Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China Machinery: Construction Industry Overview - The conference focused on the machinery industry, particularly construction machinery, with insights from industry experts in market intelligence, an industry association, and an OEM [1][2]. Core Insights 1. **Divergence in Sales and Utilization**: There is a notable discrepancy between the increase in excavator sales (+16% year-over-year in July-August) and the decline in machine operating hours observed in 3Q25 [2][3]. 2. **Factors Influencing Sales**: - Increased competition among leading players has led to more inventory buyouts and sales through rental channels, particularly for small-sized machines [3]. - Local dealers are seeking export opportunities due to losses in domestic business, particularly in regions like Africa, Southeast Asia, and CIS [3][4]. 3. **Sales Growth Projection**: Excluding the effects of competition and export-driven sales, the underlying domestic recovery appears mild. However, if current trends persist, domestic sales volume growth for the year could reach +20% year-over-year, surpassing previous estimates of +15% [4]. 4. **Future Demand Trends**: Experts predict low-to-mid-teen growth for domestic excavator sales volume in 2026, with a noted decline in demand for medium-to-large-sized excavators [4][7]. Underlying Demand Trends - There has been a visible deceleration in project funding and machine operating rates in 2Q25, although this deterioration has not worsened in 3Q25. Demand for 20-50t excavators continues to decline, while the 50-70t segment has not yet recovered [4][7]. - The only segment showing positive growth is the ultra-large (70t and above) excavators, driven by demand for higher efficiency [7]. Regional Demand Variations - Traditional infrastructure and property construction demand remains weak, while mining demand has started to decline, particularly in coal mines in Xinjiang. Positive momentum is seen in rural construction, water conservancy projects, and municipal projects in select regions [7]. - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are performing better than local governments, with regions with higher local government bond issuance seeing better machinery demand growth. West China has outperformed East China, but growth may shift towards East and Central China as conditions improve [7][8]. Export Market Insights - Africa and Southeast Asia are highlighted as key growth regions for excavator exports, with strong demand driven by construction and mining projects. The rising presence of Chinese contractors in these markets is contributing to the preference for Chinese machinery [9]. - However, growth in previously high-performing export destinations like the CIS region, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil has moderated this year [9]. - Experts anticipate that growth in Africa and Central Asia may taper off into 2H26, potentially leading to a downcycle lasting 1-2 years, but still expect overall volume growth of over 10% per annum for China's excavator exports in the coming years [9]. Conclusion - The machinery industry is experiencing mixed signals with robust sales figures contrasted by declining operating hours. The competitive landscape and export opportunities are influencing domestic sales, while regional demand varies significantly. Future growth will depend on several factors, including project funding and the performance of different market segments.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Economics** sector, particularly regarding **trade dynamics** and **export/import performance** in the Asia Pacific region. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Export Performance**: Exports to the US have significantly declined by **-33%** year-over-year in August, compared to **-22%** in July, indicating a worsening trend due to US tariffs. However, exports to the rest of the world (RoW) showed resilience with an **11.2%** year-over-year growth in August, attributed to a competitive supply chain and a depreciating trade-weighted RMB against a weaker dollar [2][9]. 2. **Import Trends**: Imports have shown a modest growth of **1.3%** year-over-year, which is lower than the **4.1%** growth in July. This reflects a stabilizing yet subpar domestic demand, particularly in ordinary imports, which remain subdued due to weaker commodity imports [3][9]. 3. **Trade Balance**: The trade balance for August stands at **$102 billion**, with total exports at **$322 billion** and imports at **$219 billion**. Year-to-date, exports have averaged a **6.2%** growth, while imports have shown a **-0.9%** change [6]. 4. **Future Outlook**: The outlook for the second half of the year suggests that while exports may moderate due to a higher base and tariff impacts, year-over-year growth is expected to remain positive, averaging around **2%** [4]. 5. **Sector-Specific Insights**: - Mechanical and electrical products saw a **1.0%** year-over-year growth in imports, while unwrought copper and products increased by **6.4%**. Conversely, steel products and crude petroleum oil imports declined by **-6.7%** and **-15.1%**, respectively [6]. Additional Important Information - The data indicates a clear divergence in trade performance between the US and other regions, highlighting the impact of geopolitical factors on trade dynamics [2][9]. - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with expectations of continued volatility in trade due to external pressures such as tariffs and currency fluctuations [4][9]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future expectations of the China trade landscape.

#报告 机构前瞻中国8月贸易数据，预计出口增速有所回落。None (@None):None ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a buy rating on FUTLAN/FTLNHDs [2] Core Viewpoints - China's export growth is expected to decelerate from 5.9% in 2024 to 2% in 2025, while import growth may mildly slow down from 1.1% to 0.5%. The USD/RMB rate may appreciate from the current 7.15 to 7.1 by year-end [2][14] - Seazen shows improving access to the CBICL-guaranteed bond market, with lengthened tenors and lower funding costs, and has relieved near-term refinancing pressure [7][8] Summary by Directory Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, NWDEVL 27 - 31s and NWDEVL Perps rose 1.8 - 4.5pts and 1 - 1.5pts respectively on rumors and reports. CNH SWIPROs were largely unchanged. Swire Pacific 1H25 revenue rose 15.7% yoy to HKD45.77bn, while operating profit was down 62.4% yoy to HKD1.86bn. In Chinese properties, LNGFOR 27 - 32s/ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.2pt lower to 0.1pt higher. Longfor begins phased early repayment of offshore syndicated loan. ROADKG failed to obtain bondholder consent. China IG was 0 - 2bps tighter. In Macau gaming, related bonds were 0.1pt lower to 0.1pt higher. Wynn Macau 2Q25 operating revenue was flat yoy, while MGM China 1H25 adjusted EBITDA slipped 1.4% yoy. TW lifers were 1 - 3bps wider. Japanese AT1s and insurance hybrids edged up c0.25pt, SOFTBKs were up 0.1 - 0.7pt. SoftBank Group 1Q26 net sales rose 7% yoy to JPY1.82tn. Korea space was largely unchanged, except HYNMTR 30s tightened 1bp [1] - This morning, the new CNH paper XYDXIV moved 0.5pt higher, while other CNH new issues remained largely unchanged. MTRC Perps were up c0.1pt. China IGs and Thailand BBLTB tightened 1 - 2bps, while LGENSOs widened 1 - 2bps [2] - Yankee AT1s continued to move up slowly. In SEA, VEDLN 28 - 33s were unchanged to 0.2pt higher. KBANK 31s were 2bps tighter and BBLTB unchanged. PETMKs were unchanged to 2bps wider [3] FUTLAN/FTLNHDs - The 8th tranche of CBICL - guaranteed bond. Maintain buy on FUTLAN/FTLNHDs. FTLNHD 4 5/8 10/15/25 was 0.2pt higher this morning [2] - Provide details of FUTLAN/FTLNHDs including Amt o/s, Maturity, Coupon, Offer price, and YTM [6] Seazen - On 4 Aug'25, Seazen issued the 8th tranche of CBILC - guaranteed bond with an issue size of RMB1bn, 5 - year tenor, and a coupon rate of 2.68%. The tenor has lengthened from 3 - year to 5 - year and the funding cost has trended lower. Proceeds will be used for project developments and repaying offshore debts. It has a RMB1bn bond maturing on 13 Sep'25 [7] - In Jun'25, Seazen completed partial tender offers and a concurrent new issue of 3 - year USD300mn bond, relieving near - term refinancing pressure. Its high - quality IPs, secured financing headroom, and growing recurring income offer financial flexibility for refinancing in the coming 2 - 3 years [8] China Economy - China's exports rebounded despite a contraction in exports to the US, with ASEAN and Africa making up for 129% of the US loss since Apr. Exports of motor vehicles and chips were strong, while ships, personal computers, and cell phones softened. Imports rebounded due to robust AI - related demand, and soybean imports from the US rebounded. However, there are headwinds in 2H25 for exports [9] - In July, exports edged up to 7.2% yoy, with exports to the US further slumping to - 21.7%. Shipments to Africa accelerated to 42.4%, and exports to ASEAN remained at 16.6%. Exports to the EU, Australia, Korea, and Canada rebounded. Trade surplus narrowed to US$98bn. Exports of transport equipment and tech products polarized. Imports increased to 4.1% yoy, with strong AI - related demand. Import volume of some energy products, machine tools, etc. dropped, while crops rebounded. Soybean imports from the US rebounded [11][12][13] New Issues - No offshore new issues were priced today [16] - There are no offshore new issues in the pipeline today [17] News and Market Color - Regarding onshore primary issuances, 152 credit bonds were issued yesterday with an amount of RMB148bn. Month - to - date, 501 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB507bn, a 17.6% yoy increase [19] - AVIC plans to take direct control of AVIC International Leasing via an equity restructure. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics will be exempt from 100% US tariffs on semiconductors. Longfor begins phased early repayment of HKD9.3bn offshore syndicated loan. MGM China 1H25 adjusted EBITDA slipped 1.4% yoy to HKD4.9bn. Mongolian Mining expects a consolidated net loss of USD15 - 25mn for 1H25. New World Development dismisses take - private reports. ORIX 1QFY26 revenue rose 8.5% yoy to JPY768.6bn. Rakuten Group will early redeem JPY16.8bn RAKUTN 1.81 11/04/55 on 4 Nov'25. Road King fails to obtain bondholder consent. SoftBank Group 1QFY26 net sales rose 7% yoy to JPY1.8tn. Wynn Macau 2Q25 operating revenue was down 0.2% yoy to USD883.5m [19]

China’s export growth unexpectedly accelerated last month in the fastest gain since April. https://t.co/fxxF9yeU8y ...

Trade Outlook - Trade tensions are not obvious at China's ports [1] - Export growth may slow to 2-3% year-on-year in Q3 [1] - Export growth could further decelerate to approximately 1% in Q4 [1]

Trade & Economic Outlook - China's ports are currently bustling, indicating trade tensions are not immediately visible [1] - Export growth may decelerate to 2-3% year-on-year in Q3 [1] - Further slowdown is expected, with export growth potentially reaching only 1% in Q4 [1]

China’s export growth accelerated for the first time since March, driven by a reduction in US tariffs and robust demand from key overseas markets https://t.co/bbJx30aCNC ...

Summary of Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co Earnings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co - **Industry**: China Autos & Shared Mobility - **Market Cap**: Rmb58,692 million - **Stock Rating**: Equal-weight - **Price Target**: Rmb26.60 - **Current Price (as of March 31, 2025)**: Rmb26.51 - **52-Week Range**: Rmb30.05 - Rmb18.77 Key Points from the Earnings Conference Call 2025 Outlook - The company anticipates continuous export growth and market share gains, with domestic sales potentially boosted by policy stimulus on bus sales [1][3] - Specific targets for 2025 include: - Domestic sales: 36.5k units, representing an 11% year-over-year (YoY) increase - Exports: 16.5k units, representing an 18% YoY increase [1][3] - Total revenue guidance for 2025 is Rmb42.1 billion, indicating a 13% YoY growth, with largely flattened average selling price (ASP) compared to previous years [1][3] ASP Trends - The flattening of ASP is attributed to a decline in domestic ASP due to smaller bus demand, while higher overseas ASP is expected [1][3] 1Q25 Outlook - The company expects approximately 9k units in total sales for 1Q25, primarily driven by domestic sales, with exports facing a high comparable base from 1Q24 [2] - Profit growth in 1Q25 is anticipated to be muted [2] Dividends - The company proposed another round of interim dividends in 2025, which may be viewed positively by the market [2] - Despite a strong cash position, the company may not sustain its previous payout ratio of over 100% [2] Financial Metrics - Projected EPS for 2025: Rmb1.82 - Projected revenue for 2025: Rmb39,757 million - Projected EBITDA for 2025: Rmb5,313 million - Projected P/E ratio for 2025: 14.5 - Projected ROE for 2025: 28.7% [4] Risks - **Upside Risks**: - Better-than-expected export performance - Stronger-than-expected domestic demand recovery - Transition to new energy buses globally [8] - **Downside Risks**: - Macroeconomic uncertainties affecting private sector demand - Increased competition both domestically and internationally - Slower overseas growth due to protectionism [8] Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a discounted cash flow model with a WACC of 11.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2% [6] Additional Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from policy changes aimed at stimulating bus sales domestically, which could enhance its market share [1][3] - The focus on exports and new energy buses aligns with global trends towards sustainability and electrification in the transportation sector [8]