CEO and chief strategist Daniel D. Martino Booth. First, your initial thoughts because this is a lot.These are a lot of changes. >> There there are a ton of changes and I I'm starting to feel like we're like it's a schizophrenic Federal Open Market Committee. I mean, they're swinging from pendulum to pendulum.Hawks are being doves. Doves are being I mean, it's it's just >> Yeah. Goulby set this out.Goulsby is always a dove. >> Goulsby I mean, the Chicago Fed is always the most dovish fed person and he's doi ...

Market Overview - The market has shown signs of recovery after a challenging overnight trading session, particularly with technology stocks experiencing significant sell-offs, including Nvidia dropping below $200 [2][3] - Soft Bank also faced a sell-off of over 10% at one point, but there is a current recovery trend [3] Economic Data - The ISM services prices index came in at 70, exceeding street expectations of 68, indicating inflationary pressures [4] - New orders in the ISM services data rose significantly to 56.2%, surpassing the expected 51, suggesting increased economic activity [5] - The ADP report indicated the addition of 42,000 jobs, better than the anticipated 32,000, with a revision of previous job losses to a smaller decline [7][8] Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of resilience, with fewer concerns about employment despite inflationary pressures [10] - The immigration policy is estimated to have removed around 1.5 million jobs from the market, affecting small businesses significantly [12][13] - Small businesses, which account for the majority of hiring in the U.S., are experiencing a decline in hiring activity [14] Earnings Season - Over 80% of companies have beaten earnings expectations, surpassing the five-year average for revenue and adjusted earnings per share [16][17] - The positive earnings reports are primarily driven by technology companies, although the overall earnings growth may not be as pronounced on an equal-weighted basis [18] - Analysts are increasing their guidance, which is contributing to higher equity market valuations [19] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin is currently consolidating around the psychological level of $100,000, with signs of buyer interest emerging [21] - Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Ripple are also showing upward movement, indicating potential risk-on sentiment in the broader market [22]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) usage reached a record high since its inception in 2021, with financial firms borrowing slightly over $10 billion [1][3] - The collateral for this borrowing included $2 billion in Treasury bonds and $8.2 billion in mortgage-backed securities, indicating a significant reliance on the SRF despite its small volume compared to the broader repo market [2][3] - The increase in SRF usage coincides with rising money market rates, suggesting that the Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) may have removed too much liquidity from the financial system [3][4] Summary by Sections SRF Usage - The SRF recorded over $10 billion in loans, marking the highest usage level since its launch [1] - Collateralized borrowing consisted of $2 billion in Treasury bonds and $8.2 billion in mortgage-backed securities [2] Market Conditions - The uptick in money market rates is attributed to a rise in the federal funds rate, which is the Fed's primary tool for economic influence [3] - The current QT has reduced the Fed's balance sheet from a peak of $9 trillion in 2022 to $6.6 trillion [6] Future Expectations - Many analysts anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower the federal funds rate range by a quarter percentage point and may soon conclude the QT process [5] - The potential end of QT could alleviate downward pressure on market liquidity and allow money market rates to decrease [6][7]

Monetary Policy & Central Bank Role - The central bank's most important job is to prevent depressions and hyperinflations [1] - Independence of monetary policy is critical for the central bank's success [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee is an independent group with a monumental task [2] Mandates & Responsibilities - The role will be carried out pursuant to the mandates assigned by Congress [2] - Opinions and decisions will be based on analysis of the macroeconomy and what's best for its long-term stewardship [2] - The intention is to preserve independence and serve the American people to the best of ability [2]

Legal & Governance - The core legal issue revolves around whether there is sufficient "cause" for the president to remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board, as the Federal Reserve Act does not define "cause" [1] - "Cause" generally implies inefficiency, neglect, or malfeasance, and it's premature to determine if the allegations against Lisa Cook meet this standard without an investigation [2] - Lisa Cook's lawyer is expected to file a lawsuit challenging the firing, with the main arguments focusing on whether the president satisfied the "for cause" standard and whether she continues to serve during litigation [3][7] - The Federal Reserve reaffirms its commitment to transparency, stating that removal protections serve as a safeguard, allowing governors to be removed only for cause [8] - The Federal Reserve will abide by any court decision [3] Federal Reserve Board Dynamics - The board of governors can continue to function appropriately even during this litigation, as Lisa Cook is only one member [9][10] - One of the seven governor seats is in flux due to Brianna Keilar's resignation and the unconfirmed nomination of Stephen Moran [10] Political Implications - The potential removal of Lisa Cook is viewed as a play by President Trump to control the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which influences interest rates [11] - The Federal Reserve Board will have the opportunity to confirm or bar the reappointment of regional Reserve Bank presidents who serve on the FOMC in February [11] - Removing Lisa Cook could create a deadlock on the Federal Reserve Board, potentially impacting the reappointment of Reserve Bank presidents [11][12]