Corporate America has seen historic rounds of layoffs recently in what some experts warn could be the beginning of an AIdriven white collar recession. But jobs in the skilled trades are seen as AI proof. A robot's never going to be able to do what we do. Trade jobs are never going to be technology based. They're going to be human based.At the same time, blue collar industries are facing a shortage of skilled trades people as workers age out of the field. For women especially that creates opportunities for e ...

Core Insights - The analysis indicates that the rapid rise in unauthorized immigrant worker flows (UIWF) from March 2021 to March 2024 had a nearly one-for-one effect on local employment growth, while the subsequent slowdown from March 2024 to March 2025 negatively impacted local employment, particularly in construction and manufacturing [3][25]. Group 1: Unauthorized Immigration and Employment - The increase in unauthorized immigrant workers has been linked to a significant rise in local employment, with estimates suggesting a one-for-one relationship between UIWF and employment growth during both the rapid rise and slowdown periods [3][25]. - The slowdown in unauthorized immigration has had a pronounced negative effect on local employment, especially in the construction and manufacturing sectors, indicating that these industries are particularly sensitive to changes in immigration flows [25][26]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Impacts - During the rapid rise period, industries such as leisure and hospitality, professional services, and other services experienced greater employment growth than would be expected based on their typical share of total employment, suggesting a strong positive impact from UIWF [22][24]. - In contrast, the slowdown period saw significant employment declines in construction, manufacturing, and other services, highlighting that areas with the largest decreases in unauthorized immigration also faced the most substantial slowdowns in employment growth [24][25].

Employment Growth - U.S. job growth accelerated in January, adding approximately 130,000 jobs, surpassing expectations of 75,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate decreasing to 4.3% from 4.4% in December [1] - January marked the strongest month for employment since December 2024, with payrolls increasing by 181,000 in 2025 compared to 2.52 million in 2023 and 1.46 million in 2024 [2] Sector-Specific Trends - The health services sector has been a significant contributor to recent job increases, driven by an aging population [2] - Eating and drinking establishments added a net 27,800 jobs in January, marking the eighth consecutive monthly increase in restaurant employment, with a total of 172,000 jobs added in the last eight months [3][4] Full-Service and Limited-Service Employment - As of January 2026, eating and drinking places were 105,000 jobs (0.9%) above their February 2020 employment peak, with the full-service sector adding a net 55,000 jobs in 2025, though it remains about 3.7% below pre-pandemic levels [5] - Employment in limited-service segments, such as snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars, was 200,000 jobs (25%) above February 2020 levels as of December, while quick-service and fast-casual restaurants were 79,000 jobs (2%) above pre-pandemic levels [6] Regional Disparities - Restaurant employment gains are uneven across states, with 18 states and Washington, D.C. below pre-pandemic levels; West Virginia experienced nearly 6% fewer jobs in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 [7] - States with the highest restaurant employment gains include Idaho (20%), Utah (14%), and Nevada (13%) [8]

FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JULY, THE TWO FED GOVERNORS APPOINTED BY PRESIDENT TRUMP DISAGREED WITH THE MOVE MIRRORING TRUMP'S CALL TO LOWER RATES IN THEIR DECENT. LET'S BRING IN FORMER TREASURY OFFICIAL AND MORNING JOE ECONOMIC ANALYST STEVE RATNER WHO HAS CHARTS ON YESTERDAY'S FED DECISION. FIRST UP, EXPLAIN THE PAUSE, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR JOINING US, STEVE.YEAH, AS YOU SAID MECA, THE FED HAS BEEN REDUCING RATES PRETTY STUDILY SINCE JULY WHEN THEY PEAKED AT ABOUT ALMOST 5 .5 % AND THEY'VE GONE DOWN, DOWN, ...

Labor Market Analysis - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with some indicators suggesting conditions near recession levels [1][3] - Employment growth appears to be close to zero, potentially stabilizing at pre-shutdown levels [5][6] - Job openings and hiring are weak and potentially weakening, as indicated by Indeed numbers [6] - Layoff announcements, as summarized by the Challenger measure, are raising concerns [7][10] Economic Outlook - GDP is considered "doing okay" at 36%, but is distorted by front-loading effects and changes in inventories [8] - The labor market numbers are considered a more reliable measure of the economy's current state than GDP [9] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation numbers have been generally encouraging, despite the pass-through from tariffs [13][14] - The analyst remains comfortable with the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the December meeting [15] Technology Impact - There is a potential for a more significant and quicker impact from AI on the labor market than previously anticipated [11][12]

Net Interest Income & Margin - Net interest income is expected to continue to grow at double digits into the end of this year and next year [2] - Net interest margin guidance is between 3 and 5 basis points [2] Regional Economic Activity & Lending - Central New York is experiencing strong employment growth, even before the Micron investment [4] - Manufacturing is strong from Western New York through Massachusetts up to northeastern Pennsylvania, driving growth [5][6] - The company is seeing increased activity from contractors and subcontractors preparing for site work, beginning in November [5] Credit Quality & Loan Provisions - Credit quality is very good in the company's markets [7] - The company lowered loan provisions due to strong housing and commercial lending markets [6][7] - The company is not seeing signs of stress in credit markets, except for temporary weakness related to Canadian tourism in Vermont and northern New York [8]

Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - Ironside's macroeconomics director of research has been advocating for 100 basis points (1%) of rate cuts this year, anticipating an economic downturn [1] - The market views a 0.25% rate cut as a bonus, while Ironside believes more significant action is needed to address the real economy [2] - The Fed's tightening policy, primarily through rate hikes, has created tight financial conditions, especially for small businesses with floating rate loans [3] Regional Banks & Small Businesses - The spread between the return on equity of regional banks and large banks is near historic wides, approximately 4% [3] - Small banks are struggling to earn their cost of capital, hindering credit creation and lending activities [4] - The Fed's tightening policy has disproportionately impacted the small business sector, reflected in the underperformance of the Russell 2000 [4] Impact on Specific Sectors - A steeper yield curve, facilitated by rate cuts, is crucial for reviving the housing market and lowering financing rates for floating rate borrowers [5] - Labor market data may be overestimating monthly job growth by nearly 80,000 jobs per month, potentially indicating zero employment growth or even a recession in the labor market [6] - While financial conditions remain relatively loose for those financing out the curve, Main Street businesses are facing tough conditions [7]