portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. I think that is full team coverage.Andrew, we'll begin with you. What is your expectation from the Fed today. And more importantly, what do you want to hear them say.>> No, thanks for having me. I think look the expectations are low for ...

Market Outlook - Verdens Capital advisors haven't set a specific S&P 500 target for a year, focusing on earnings as the primary driver [3] - The market's continued record highs, despite unresolved tariff issues, make the industry cautious about the second half of the year [6] - Concerns exist regarding the long-term economic impact of global debt exceeding 100% of GDP in many developed economies [8] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The industry notes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to delay interest rate cuts due to uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation [9][10] - The potential September rate cut by the Fed is now viewed as a 50-50 chance, contingent on upcoming data and tariff implications [15] - The Fed's decision-making is complicated by the need to balance concerns about slowing growth and a potentially cracking labor market with the unknown impact of tariffs on inflation [12][13][14] Trade and Tariffs - The market initially reacted negatively to the Trump administration's worst-case tariff scenarios, but rebounded when less severe outcomes materialized [5][6] - The postponement of tariffs to August delays the Fed's ability to assess their impact on inflation [9] - The ultimate impact of tariffs on businesses and consumers remains uncertain, requiring a wait-and-see approach [14]