Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.06% as of November 21, 2025, with the 2-year note at 3.51% and the 30-year note at 4.71% [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, typically turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Treasury Yield Analysis - The 10-2 spread has shown multiple instances of turning negative before rising again, particularly noted before the 2009 recession [3][5] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates a similar pattern, with a negative spread observed from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024 [5] - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences mortgage rates, with the latest 30-year fixed mortgage rate reported at 6.26%, one of the lowest levels in over a year [7] Market Behavior - Federal Reserve policy has significantly influenced market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and mortgage rates [8] - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Well, the minutes show no surprise that there was a very divided Fed at the last meeting. Some thought that inflation was going to rise too high. Some thought that unemployment rate rise to high and nobody could agree on what to do at the December meeting.In general, they agreed that inflation had moved up. The economy was expanding at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate remained low. But they did not agree on the outlook.Several said that inflation ex tariffs was close to target, but many noted infla ...

This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter. Dive Brief: Seven out of 10 small businesses see inflation as their top worry for the months ahead, with 64% raising prices for goods or services, Bank of America found in a national survey. Price pressures have compelled nearly four out of 10 small businesses (39%) to reevaluate cash flow and spending for the coming year, Bank of America said. Still, 74% of small busines ...

Find out which banks are offering the best MMA rates right now. As interest rates continue to fall following the Fed’s recent rate cuts, it’s more important than ever to ensure you’re earning a competitive rate on your savings. One option you may want to consider is a money market account (MMA). Wondering where the top money market account rates can be found today? Here’s what you need to know. Where to find the best money market account rates today From a historical perspective, money market account in ...

The terminal federal funds rate is the final interest rate that the Federal Reserve sets as its target for the federal funds rate. https://t.co/IloBabP0pP ...

Group 1: BlackRock and Renovo Home Partners - BlackRock Inc. has revised its valuation of the private debt extended to Renovo Home Partners from 100 cents on the dollar to zero following Renovo's bankruptcy filing [7][8] - Renovo, a company formed by private equity firm Audax Group, had previously undergone a recapitalization in April, where lenders converted some loans into equity to help the company recover [8] - Despite the financial struggles, BlackRock and MidCap Financial had marked the Renovo debt at par until the end of September, indicating an expectation of full repayment [9] Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Fed Funds Rate - The relationship between mortgage rates and the Federal Reserve's fed funds rate has been misunderstood, as mortgage rates have been more closely tied to the interest on 10-year Treasury notes [10][12] - Factors influencing longer-term Treasury yields include economic growth expectations, fiscal policies, inflation expectations, and borrower credit risk, which can lead to mortgage rates moving in opposite directions from short-term rates [12] Group 3: AI and Investment Bubbles - The concept of "Inflection Bubbles" is introduced, which are characterized by beneficial long-term effects and fewer harmful side effects compared to "Mean-reversion Bubbles" [13][14] - Investments in AI are driving significant advancements in infrastructure, particularly in chip manufacturing and power generation, which are expected to have long-term utility [20][21] - The current AI bubble is fostering innovation and funding for new technologies, including novel chip designs and lithography machines, which may not have received attention otherwise [22][23][24] Group 4: E-Commerce and AI Integration - An interview discusses the challenges of product visibility in Google search results compared to AI models like ChatGPT, with AI providing more accurate recommendations [25][30] - Amazon is positioned to benefit from the integration of AI in e-commerce, as it consistently ranks highest in consumer trust and delivery speed [31] - Walmart has removed restrictions on multichannel fulfillment, allowing third-party sellers to utilize Amazon's distribution network, which could enhance competition in the e-commerce space [32][33]

Group 1 - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.14% as of November 14, 2025, with the 2-year note at 3.62% and the 30-year note at 4.74% [1] - The 10-2 spread is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, typically turning negative before recessions, with a lead time of 18 to 92 weeks [2] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date gives an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Group 2 - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is influenced by the Federal Funds Rate (FFR), which has recently seen mortgage rates decline despite the Fed holding rates steady, with the latest rate at 6.24% [7] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates recession lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed as in the 10-2 spread [5] - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York encourages firms to utilize the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) as needed, indicating that large-scale usage is acceptable and expected [1][2]. Group 1: SRF Usage and Economic Context - The SRF is designed to be used whenever it is economically sensible, allowing eligible financial firms to convert bonds into cash quickly to address market liquidity needs [2][5]. - Recent trends show rising money market rates and increased usage of the SRF, signaling tightening market liquidity levels [5][6]. - Despite notable usage in late October, it was less than anticipated, with some firms opting to borrow from markets at higher rates instead of utilizing the SRF [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Expectations - The Federal Reserve has been reducing its bond holdings since 2022 to manage market liquidity and maintain control over the federal funds rate [4]. - As Wall Street becomes more familiar with the SRF, its usage is expected to increase, particularly if repo pressures persist or intensify, which would help alleviate upward rate pressure [7].

Find out which banks are offering the best MMA rates right now. As interest rates continue to fall following the Fed’s recent rate cuts, it’s more important than ever to ensure you’re earning a competitive rate on your savings. One option you may want to consider is a money market account (MMA). Wondering where the top money market account rates can be found today? Here’s what you need to know. Where to find the best money market account rates today From a historical perspective, money market account in ...

[CC may contain inaccuracies] Depending on which Fed speech you're listening to at any moment, it's not the jobs that are most important or sticky inflation that's most important. So from your perspective, what's the greater force at the moment. Well, I think it's it is a bit of a toss up.I think Fed officials aren't quite sure what what they want to do. But my inclination is to believe that they'll pass on a December rate cut, that there will be another pause, they'll reconsider at the beginning of next ye ...