Market Overview - Wall Street experienced modest gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.4% near 6,900, close to last October's all-time high of 6,920 [1] - The Nasdaq 100 also increased by 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.3%. However, small caps lagged, with the Russell 2000 down about 0.6% [1] Economic Data - U.S. GDP expanded at a 4.3% annualized pace in Q3, surpassing estimates of 3.3%, marking the fastest growth rate in two years [2] Federal Reserve Expectations - The strong economic data led traders to reduce expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing, with the probability of a 25-basis-point cut in late January now at approximately 15%, down from 20% [3] - Expectations have narrowed to two cuts in 2026, with June and September identified as the most likely months for these cuts [3] Stock Performance - Novo Nordisk A/S shares surged nearly 9% after U.S. regulators approved Wegovy in pill form, the first oral GLP-1 treatment for weight management [4] - In the Russell 1000, top gainers included Sarepta Therapeutics, Freeport-McMoRan, and Marvell Technology, each showing gains of over 3% [7] - The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF rose 0.31% to $631.69, while the iShares Russell 2000 ETF fell 0.49% to $252.34 [8] Commodity Market - Precious metals continued their historic rally, with silver rising over 2% to break above $70 an ounce, achieving year-to-date gains of approximately 140% [4] - Gold advanced 0.7% to $4,475 an ounce, setting a new record high, while platinum surged 5.5%, marking its best year ever with a nearly 150% increase [5] - Palladium increased by 5.6%, reaching levels last seen in October 2022, now up 105% year-to-date [5]

Market Outlook - A healthy bull market should experience profit-taking, suggesting a potential volatile phase is normal and could lead to a healthier market setup [2] - The current market situation is earnings-driven by profitable companies, differentiating it from past bubbles where earnings couldn't meet expectations [5] - Strategists suggest buying on dips and selling on strength, which is considered healthy behavior in a bull market [7] Investment Strategy - The firm recommends a barbell strategy, pairing large-cap growth stocks with small-cap stocks for Q4 [10] - Large-cap growth stocks have strong earnings momentum and should be bought on any weakness [8] - Small-cap stocks have been left behind but are showing an inflection out of an earnings growth recession, making them attractive [9][10] Economic Factors - The market's current performance is disconnected from GDP, focusing more on structural factors that are already priced in [7] - The expectation of Fed easing could be a macro catalyst for small-cap growth [10] - Tax tailwinds are offsetting tariff concerns, supporting earnings growth, especially for small-cap companies [12] - Small-cap companies are showing real earnings growth for the first time in more than eight quarters [13]

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