What on earth do you do with this one this morning. You know, Jonathan, I haven't heard you say it yet, but, you know, this is a great example of where the first reaction is, not necessarily the last reaction. I think we've got to rewrite these headlines, everybody.This is about the private payrolls and private payrolls. Disappointed to the downside. Mike, Mickey just talked about the upside surprise.It's government and that may be surprising. Federal government was down. That's not surprising. That's doege ...

Market Catalyst anchor Brad Smith breaks down the latest market movers for July 2, 2025. President Trump's tax bill faces an uphill battle as it heads to the House after narrowly passing the Senate. Any changes to the bill would send it back to the Senate and make reaching the president's deadline difficult. Wall Street Journal Chief Economics Correspondent Nick Timiraos speaks with Brad about the outlook for Fed rate cuts as the ADP report showed an unexpected decline in private payrolls in June. This cont ...

S&P 500 Hits New High The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to end at 6,173.07 points on Friday, hitting an all-time high. The index reached an intraday high of 6,1787.68, surpassing its previous record of 6,147.43 points. The S&P 500 had a roller-coaster journey this year. The index surged to an all-time high in February on hopes that Trump's business-friendly policies would help the broader market. However, Trump announced sprawling tariffs soon after moving into the White House. Key Takeaways The Wall Street rally has r ...

All eyes are on the Fed, waiting to see when they will cut rates. We take a look at what a lower fed funds rate means for your debt and money. Saving for retirement and building wealth is an important goal, but knowing how to use tax-advantaged accounts like Roth IRAs, 401(k)s, IRAs, and HSAs can make a big difference in reaching your financial goals. Many retirees will have to take required minimum distributions, also known as RMDs, once they reach a certain age. We explain what RMDs are and how to avoid p ...

Core Viewpoint - AGNC Investment has a high dividend yield of approximately 16%, but its stock price has been declining, raising questions about the sustainability of its payout and whether it is a good investment opportunity [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - AGNC is a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) that primarily invests in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which carry virtually no credit risk [1]. - The company has faced significant challenges due to rising mortgage interest rates and widening spreads between MBS yields and Treasury yields [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - AGNC's tangible book value (TBV) has decreased by 45% from $15.75 at the end of 2021 to $8.70 per share by the end of 2023, and further declined to $8.25 at the end of Q1 2025 [4]. - The company has maintained its dividend payout despite a challenging environment, although this has impacted its TBV [10]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes have contributed to higher mortgage rates, which have negatively affected AGNC's performance [2]. - The yield curve has been inverted, which is unfavorable for AGNC's income generation model, but it has recently flipped to a positive slope, potentially benefiting the company [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated potential rate cuts, which could lower AGNC's short-term funding costs and improve MBS valuations, positively impacting TBV [5][6]. - If MBS-to-Treasury yield spreads narrow as banks re-enter the MBS market, AGNC could see a recovery in both its book value and share price, leading to potential total returns of 20% to 25% annually in the coming years [13][14]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - AGNC is characterized as a high-risk, high-reward income investment, with the current market conditions possibly turning in its favor after enduring the impact of higher interest rates [15]. - For income-focused investors, AGNC presents a high yield with strong potential upside, although it requires active management and understanding of associated risks [16].

FICC Research Economics 2 May 2025 US Outlook Holding patterns Tariff crosscurrents continued to complicate the dataflow into April, sending mixed signals about activity amid a strong frontrunning dynamic. This week's combination of solid labor market data and weak GDP is unlikely to draw the Fed from the sidelines. We now assume the next cut will be in July. Another solid month for the labor market... Nonfarm payroll employment posted a solid 177k gain in April (Barclays: 125k; consensus: 138k), confoundin ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indices are currently about 10% and 13% below their respective peaks from 2025, indicating they are out of bear market territory [1] - Some index funds and actively managed ETFs remain in bear markets, defined as being 20% or more below their highs [1] Small-Cap Stocks - Small-cap stocks are trading at their lowest price-to-book valuations relative to large-cap stocks in over 25 years, with the gap widening since the start of 2025 [2] - The average stock in the Russell 2000 small-cap index has a price-to-book multiple of 1.8, compared to 4.6 for the typical S&P 500 stock [3] Investment Vehicles - The Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF (VTWO) is highlighted as a preferred investment option due to its low expense ratio of 0.07% and its diversified holdings across 2,000 small-cap stocks [4] - The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) is currently 25% below its all-time high, affected by the rising-rate environment that has placed REITs in a technical bear market [5][6] Real Estate Sector - Elevated interest rates negatively impact REITs by making risk-free returns more attractive, increasing the cost of capital, and leading to declines in commercial property values [6] - There is potential for a turnaround in the real estate sector, with expectations of four 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cuts by year-end, alongside a 4.2% yield from the VNQ ETF [7] Technology Sector - The Ark Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) is an actively managed ETF that focuses on AI investment opportunities, differing from traditional AI index funds by not being top-heavy with big tech stocks [8][9] - The ETF is currently about 18% below its 2025 peak and 30% below its all-time high, presenting a potential investment opportunity for those interested in AI [10]