Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note reached 4.44% on March 27, 2026, marking the highest level since July 2025, while the 2-year note ended at 3.88% and the 30-year yield at 4.98% [1] Treasury Yields Overview - A long-term view of the 10-year Treasury yield shows significant historical trends, including the impact of the 1973 oil embargo leading to stagflation [3] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term ones, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [3][4] Recession Indicators - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [5][7] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates recession lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed in past recessions [6] Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs, including mortgage rates, which have recently declined despite the Fed's rate-cutting cycle starting in September 2024 [8] - The latest Freddie Mac survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.38%, the highest since September [9]

Core Insights - CD rates are currently higher than historical averages, with the highest rate at 4.1% APY offered by Capital One for an 11-month CD, requiring no minimum deposit [2] Group 1: Current CD Rates - CD rates have been declining since last year due to the Federal Reserve cutting its target rate [2][5] - Several financial institutions, particularly online banks, are offering competitive rates of 4% APY and above [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has cut its target rate three times in late 2024 by a total of one percentage point, with further cuts possible in 2026 [3][4] - The correlation between the federal funds rate and deposit interest rates indicates that as the Fed lowers rates, CD rates typically follow suit [5] Group 3: Opening a CD - The process for opening a CD account includes researching rates, choosing an account that meets financial needs, preparing necessary documents, completing the application, and funding the account [6]

Treasury Yields Overview - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note reached 4.39% and the 2-year note at 3.88% as of March 20, 2026, marking the highest levels since July 2025 [1] - The performance of various Treasury bonds has been tracked since the pre-recession equity market peaks, alongside the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007 [1] Long-Term Yield Trends - A long-term view of the 10-year Treasury yield has been provided, starting from 1965, highlighting the impact of historical events such as the 1973 oil embargo [2] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is identified as a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread typically turning negative before recessions [2] Recession Indicators - Historical data shows that the average lead time to a recession from the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates a lead time to recessions ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed in past recessions [5] Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, which in turn affects mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed's rate-cutting cycle beginning in September 2024 [7] - The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.22% [7] Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - The relationship between the 10-year Treasury yield and the S&P 500 is noted, emphasizing the significant influence of Federal Reserve policy on market behavior [8]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has cut the federal funds rate three times in 2024 and three times in 2025, leading to a decline in deposit interest rates, including money market account (MMA) rates [1] - The national average rate for MMAs is currently 0.56%, while top high-yield accounts offer rates exceeding 4% APY, significantly above the national average [2][7] Group 1: Money Market Account Rates - The national average MMA rate is 0.56%, but high-yield accounts can offer rates over 4% APY, which is more than six times the national average [2] - Online banks typically provide the best MMA rates due to lower overhead costs, allowing them to offer higher deposit rates and lower fees [3] - Credit unions also offer competitive rates, often in the range of 3% to 4% APY, and may have fewer fees compared to traditional banks [4] Group 2: Benefits and Considerations of Money Market Accounts - Money market accounts are suitable for short-term savings goals, offering higher interest rates than regular savings accounts and easier access to funds compared to CDs [4][6] - MMAs are considered low-risk and are FDIC-insured up to $250,000 per depositor, per institution, making them safer than money market funds [5] - Many MMAs require a minimum balance to earn the highest advertised rate, and failure to maintain this balance may result in fees or lower rates [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, marking the second consecutive hold after three rate cuts at the end of 2025 [2] Group 1 - The decision to hold the rate was widely anticipated by market participants [2] - The real insights were expected to come from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of Treasury yields, the implications of an inverted yield curve, and the influence of the Federal Funds Rate on mortgage rates, highlighting potential recession indicators and recent trends in fixed-rate mortgages. Treasury Yields Overview - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.28% as of March 13, 2026, while the 2-year note was at 3.73% and the 30-year yield was at 4.90% [1] - A long-term view of the 10-year yield shows historical trends dating back to 1965, prior to the 1973 oil embargo [1] Inverted Yield Curve - An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, with the 10-2 spread being a reliable recession indicator [1] - The 10-2 spread has been negative from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, with the last negative spread recorded on September 5, 2024 [1] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average of 18.5 weeks [1] Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically leads to higher mortgage rates when the FFR increases [1] - Despite the Fed's rate-cutting cycle beginning in September 2024, mortgage rates have recently declined, with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.11% according to Freddie Mac [1] - The article notes that Fed policy has significantly impacted market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and mortgage rates [1] ETFs Related to Treasuries - Mentioned ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has cut the federal funds rate three times in 2024 and 2025, leading to a decline in deposit interest rates, including money market account (MMA) rates [1] - The national average rate for MMAs is currently 0.56%, while top high-yield accounts offer rates exceeding 4% APY, significantly above the national average [2][7] Group 1: Money Market Account Rates - The national average MMA rate is 0.56%, but some high-yield accounts provide rates over 4% APY, which is more than six times the average [2] - Online banks typically offer the best MMA rates due to lower overhead costs, allowing them to provide higher deposit rates and lower fees [3] - Credit unions also offer competitive rates, often in the range of 3% to 4% APY, but may have membership requirements [4] Group 2: Benefits and Considerations of Money Market Accounts - Money market accounts are suitable for short-term savings goals, offering higher interest rates than regular savings accounts and easier access to funds compared to CDs [4][6] - MMAs are low-risk and FDIC-insured up to $250,000 per depositor, per institution, making them safer than money market funds [5] - Many MMAs require a minimum balance to earn the highest advertised rate, and failure to maintain this balance may result in fees or lower rates [5][6]

Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.15% as of March 6, 2026, while the 2-year note was at 3.56% and the 30-year yield at 4.77% [1] - An inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread being particularly significant [1] - The average lead time to a recession based on the 10-2 spread is approximately 48 weeks from the first negative spread date, or 18.5 weeks from the last positive spread date before a recession [1] Treasury Yields Overview - The long-term view of the 10-year Treasury yield shows significant historical trends, including the impact of the 1973 oil embargo leading to stagflation [1] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates potential recession lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed in past recessions [1] Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs, and typically, an increase in the FFR leads to higher mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed's rate cuts starting in September 2024 [1] - The latest Freddie Mac survey indicates the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.00%, marking its second lowest level since September 2022 [1] Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve policy has been a major factor affecting market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and mortgage rates [1] - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of money market accounts (MMAs) and highlights the importance of earning competitive rates on savings as interest rates decline following recent Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Current MMA Rates - The national average interest rate for money market accounts is 0.56%, but top rates can exceed 4% APY, comparable to high-yield savings accounts [3][7]. - The Federal Reserve maintained a target range for the federal funds rate of 5.25%–5.50% until September 2024, after which it made three rate cuts, bringing the current rate to 3.50%–3.75% [4]. Group 2: Considerations for MMA - Money market accounts are appealing for savers seeking safety, liquidity, and better returns than traditional savings accounts, especially given the current elevated rates [5]. - Factors to consider when deciding on a money market account include liquidity needs, savings goals, and risk tolerance [6]. Group 3: Market Trends - Deposit account rates have been on a steady decline, indicating that now may be the last opportunity for savers to benefit from higher rates [4]. - There are limited-time promotions offering rates as high as 7%, but these are typically found in checking accounts rather than money market accounts [8].

Core Insights - Deposit account rates are declining, but competitive returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) can still be locked in, with the best CDs offering rates above 4% [1] Group 1: Current CD Rates - The best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) currently offer rates around 4% to 4.5% APY, with Marcus by Goldman Sachs offering the highest rate of 4% APY on its 1-year CD [2] - Historical trends show that average one-year CD rates fell to around 1% APY by 2009, with five-year CDs at less than 2% APY following the 2008 financial crisis [2] Group 2: Historical Context - The trend of falling CD rates continued into the 2010s, with average rates on 6-month CDs dropping to about 0.1% APY and 5-year CDs returning an average of 0.8% APY by 2013 [3] - Between 2015 and 2018, the Federal Reserve's gradual rate increases led to a slight improvement in CD rates, but the COVID-19 pandemic caused emergency rate cuts, resulting in new record lows for CD rates [4][5] Group 3: Recent Developments - Following the pandemic, the Federal Reserve hiked rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, leading to higher APYs on savings products, including CDs [5] - As of September 2024, the Federal Reserve began cutting the federal funds rate, resulting in a steady decline of CD rates from their peak, although they remain high by historical standards [6] Group 4: Understanding CD Rates - Traditionally, longer-term CDs offer higher interest rates compared to shorter-term CDs, but currently, the highest average CD rate is for a 12-month term, indicating a flattening or inversion of the yield curve [6][7] Group 5: Choosing the Best CD - When selecting a CD, factors such as goals, type of financial institution, account terms, and inflation should be considered to ensure the best fit for individual needs [8]