Mortgage rates fell again this week, with the 30-year fixed rate averaging 6.09%, down from 6.16% last week, according to Bankrate’s latest lender survey. Current mortgage rates Loan type Current 4 weeks ago One year ago 52-week average 52-week low 30-year 6.09% 6.25% 7.00% 6.55% 6.09% 15-year 5.47% 5.53% 6.24% 5.77% 5.47% 30-year jumbo 6.27% 6.41% 7.04% 6.62% 6.27% The 30-year fixed mortgages in this week’s survey had an average total of 0.36 discount and ...

Economic Data Insights - U.S. inflation data showed a less-than-expected increase at 2.4% for January, with core inflation at 2.5% for the same period, suggesting a potential for the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts in the upcoming meeting [3] - Despite the positive inflation data, U.S. futures remained relatively flat, indicating that market sentiment may not be significantly influenced by the inflation figures [3] Market Predictions - Prediction markets, such as Kalshi, indicate that the majority of participants believe the Federal Reserve will pause rate changes, with only 8% predicting a 25 basis points cut [4] - The CME Group's FedWatch tool showed a 93.6% chance of the Fed holding rates steady last Thursday, which slightly decreased to 90.2% by Monday afternoon, reflecting minimal change in market expectations [6] Job Market Revisions - The U.S. labor market experienced its largest downward revision in 20 years, with 1,029,000 jobs counted in CY25 that were later found to be non-existent, following previous downward revisions of 818,000 in CY24 and 306,000 in CY23 [8] - Over the past three years, more than 2.15 million jobs have been revised out of initial reports, raising concerns about the reliability of labor market data and its impact on market sentiment [9]

Group 1: Inflation Data - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year in January, below the 2.5% consensus estimate, marking the lowest inflation reading since May 2025 [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, decreased to 2.5% annually from December's 2.6%, the lowest level since March 2021 [2] - Month-over-month, core CPI increased by 0.3%, meeting expectations [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Rate Cuts - Softer inflation data supports expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets pricing in at least two cuts in 2026 despite a stronger-than-expected jobs report [3] - Polymarket indicates a 69% probability of gold reaching $5,500 or higher by the end of June, reflecting bullish sentiment [4] - The market also shows a 27% probability for two rate cuts this year, with three cuts closely behind at 26% [4] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Central banks are accumulating gold at a record pace, reassessing geopolitical neutrality after the 2022 freeze of approximately $300 billion in Russian reserves [5] - Thinner inventories in London have created conditions for price squeezes, with rallies accelerating as investor flows absorb remaining metal [5] - Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, while cooler inflation readings support continued Federal Reserve easing [5]

Group 1 - The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to show a 2.5% gain year-over-year, returning to levels seen in May 2025 [2][4] - The headline CPI was at 2.7% in December and has been on a downward trend since peaking above 3% in September 2025, with core CPI at 2.6% in December [3][4] - A lower inflation reading could give the Federal Reserve more confidence to lower benchmark borrowing rates without risking inflation resurgence [4][5] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs anticipates a contribution of 0.07 percentage points to core inflation from tariffs, with potential upward pressure on various sectors [7] - The strong jobs report showed nonfarm payroll gains of 130,000 for January and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, which initially caused market concerns about the Fed's rate cuts [8] - A consensus or below reading on inflation could alleviate concerns about the labor market's impact on Fed policy [8]

Market Overview - Bitcoin experienced a decline of 2% to approximately $67,500, while altcoins like Ethereum and Solana fell by 3% and 3.4% respectively [1] - Last week, Bitcoin reached a low of $62,800 before partially recovering to $71,500, marking its lowest price in 14 months [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Department of Labor reported an addition of 130,000 jobs in January, significantly surpassing the expected 70,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate decreasing to 4.3% [2] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a data-dependent approach for future interest rate adjustments, maintaining the current target range of 3.50% to 3.75% [3] Interest Rate Expectations - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March has decreased, with traders now estimating an 8% chance, down from 20% the previous day [4] - Most traders do not anticipate a rate cut in March, although bond markets suggest that expectations remain relatively stable [5] Impact on Risk Assets - The stronger labor market reduces the pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates, which could hinder the recovery of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies [4] - Lower interest rates typically benefit risk assets by encouraging investors to seek higher returns, but cryptocurrencies have struggled despite major stock indexes reaching record highs [5]

📈MARKETS: GOLD AND SILVER ARE SURGING AGAIN AHEAD OF PAYROLLS REPORTGold and Silver Futures rallied on Wednesday as investors assessed the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut.Gold surged 2% to $5,121.80 per ounce, while Silver increased by 6% to $85.46Another bull trap? ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, specifically gold and silver, experienced a decline in futures prices ahead of the January jobs report, breaking their recent winning streaks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold futures closed down 0.9% at $5,003.80 per troy ounce, remaining just above the $5,000 mark [1] - Silver futures fell 2.3% to $80.218 per ounce, significantly lower than its record high reached in January [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release payroll data that was delayed due to a partial government shutdown [1] - A weaker than expected jobs report could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates, following a flat retail sales report for December [1] Group 3: Implications for Precious Metals - An eventual rate cut by the Federal Reserve could provide support for precious metals, potentially reversing the current downward trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a few more interest rate cuts this year, but the extent of these cuts may not align with President Trump's expectations [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts are anticipated to be less aggressive than what President Trump desires [1] - The timing and magnitude of the rate cuts will be influenced by economic indicators and inflation trends [1] - Market reactions may vary based on the Fed's decisions and the overall economic outlook [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations are facing uncertainty as the blackout period begins, with the upcoming FOMC meeting on January 28 being crucial for market recalibration [1] - Recent labor reports indicate a surge in layoffs to 1.2 million in 2025, yet the unemployment rate has decreased, and unemployment claims have been surprisingly low [2] - Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, suggesting that Chairman Powell is unlikely to cut rates this month, impacting potential borrowers [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve operates under a dual mandate that often leads to conflicting goals, where raising rates can lower inflation but increase unemployment, and vice versa [5] - This dynamic was evident last year when Powell faced criticism for not lowering rates sooner to stimulate the economy amid external pressures [6] - Recent comments from Fed officials indicate a moderately restrictive policy stance, with inflation pressures easing and concerns about potential labor market weakening [8]

Core Insights - SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM) stock has appreciated 216.1% in a year, significantly outperforming the industry growth of 46.3% and the Zacks Basic Materials sector and S&P 500 gains of 38.3% and 20.5%, respectively [1][6] - The company has surpassed gold mining peers such as Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) and Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM), which have seen stock increases of 149% and 122.4% respectively this year [3][6] Stock Performance - SSR Mining's stock surged 216% in a year, driven by a sharp rally in gold and silver prices [6] - The company is now the third-largest gold producer in the U.S. following the acquisition of the Cripple Creek & Victor (CC&V) mine [10][11] Gold and Silver Prices - Gold prices have increased by 67.7% year-over-year, currently trading above $4,465 per ounce, influenced by safe-haven demand and geopolitical risks [8] - Silver prices have surged 163.4% year-over-year, trading above $70 per ounce, driven by strong industrial demand [9] Production Growth - SSR Mining reported an 18% year-over-year increase in gold equivalent production for the first nine months of 2025, totaling 326,940 ounces [12] - The company maintained its 2025 gold production guidance at 410,000-480,000 gold equivalent ounces [12] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is $1.85 per share, indicating a year-over-year surge of 560% [17] - The estimate for 2026 is $3.58 per share, suggesting an increase of 93.3% [17] Valuation - SSR Mining is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiple of 6.29, which is a discount to the industry average of 16.87 [19] - The stock is cheaper than Hudbay Minerals and Wheaton Precious Metals, which are trading at 16.31 and 38.18 respectively [20] Long-Term Growth Prospects - SSR Mining invested $17.1 million in its Hod Maden project, focusing on engineering and early-stage site development [23] - The gold production profile at Marigold is expected to increase to over 270,000 ounces annually by 2027, with an 18% CAGR over 2024 [24] Strategic Acquisition - The acquisition of the CC&V Mine is expected to enhance SSR Mining's production profile and key metrics, positioning the company for growth [26]