Fed Rate Cut Expectation
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贵金属数据日报-20251028
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 06:52
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The initial consensus reached in the China-US-Malaysia economic and trade consultations has boosted market risk appetite, suppressing precious metal prices. However, the lower-than-expected US CPI in October has strengthened the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, and the ongoing US government shutdown has provided support for precious metal prices [5][6]. - In the short term, gold is expected to maintain a volatile trend. For silver, the price difference between London silver and New York silver has been repaired to near par, and there is a risk of short - term adjustment in silver prices. In the long - term, the bullish logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on dips [6]. - In the long - term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long run. Global central bank gold purchases continue, and the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise. Long - term investors are advised to go long on dips [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking of Domestic and Foreign Gold and Silver - On October 27, 2025, compared with October 24, 2025, London gold spot decreased by 0.3% to $4078.42 per ounce, London silver spot remained unchanged at $48.32 per ounce, COMEX gold decreased by 0.4% to $4092.20 per ounce, CONEX silver increased by 0.7% to $48.34 per ounce, AU2512 decreased by 0.4% to 934.14 yuan per gram, AG2512 remained unchanged at 11332 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) decreased by 0.4% to 932.58 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) increased by 0.6% to 11376 yuan per kilogram [4]. - Regarding price differences, from October 24 to 27, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference increased by 20.8% to - 1.56 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference increased by 309.5% to 44 yuan per kilogram, the gold domestic - foreign price difference (TD - London) increased by 4.2% to 3.16 yuan per gram, the silver domestic - foreign price difference (TD - London) decreased by 6.0% to - 945 yuan per kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio decreased by 0.4% to 82.43, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio decreased by 1.1% to 84.66, AU2602 - 2512 increased by 148.9% to 6.62 yuan per gram, and AG2602 - 2512 increased by 476.9% to 75 yuan per kilogram [4]. 2. Position Data - As of October 24, 2025, compared with October 23, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.52% to 1046.93 tons, the silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.32% to 15419.8141 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold increased by 1.85% to 332808 contracts, the non - commercial short position increased by 9.43% to 66059 contracts, the non - commercial net long position increased by 0.13% to 266749 contracts, the non - commercial long position of CONEX silver increased by 0.97% to 72318 contracts, the non - commercial short position decreased by 0.21% to 20042 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position increased by 1.43% to 52276 contracts [4]. 3. Inventory Data - From October 24 to 27, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 87015 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 2.61% to 647643 kilograms. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.21% to 38877087 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.21% to 496946989 ounces [4]. 4. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Other Data - On October 27, 2025, compared with October 24, 2025, the US dollar index decreased by 0.07% to 98.94, the 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 3.48%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.01% to 4.02%, NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.50% to 61.44 dollars per barrel, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate remained unchanged at 7.09, the VIX decreased by 5.38% to 16.37, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.79% to 6791.69 [5]. 5. Market Review - On October 27, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.24% to 934.14 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.47% to 11394 yuan per kilogram [5].
贵金属数据日报-20251009
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 03:40
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The price of precious metals is expected to continue rising in the long - term, and long - term long positions can be held. However, in the short - term, due to large price increases and over - optimistic market sentiment, there may be sharp fluctuations and adjustments, so short - term investors are advised to wait and see [6] - In the medium - to - long - term, factors such as the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, and continued gold purchases by global central banks will likely drive up the price of gold [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - As of October 8, 2025, compared with September 30, 2025, London spot gold rose 4.5% to $4031.06 per ounce, London spot silver rose 3.9% to $48.63 per ounce, COMEX gold rose 4.4% to $4053.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 3.1% to $48.47 per ounce. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures remained unchanged [5] - The price differences and ratios of gold and silver in the domestic and foreign markets also changed. For example, the COMEX gold - to - silver ratio rose 1.2% [5] 2. Position Data - As of October 7, 2025, compared with October 6, 2025, the holdings of gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged, while the holdings of silver ETF - SLV rose 0.55%. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold rose 1.85%, and the non - commercial short positions rose 9.43% [5] 3. Inventory Data - As of October 7, 2025, compared with October 6, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.03% to 40144494 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased 0.11% to 530331634 troy ounces [5] 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - As of October 7, 2025, compared with October 6, 2025, the US dollar index rose 0.49% to 98.59, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.83% to 3.57%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.96% to 4.14% [5] 5. Market Review and Outlook - On September 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 1.485% to 874.4 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 0.77% to 10918 yuan per kilogram. During the National Day holiday, the prices of precious metals in the overseas market continued to rise. It is expected that the prices of Shanghai gold and silver will open significantly higher [5] - The reasons for the sharp rise in precious metal prices during the holiday include increased market risk - aversion sentiment due to political events, expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and China's central bank's gold purchases [6]
美联储降息预期与RWA代币钱包崛起XBIT Wallet成数字安全基石
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 12:00
Group 1: Macro Changes - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicates that the U.S. economy is experiencing "moderate growth but not fast," highlighting the need for a delicate balance between employment and inflation targets [1][3] - Powell expresses concerns over weak job growth, suggesting that overly tight monetary policy could impact the labor market, reinforcing market expectations for potential interest rate cuts to support the economy [1][3] - The rise of Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization is accelerating, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties and the demand for non-traditional asset allocations, with a focus on the need for secure management of emerging digital assets [1][3] Group 2: XBIT Wallet Features - XBIT Wallet is designed as a decentralized web3 wallet that offers user-friendly, robust functionality with bank-level security standards, addressing current investor needs [5] - It supports multi-chain RWA assets, allowing users to manage diverse tokenized assets across various public chains in a unified interface [5] - The wallet integrates decentralized exchange aggregation for optimal trading paths and liquidity, aiming to minimize slippage and ensure quick execution of trades [5] Group 3: Security Fundamentals - Understanding and managing private keys and recovery phrases is essential for using decentralized wallets like XBIT Wallet, as they are critical for asset ownership [7][8] - Private keys are unique encrypted strings that serve as the sole proof of ownership for digital assets, while recovery phrases simplify the backup process [7][8] - Best practices for security include offline backups, multi-factor verification, and regular updates to the wallet application to protect against phishing and malware [8][9] Group 4: Industry Implications - The uncertain economic landscape and the surge in RWA assets make active management and security of digital assets a necessity rather than an option [9] - XBIT Wallet is positioned as a secure and user-centric solution, enabling ordinary investors to participate safely in the digital financial transformation [9] - The understanding of recovery phrases and private key management is crucial for investors to navigate the future digital wealth era centered around RWA token wallets [9]
供需面压力暂时有限 沪铜震荡运行【8月7日SHFE市场收盘评论】
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 12:04
Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a slight upward trend, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and stable supply-demand dynamics, despite some underlying pressures [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data, particularly labor statistics, have shown weakness, leading to a significant increase in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] - The US dollar index is operating weakly, contributing to a favorable environment for copper prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain low, indicating stable supply conditions [1] - Chilean copper miner Codelco has requested permission to partially reopen its flagship El Teniente copper mine, which may impact future production levels [1] Group 3: Market Inventory and Consumption - As of August 7, domestic electrolytic copper inventory stood at 133,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from August 4 [1] - The Shanghai and Guangdong markets continue to see inventory accumulation, while Jiangsu market inventory has decreased [1] - Recent increases in imported copper arrivals in Shanghai have been noted, although downstream consumption remains relatively weak [1] Group 4: Price Outlook - Jinrui Futures indicates that recent disturbances in copper mining and marginally rising rate cut expectations are supporting copper price performance [1] - However, there are concerns about potential downward pressure on prices due to weakening overseas data and slowing domestic demand [1] - Future observations will focus on consumer resilience, as continued weakness below seasonal expectations may limit price support [1]