Imports - subpar yet stable: Despite softening, the headline is still the second- highest reading in the year, reflecting stabilizing yet subpar domestic demand. Ordinary imports (mainly for domestic demand) remained subdued, led by weaker commodities imports, while processing imports improved ( Exhibit 2 ). Outlook: Jul-Aug readings mark clear upside to what we expected in mid-year economic outlook. We still expect exports to moderate amid higher base, payback from front-loading and tariff impact, but YoY ...

#报告 机构前瞻中国8月贸易数据，预计出口增速有所回落。None (@None):None ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a buy rating on FUTLAN/FTLNHDs [2] Core Viewpoints - China's export growth is expected to decelerate from 5.9% in 2024 to 2% in 2025, while import growth may mildly slow down from 1.1% to 0.5%. The USD/RMB rate may appreciate from the current 7.15 to 7.1 by year-end [2][14] - Seazen shows improving access to the CBICL-guaranteed bond market, with lengthened tenors and lower funding costs, and has relieved near-term refinancing pressure [7][8] Summary by Directory Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, NWDEVL 27 - 31s and NWDEVL Perps rose 1.8 - 4.5pts and 1 - 1.5pts respectively on rumors and reports. CNH SWIPROs were largely unchanged. Swire Pacific 1H25 revenue rose 15.7% yoy to HKD45.77bn, while operating profit was down 62.4% yoy to HKD1.86bn. In Chinese properties, LNGFOR 27 - 32s/ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.2pt lower to 0.1pt higher. Longfor begins phased early repayment of offshore syndicated loan. ROADKG failed to obtain bondholder consent. China IG was 0 - 2bps tighter. In Macau gaming, related bonds were 0.1pt lower to 0.1pt higher. Wynn Macau 2Q25 operating revenue was flat yoy, while MGM China 1H25 adjusted EBITDA slipped 1.4% yoy. TW lifers were 1 - 3bps wider. Japanese AT1s and insurance hybrids edged up c0.25pt, SOFTBKs were up 0.1 - 0.7pt. SoftBank Group 1Q26 net sales rose 7% yoy to JPY1.82tn. Korea space was largely unchanged, except HYNMTR 30s tightened 1bp [1] - This morning, the new CNH paper XYDXIV moved 0.5pt higher, while other CNH new issues remained largely unchanged. MTRC Perps were up c0.1pt. China IGs and Thailand BBLTB tightened 1 - 2bps, while LGENSOs widened 1 - 2bps [2] - Yankee AT1s continued to move up slowly. In SEA, VEDLN 28 - 33s were unchanged to 0.2pt higher. KBANK 31s were 2bps tighter and BBLTB unchanged. PETMKs were unchanged to 2bps wider [3] FUTLAN/FTLNHDs - The 8th tranche of CBICL - guaranteed bond. Maintain buy on FUTLAN/FTLNHDs. FTLNHD 4 5/8 10/15/25 was 0.2pt higher this morning [2] - Provide details of FUTLAN/FTLNHDs including Amt o/s, Maturity, Coupon, Offer price, and YTM [6] Seazen - On 4 Aug'25, Seazen issued the 8th tranche of CBILC - guaranteed bond with an issue size of RMB1bn, 5 - year tenor, and a coupon rate of 2.68%. The tenor has lengthened from 3 - year to 5 - year and the funding cost has trended lower. Proceeds will be used for project developments and repaying offshore debts. It has a RMB1bn bond maturing on 13 Sep'25 [7] - In Jun'25, Seazen completed partial tender offers and a concurrent new issue of 3 - year USD300mn bond, relieving near - term refinancing pressure. Its high - quality IPs, secured financing headroom, and growing recurring income offer financial flexibility for refinancing in the coming 2 - 3 years [8] China Economy - China's exports rebounded despite a contraction in exports to the US, with ASEAN and Africa making up for 129% of the US loss since Apr. Exports of motor vehicles and chips were strong, while ships, personal computers, and cell phones softened. Imports rebounded due to robust AI - related demand, and soybean imports from the US rebounded. However, there are headwinds in 2H25 for exports [9] - In July, exports edged up to 7.2% yoy, with exports to the US further slumping to - 21.7%. Shipments to Africa accelerated to 42.4%, and exports to ASEAN remained at 16.6%. Exports to the EU, Australia, Korea, and Canada rebounded. Trade surplus narrowed to US$98bn. Exports of transport equipment and tech products polarized. Imports increased to 4.1% yoy, with strong AI - related demand. Import volume of some energy products, machine tools, etc. dropped, while crops rebounded. Soybean imports from the US rebounded [11][12][13] New Issues - No offshore new issues were priced today [16] - There are no offshore new issues in the pipeline today [17] News and Market Color - Regarding onshore primary issuances, 152 credit bonds were issued yesterday with an amount of RMB148bn. Month - to - date, 501 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB507bn, a 17.6% yoy increase [19] - AVIC plans to take direct control of AVIC International Leasing via an equity restructure. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics will be exempt from 100% US tariffs on semiconductors. Longfor begins phased early repayment of HKD9.3bn offshore syndicated loan. MGM China 1H25 adjusted EBITDA slipped 1.4% yoy to HKD4.9bn. Mongolian Mining expects a consolidated net loss of USD15 - 25mn for 1H25. New World Development dismisses take - private reports. ORIX 1QFY26 revenue rose 8.5% yoy to JPY768.6bn. Rakuten Group will early redeem JPY16.8bn RAKUTN 1.81 11/04/55 on 4 Nov'25. Road King fails to obtain bondholder consent. SoftBank Group 1QFY26 net sales rose 7% yoy to JPY1.8tn. Wynn Macau 2Q25 operating revenue was down 0.2% yoy to USD883.5m [19]

China’s export growth unexpectedly accelerated last month in the fastest gain since April. https://t.co/fxxF9yeU8y ...

Trade Outlook - Trade tensions are not obvious at China's ports [1] - Export growth may slow to 2-3% year-on-year in Q3 [1] - Export growth could further decelerate to approximately 1% in Q4 [1]

Trade & Economic Outlook - China's ports are currently bustling, indicating trade tensions are not immediately visible [1] - Export growth may decelerate to 2-3% year-on-year in Q3 [1] - Further slowdown is expected, with export growth potentially reaching only 1% in Q4 [1]

China’s export growth accelerated for the first time since March, driven by a reduction in US tariffs and robust demand from key overseas markets https://t.co/bbJx30aCNC ...

Summary of Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co Earnings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co - **Industry**: China Autos & Shared Mobility - **Market Cap**: Rmb58,692 million - **Stock Rating**: Equal-weight - **Price Target**: Rmb26.60 - **Current Price (as of March 31, 2025)**: Rmb26.51 - **52-Week Range**: Rmb30.05 - Rmb18.77 Key Points from the Earnings Conference Call 2025 Outlook - The company anticipates continuous export growth and market share gains, with domestic sales potentially boosted by policy stimulus on bus sales [1][3] - Specific targets for 2025 include: - Domestic sales: 36.5k units, representing an 11% year-over-year (YoY) increase - Exports: 16.5k units, representing an 18% YoY increase [1][3] - Total revenue guidance for 2025 is Rmb42.1 billion, indicating a 13% YoY growth, with largely flattened average selling price (ASP) compared to previous years [1][3] ASP Trends - The flattening of ASP is attributed to a decline in domestic ASP due to smaller bus demand, while higher overseas ASP is expected [1][3] 1Q25 Outlook - The company expects approximately 9k units in total sales for 1Q25, primarily driven by domestic sales, with exports facing a high comparable base from 1Q24 [2] - Profit growth in 1Q25 is anticipated to be muted [2] Dividends - The company proposed another round of interim dividends in 2025, which may be viewed positively by the market [2] - Despite a strong cash position, the company may not sustain its previous payout ratio of over 100% [2] Financial Metrics - Projected EPS for 2025: Rmb1.82 - Projected revenue for 2025: Rmb39,757 million - Projected EBITDA for 2025: Rmb5,313 million - Projected P/E ratio for 2025: 14.5 - Projected ROE for 2025: 28.7% [4] Risks - **Upside Risks**: - Better-than-expected export performance - Stronger-than-expected domestic demand recovery - Transition to new energy buses globally [8] - **Downside Risks**: - Macroeconomic uncertainties affecting private sector demand - Increased competition both domestically and internationally - Slower overseas growth due to protectionism [8] Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a discounted cash flow model with a WACC of 11.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2% [6] Additional Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from policy changes aimed at stimulating bus sales domestically, which could enhance its market share [1][3] - The focus on exports and new energy buses aligns with global trends towards sustainability and electrification in the transportation sector [8]