Market Reactions to Tariffs - The market is adapting to recent tariff developments, with a perception that the trade war may be easing, as evidenced by a quicker acceptance of news related to tariffs [3][5] - There is a historical context where manufacturers previously engaged in inventory accumulation, suggesting a potential repeat of such behavior in response to current tariff situations [2] Economic Environment and Supply Chain - The global economic environment is showing resilience, with supply chains increasingly moving away from the US, indicating a stronger linkage outside the US compared to previous years [5] - The world is perceived to be more buffered against US tariff actions now than it was four to five years ago, suggesting improved adaptability in the global market [6] Gold Market Insights - The price of gold has seen significant fluctuations, with a new target set at $5,500, reflecting ongoing geopolitical volatility and central bank demand for gold ETFs [6][8] - The recent decline in gold prices was attributed to a temporary overshoot beyond fundamental values, but the long-term outlook remains optimistic for gold as a portfolio hedge [7][8] Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - Despite recent economic slowdowns, the expectation remains for only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amidst tariff uncertainties [10][12] - The US GDP is slowing, but this does not suggest an imminent recession, with market expectations for rate cuts being moderated [11][12]

Market Positioning - The market finished above all four pivots and the 50-day moving average, indicating a strong upside bias ahead of Monday's opening [1] - Spot Silver closed at $81.72, positioning the market favorably for potential gains [1] Price Targets - The next target for Spot Silver is $86.32, with a potential breakout leading to a surge towards $92.20 and a major retracement zone between $92.87 and $99.66 [2] Fundamental Drivers - Spot Silver's rally was supported by three main factors: tensions between the United States and Iran, a Supreme Court ruling affecting President Trump's tariff powers, and the announcement of a new 15% global tariff [3] - The Supreme Court ruling and tariff news overshadowed economic data that suggested a reduced likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut [4] Tariff and Legal Implications - The Supreme Court ruling lifted some uncertainty for traders but may lead to further legal challenges regarding tariff refunds, which could take years to resolve [5] Federal Reserve Rate Cut Outlook - Current economic indicators, including weak GDP and persistent inflation, keep the odds of a June rate cut below 50%, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating a 44% chance [6]

Traders Are Hunting for Value, Not Chasing OffersMy charts suggest that traders are no longer chasing silver, or hitting offers. Like gold, they are hunting for value. Having rejected the 50-day moving average as value, traders are now rotating their focus to the 200-day moving average. My conclusion is that silver could be in a prolonged “digestion” period, where it needs to work off the excess caused by the parabolic, “too much, too fast” rally in January.April 10 Is When the Technical Picture Finally Ref ...

Core Viewpoint - The power sector is experiencing growth due to expectations of sustained demand momentum, contributing to a rebound in equity benchmark indices [5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded sharply by nearly 1 percent, with the BSE Sensex rising 650.39 points (0.79 percent) to close at 83,277.15 and the NSE Nifty advancing 211.65 points (0.83 percent) to settle at 25,682.75 [3]. - PowerGrid emerged as the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising 4.45 percent, alongside strong performances from HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, NTPC, and others [4]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts noted that domestic markets edged higher due to renewed buying interest in banking and power stocks, with improved loan growth and stable asset quality boosting confidence in banks [5]. - The power sector's gains are attributed to expectations of sustained demand momentum, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [5]. Group 3: Global Market Influences - A decline in the US 10-year yield, following benign inflation data, has strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which is influencing investor sentiment [7]. - Stability in the rupee and range-bound crude oil prices are providing additional support to domestic equities, particularly ahead of US-Iran talks [7]. Group 4: Institutional Activity - Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth Rs 7,395.41 crore, while domestic institutional investors purchased stocks worth Rs 5,553.96 crore, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [9].

Market Performance - Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded sharply by nearly 1% on February 16, 2026, driven by strong buying in power, banking, and financial stocks [1] - The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 650.39 points, or 0.79%, closing at 83,277.15 [1] - The 50-share NSE Nifty advanced 211.65 points, or 0.83%, settling at 25,682.75 [2] Sector Performance - PowerGrid emerged as the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising 4.45%, with other notable gainers including HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, NTPC, ITC, Asian Paints, Bajaj Finserv, Bharti Airtel, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Reliance Industries, and State Bank of India [2] - The power sector gained on expectations of sustained demand momentum, while improved loan growth and stable asset quality bolstered confidence in banks [4] Global Market Influence - A continued decline in the U.S. 10-year yield, following benign inflation data, strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut later this year, influencing investor sentiment [5] - Stability in the rupee and range-bound crude oil prices ahead of U.S.-Iran talks provided additional support to domestic equities [5] Investor Activity - Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth ₹7,395.41 crore on February 14, 2026, while domestic institutional investors purchased stocks worth ₹5,553.96 crore [7]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing slight upward movement, but overall momentum is weak due to increasing global inventories and seasonal demand slowdown in China [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai copper prices rose by 0.39% amid a narrow trading range [1] - The market sentiment is generally positive, influenced by stronger surrounding metals [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded market expectations, and the unemployment rate continues to decline, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [1] - The U.S. dollar index has stabilized as a result of these employment data [1] Group 3: Inventory Trends - Global visible copper inventories are on the rise, with LME copper stocks increasing to over 190,000 tons, the highest level in nearly nine months [1] - Domestic copper inventories are also accumulating, particularly as the market enters a traditional demand lull with downstream sectors starting to take holidays [1] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Codelco's Teniente mine is expected to maintain low production levels due to a collapse incident, contributing to a slower growth rate in global refined copper supply [1] - Despite the seasonal accumulation of domestic inventories slowing down, the overall supply-demand balance suggests that copper prices will likely remain in a high-level consolidation phase [1]

Economic Indicators - The US nonfarm payrolls for January increased by +130,000, surpassing expectations of +65,000, marking the strongest growth in 13 months [3] - The unemployment rate for January unexpectedly decreased by -0.1 to 4.3%, indicating a stronger labor market than anticipated [3] - Average hourly earnings rose by +3.7% year-over-year, aligning with expectations [3] - The annual benchmark revision to 2025 US payrolls showed a reduction of -862,000 jobs, which was larger than the expected decrease of -825,000 [3] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The dollar index (DXY00) increased by +0.08% after a better-than-expected US payroll report, which led to higher T-note yields and reduced speculation of further Fed interest rate cuts [1] - The probability of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting dropped to 6% from 23% prior to the payroll report [1] - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid emphasized the need to maintain rates at a "somewhat restrictive" level to prevent prolonged high inflation [4] - Swaps markets are pricing in a 6% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18 [5] Mortgage Market - US MBA mortgage applications decreased by -0.3% for the week ending February 6, with the purchase mortgage sub-index falling by -2.4% and the refinancing sub-index rising by +1.2% [2] - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate remained unchanged at 6.21% from the previous week [2]

Core Viewpoint - The stronger-than-expected January jobs report indicates a robust economy, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in the near term [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The January jobs report exceeded expectations, reinforcing the notion that the economy is performing strongly [1] - The positive job market data is interpreted as potentially negative news for precious metals, as it may lead to sustained higher yields [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Market - Despite initial pressure on precious metals due to the prospect of steady interest rates, prices rebounded as investors sought safe-haven assets amid global volatility [1] - The attractiveness of precious metals as a safe haven is highlighted in the context of a fluctuating global landscape [1]

Group 1 - The price level of $5002.31 is critical; a sustained move above this level indicates buyer presence and potential for a breakout towards $5143.89, while a breakdown below suggests a need for stronger support [1] - Long-term bullish fundamentals for gold remain intact, with China continuing to buy gold for the 15th consecutive month, providing underlying support despite geopolitical uncertainties [2] - Improved risk appetite for global equities may limit gains in gold, with traders focusing on the S&P 500 Index and upcoming U.S. economic reports for market direction [3] Group 2 - The upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports are crucial for determining Federal Reserve policy and potential rate cuts, which could significantly impact gold prices [4] - Gold traders anticipate the NFP report to show an addition of 70,000 jobs in January; steady or better numbers could lead to a decline in gold prices, while a significant miss could trigger a rally [4]

Group 1: Stock Performances - Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL) gained 29.31% this week amid rising precious metal stocks due to geopolitical tensions and a weakening US dollar, with expectations of a Fed rate cut [1] - First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) increased by 26.57% this week, following the trend in precious metal stocks [1] - Venture Global, Inc. (NYSE:VG) jumped 21.6% this week after the ICC issued a final arbitration award in favor of the company against Repsol [2] - Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) rose 17.44% this week due to positive results from a five-year follow-up of a Phase 2b melanoma vaccine trial [2] - New Gold Inc. (AMEX:NGD) gained 24.03% this week, supported by a recommendation from Glass Lewis for shareholders to vote in favor of a merger with Coeur Mining Inc. [3] - Coeur Mining, Inc. increased by 23.13% this week, also benefiting from the merger news with New Gold [3] - United Microelectronics Corporation (NYSE:UMC) jumped 13.82% this week, reflecting positive market sentiment [3] - Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) rose 13.21% this week after an analyst initiated coverage with an Outperform rating [4] - Korea Electric Power Corporation (NYSE:KEP) gained 15.29% this week, contributing to the overall positive performance in the sector [4] Group 2: Company Guidance and Production - Iamgold Corporation (NYSE:IAG) produced 765,900 ounces of gold in 2025 and provided guidance for 2026, targeting production between 720,000 to 820,000 ounces [4]