Summary of FOMC Meeting Minutes Industry Overview - The document pertains to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its assessment of the U.S. economy, particularly focusing on inflation and employment dynamics. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Inflation vs. Employment Risks** - A majority of FOMC participants viewed the upside risk to inflation as greater than the downside risk to employment. Some participants considered the risks to be roughly balanced, while a couple of participants highlighted the downside risk to employment as more significant [2][7]. 2. **Payroll Growth Data** - The FOMC meeting occurred before the July employment report, which indicated weaker-than-expected payroll growth. The 3-month average of payroll growth was 150,000 at the time of the meeting, compared to a revised figure of 35,000 now [2]. 3. **Expectations on Inflation** - Participants generally expected inflation to rise in the near term but expressed uncertainty regarding the timing, magnitude, and persistence of tariff effects on prices. There was acknowledgment of potential lags between tariff increases and consumer price hikes due to various factors [3]. 4. **Tariff Impact on Prices** - Some participants noted that foreign exporters were absorbing a modest portion of the increased tariffs, while others anticipated that companies would increasingly pass these costs onto consumers over time. However, a few participants mentioned that companies were attempting to avoid raising prices due to weak final demand [3]. 5. **Economic Conditions** - The economy was considered to be at or near maximum employment, with a low unemployment rate. Some participants indicated that slower economic growth might lead to weaker labor market conditions, but others argued that this was not necessarily indicative of economic slack due to a decline in immigration affecting payroll growth [7]. 6. **Fed's Economic Forecast** - The Fed staff's economic forecast remained similar to the previous meeting, reflecting weaker-than-expected data and a slower pace of immigration. The staff projected a rise in the unemployment rate above the natural rate and a slight downgrade in inflation projections due to lower estimates of tariff passthrough to prices [7]. 7. **Balance Sheet and Monetary Policy** - The FOMC noted that the balance sheet runoff had proceeded smoothly, with reserves remaining abundant. Some participants expressed concerns that the rebuilding of the Treasury General Account could create pressures in money markets, but existing Fed tools could mitigate this [8]. 8. **Monetary Policy Framework Review** - The FOMC was close to finalizing changes to its monetary policy framework, with expectations to shift back to responding to deviations from maximum employment rather than just shortfalls, and to return to flexible inflation targeting as the main strategy [9]. Additional Important Content - The document includes various disclosures and regulatory information related to Goldman Sachs and its analysts, emphasizing the importance of considering this report as one factor in investment decisions [5][11][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the FOMC meeting minutes, highlighting the ongoing concerns regarding inflation, employment, and the broader economic landscape.

Joining me right now at the Aspen Economic Strategy Group Forum, Neil Cash Carry is here. He's the president of course of the Minneapolis Fed. And there is so much to talk to you about.I don't even know uh where you want to start. Um but maybe we'd start with what's actually just happening even inside the Fed because there's a new opening and then there's all the talks about the Kevin and what that means. And I'm curious as somebody who's who's on that board what it feels like.Uh it's uncertain. I mean ther ...

Joining me right now at the Aspen Economic Strategy Group Forum, Neil Cash Carry is here. He's the president of course of the Minneapolis Fed. And there is so much to talk to you about.I don't even know uh where you want to start. Um but maybe we'd start with what's actually just happening even inside the Fed because there's a new opening and then there's all the talks about the Kevin and what that means. And I'm curious as somebody who's who's on that board what it feels like.Uh it's uncertain. I mean ther ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The industry aims to keep longer-term inflation expectations well-anchored [1] - The industry intends to prevent a one-time price level increase from becoming an ongoing inflation problem [1] - The current policy stance is seen as appropriate to guard against inflation risks [1] - The industry is attentive to risks on the employment side of its mandate [2] Economic Assessment - The industry is well-positioned to learn more about the likely course of the economy and the evolving balance of risks [1] - The industry will receive a good amount of data in coming months to inform its assessment of the balance of risks [2] - This data will help determine the appropriate setting of the federal funds [2]

Uh thanks thanks Chel. Um there's a lot of lean in the markets uh and not to mention uh out of the administration for a rate cut now in September. Uh is that uh expectation unrealistic at this point.So as you know today we decided to leave our policy rate where it's been which where I would characterize as modestly restrictive. Um inflation is running a bit above 2% as I mentioned even excluding tariff effects. The labor market's solid, historically low unemployment, financial conditions are accommodative, ...

All right, welcome back. Well, earlier today we got another pretty good read on the economy, but it's kind of another day where the bond market is not really moving. The 10-year yield is at 4.46% and as we noted yesterday, that's the same price that bond yields were at back in November.So, what's it going to take to get borrowing costs on the move again. Either way, Rick Santelli is in Chicago with the bond report. Rick, yeah, you nailed it.Not only was 445 an important area historically, that's where we we ...

Wall Street's always looking for signals. Signals from all over the place, but especially from the Federal Reserve, which is why I keep coming back to this subject. I just explained what happens when the Fed signals that it's willing to strangle the life out of the economy in order to curb inflation.Investors figure that we're headed into a slowdown. The stock market plummets and it tends to stay down. Now, let's talk about the other side of the coin.Because while the Fed can be the ultimate destroyer of va ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent indicators suggest that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, with a stable low unemployment rate and elevated inflation levels [1][2]. Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent, with a commitment to support maximum employment and return inflation to a 2 percent objective [3][8]. - The FOMC will slow the pace of decline in its securities holdings, reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion starting in April, while maintaining a cap of $35 billion on agency debt and mortgage-backed securities [3][8]. - The interest rate paid on reserve balances will remain at 4.4 percent, effective March 20, 2025 [8]. Economic Monitoring - The FOMC will continue to assess incoming data and the evolving economic outlook, being prepared to adjust monetary policy if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals [4][5]. - The assessments will consider a wide range of information, including labor market conditions, inflation pressures, and international developments [5]. Voting and Consensus - The monetary policy action was supported by all voting members except Christopher J. Waller, who preferred to maintain the current pace of decline in securities holdings [6].