Vi e w p o i n t | 11 Dec 2025 10:21:51 ET │ 11 pages China Economics Seven Policy Signals from Central Economic Work Conference CITI'S TAKE The Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) concluded earlier today in Beijing (Xinhua, Dec 11th). It signaled no paradigm shift in policy thinking. The tone was broadly in line with our realistic prior expectations, with risks tilting towards the downside on the fiscal front. We see seven policy signals: [1] Accommodative macro policies to continue but remain measured ...

Group 1: UBS Funds and First Brands Bankruptcy - UBS funds are facing over $500 million in exposure to the bankrupt auto-parts supplier First Brands Group, with UBS Hedge Fund Solutions holding the largest unsecured claim of $233.7 million [3] - First Brands Group filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection with liabilities exceeding $10 billion, following an unsuccessful attempt to refinance $6 billion in loans [4] - The bankruptcy filing indicated estimated liabilities ranging from $10 billion to $50 billion against assets of $1 billion to $10 billion, raising concerns about broader stress in corporate debt markets [4] Group 2: Japanese Government Bond Yields - The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) rose by 2.0 basis points to 1.695%, nearing 17-year highs amidst political uncertainty and expectations of continued monetary easing under new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi [5][6] - The upward trend in JGB yields reflects a broader market shift as investors respond to changing economic conditions and the Bank of Japan's cautious normalization of monetary policy [6] - The Japanese government faces higher servicing costs on its substantial debt load, which exceeds 250% of GDP, due to rising yields [6] Group 3: Australia's Foreign Exchange Reserves - Australia's foreign exchange reserves increased to A$107.13 billion in September from A$103.9 billion in August, indicating economic stability and capacity for exchange rate management [7][8] - Healthy foreign exchange reserves are crucial for maintaining exchange rate stability, influencing interest rates, and bolstering investor confidence [8] - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain reserves at historically high levels through 2025, with a focus on diversification into non-traditional assets and currencies [9]

Core Points - The United States and South Korea agreed that foreign exchange interventions should be reserved for combating excessive volatility, without targeting exchange rates for competitive purposes [1][3][6] - The agreement aligns with a similar one made between the U.S. and Japan, but does not include a bilateral currency swap line requested by South Korea [2][4] - South Korea emphasized the importance of monitoring currency market stability, a point not included in Japan's agreement [4] Summary by Sections Foreign Exchange Interventions - The joint statement specifies that market intervention should only be used to address excessive volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates [6] - Both countries reaffirmed their commitment under the IMF Articles of Agreement to avoid manipulating exchange rates for competitive advantages [3] Bilateral Relations - The agreement does not include a bilateral currency swap line, which South Korea sought to manage the foreign exchange implications of a $350 billion investment package [2] - South Korea will share its market intervention operations with the U.S. on a monthly basis, with public disclosures occurring quarterly [6] National Pension Service Concerns - The statement did not explicitly mention South Korea's National Pension Service (NPS), which has raised concerns regarding its foreign asset increases and potential currency intervention implications [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - BBVA Argentina's inflation-adjusted net income for Q4 2024 was ARS 64.7 billion, a decrease of 39.6% quarter-over-quarter [9] - The annual net income for 2024 was ARS 357.7 billion, down 0.4% from ARS 359.2 billion in 2023, resulting in an annualized ROE of 12.5% and ROA of 2.5% [13] - The efficiency ratio increased to 61.8% in Q4 2024, up from 58.6% in Q4 2023, due to a decrease in income [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail digital sales reached 91% in Q4 2024, representing 73.5% of total sales by monetary value [8] - Net interest income for 2024 totaled ARS 2.9 trillion, falling 17.3% year-over-year due to lower accrued average rates in loans and public securities [15] - The total loan portfolio increased by 36.6% in nominal terms during Q4 2024, surpassing inflation levels [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - BBVA Argentina's market share of private sector loans improved to 11.31% in Q4 2024 from 9.35% a year ago [26] - Total deposits reached ARS 9.9 trillion, increasing 7.8% quarter-over-quarter, with private non-financial sector deposits in pesos rising 23.5% year-over-year [26][27] - The bank's capital ratio stood at 19.5%, with a capital excess over regulatory requirements of 138.5% [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to sustain and expand its competitive position through increased digital customer acquisition, which reached 88% by the end of December 2024 [8] - BBVA Argentina is focusing on growing its market share, expecting private loan growth of 60% to 65% in real terms for 2025 [35] - The strategy has shifted towards commercial loans, which now represent over 50% of the portfolio, while still maintaining growth in retail segments [81] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a significant improvement in inflation moderation and economic recovery, with expectations of GDP growth around 5.5% in 2025 [5] - The forecast for inflation is around 30% for 2025, with a notable decrease in country risk from 1,900 bps to less than 700 bps [6] - Management expressed confidence in asset quality, with non-performing loans (NPLs) remaining low at 1.13% [67] Other Important Information - The bank's total operating expenses for 2024 were ARS 1.7 trillion, a decrease of 3.9% year-over-year in real terms [17] - The bank issued corporate bonds in both pesos and U.S. dollars, indicating a strategy to enhance funding without needing additional capital until at least 2026 [77] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for growth in loans, deposits, and profitability for 2025 - Management expects private loans to grow between 40% and 45% for the system, with BBVA Argentina targeting 60% to 65% growth in real terms [35] Question: Clarification on inflation forecast - Management confirmed the inflation forecast of 30% for 2025, which is more conservative than market consensus [44] Question: Profitability expectations in terms of ROE or ROA - Management indicated a realistic ROE range of 12% to 13% for 2025, slightly lower than peers [52] Question: Dividend plans for 2025 - Management is awaiting regulatory approval for dividends, expecting a smaller payout compared to the previous year [58] Question: Asset quality and loan loss reserves - Management reported low NPLs at 1.13%, with no significant concerns regarding asset quality despite increased loan growth [67] Question: Funding and deposit growth expectations - Management expressed confidence in liquidity, with deposits growing 25% in real terms and plans for further corporate bond issuance [75]