Workflow
Escape velocity
icon
Search documents
瑞银:2026 年前瞻 - 突破增速-Year Ahead 2026-Escape velocity Chief Investment Office Investment Research
瑞银· 2025-12-23 02:56
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on global equities, expecting a rise of around 15% by the end of 2026, driven by strong performance in sectors such as technology, healthcare, and utilities [125][126]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential of AI and innovation to drive market growth, suggesting that these trends could help economies achieve "escape velocity" from traditional economic constraints [5][27]. - It highlights the importance of capital expenditure (capex) in AI, projecting a cumulative USD 4.7 trillion in global AI capex between 2026 and 2030, with USD 571 billion expected in 2026 [58][70]. - The longevity market is anticipated to grow significantly, with annual revenues projected to reach USD 8 trillion by 2030, driven by advancements in healthcare and technology [90][91]. Summary by Sections Growth - AI-linked innovation is identified as a key driver of market performance, with IT and communication services stocks accounting for 36% of the MSCI AC World index [48][49]. - The report projects that AI can automate a third of tasks, potentially generating around USD 2 trillion in annual revenues from end-users [60][62]. Economic Backdrop - The economic outlook for 2026 is supportive, with expected real GDP growth of close to 2% in the US and over 1% in the Eurozone, driven by fiscal stimulus and improving consumer confidence [102][106]. - In Asia, growth is expected to remain robust at just under 5%, with China focusing on technology innovation and industrial upgrades [109][110]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends allocating up to 30% of equity portfolios to structural growth ideas, particularly in AI, power and resources, and longevity sectors [70][96]. - Commodities are highlighted as attractive investments due to supply constraints and rising demand, with copper prices expected to exceed USD 13,000 per metric ton in 2026 [85][88]. Sector Focus - The US healthcare sector is expected to benefit from improved policy clarity and growing markets, particularly in obesity and oncology [128][129]. - Utilities are favored due to AI-driven power demand and ongoing infrastructure investments, with significant earnings growth anticipated [129][130]. Currency and Diversification - The report suggests favoring the euro and Australian dollar over the US dollar, anticipating that US rate cuts may weigh on the greenback [45][46]. - A diversified investment approach is recommended, including alternatives like hedge funds and private markets to mitigate risks [45][46].