WASHINGTON, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Underlying U.S. inflation increased more than expected in December, and signs are pointing to a further acceleration in January, which would strengthen ‌expectations that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates before June. The personal ‌consumption expenditures price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, rose 0.4% after an unrevised 0.2% gain ​in November, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Friday. Economists polled by ...

The Dow Jones Index Futures rose and is nearing the all-time high as investors waited for key earnings from its constituent companies, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and the potential gov... ...

Core Insights - Mortgage rates are currently stable, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.09%, the lowest in three years, but have slightly increased by 10 basis points recently [3][11] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, but mortgage rates are influenced by a variety of factors beyond the Fed's decisions [4][11] - The bond market, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield, is the primary driver of 30-year mortgage rates, making them less predictable around Fed meetings [8][10] Mortgage Rate Trends - The average 30-year mortgage rate has seen fluctuations, with a notable increase of almost 1.25 percentage points following a Fed rate cut in late 2024, illustrating the complex relationship between Fed actions and mortgage rates [9][10] - Fannie Mae projects that 30-year mortgage rates will remain relatively stable, with a slight decrease from 6.1% to 6.0% expected through 2026 [13] Homebuyer Guidance - Timing the mortgage market is challenging, as rates can change for reasons unrelated to Fed decisions; buyers are advised to act when financially ready rather than waiting for a specific rate drop [12][15] - Existing homeowners with high mortgage rates (7% or 8%) may consider refinancing, but should evaluate the costs against potential savings to determine if it is worthwhile [14]

Market Performance - France's equity benchmark CAC 40 increased by 63.18 points or 0.77%, reaching 8,306.65, as investors await U.S. non-farm payroll data that may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] - L'Oreal was the top gainer in the index, rising by 4.7%, followed by BNP Paribas with a 3.3% increase, and Hermes International which climbed 3.25% [1] Notable Gainers - Kering advanced nearly 3%, while Stellantis increased by 2.7%. Other companies such as LVMH, Capgemini, STMicroElectronics, Publicis Groupe, and TotalEnergies saw gains between 1.8% and 2% [2] Notable Losers - Euronext and Bouygues experienced declines of 3.3% and 2.5%, respectively. Orange fell nearly 2%, and Vinci, Safran, Societe Generale, and AXA dropped between 1.5% and 1.9% [3] Economic Data - Industrial production in France fell by 0.1% month-on-month in November 2025, following a 0.2% gain in October. Over the last three months, industrial production rose by 1.8%, while year-on-year output increased by 0.3% [4] - Household consumption in France unexpectedly decreased by 0.3% month-on-month in November 2025, contrary to market expectations of a 0.2% rise, reversing an upwardly revised 0.5% growth in October [4]

Market Overview - US stock futures declined on the first trading day of December, with Nasdaq 100 futures down approximately 1% and S&P 500 futures dropping around 0.7% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slid 0.5%, following a five-day gain for Wall Street indexes [1] Major Stocks Performance - All "Magnificent Seven" megacap stocks experienced a pullback, with Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla shares falling over 1% [2] - Bitcoin's price fell sharply below $85,000, continuing a weeks-long decline before recovering slightly [2] Economic Outlook - December is usually a strong month for stocks, but analysts suggest the traditional Santa Claus rally may not occur this year due to heightened uncertainty from various events, including President Trump's tariff initiatives [3] - The focus remains on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with over 85% of bets anticipating a quarter-point reduction at the upcoming meeting [4] Economic Data and Fed Expectations - Economic data releases are expected to influence rate expectations, with a reading on November manufacturing activity scheduled for Monday, followed by updates on services and the jobs market [5] - The delayed September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is anticipated to be a key highlight on Friday [5] Federal Reserve Leadership - Wall Street is preparing for a potential leadership change at the Federal Reserve, as President Trump has indicated he has made a choice to replace current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with economic advisor Kevin Hassett seen as a likely candidate [6]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma regarding whether to cut interest rates in December, as recent job growth data does not provide a clear direction for policy [2][8]. Job Market Analysis - The September jobs report indicated an addition of 119,000 jobs, which was higher than expected, but did not significantly alter the market's expectations for a rate cut [2][3]. - Financial markets are currently pricing in a 40% chance of a rate cut, an increase from 30% the previous day, reflecting growing uncertainty [3]. - The unemployment rate has shown an uptick, potentially justifying a rate cut, while rising wages could compel the Fed to maintain higher rates to combat inflation [8][9]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Fed's dual mandate requires balancing low inflation and high employment, but officials are divided on whether inflation or potential layoffs pose a greater threat to the economy [4][6]. - The recent government shutdown has delayed critical economic data, complicating the Fed's decision-making process ahead of its next meeting [4][9]. - The September jobs report is the last major data point available before the Fed's December meeting, as subsequent reports for October and November have been affected by the shutdown [9].