Market Sentiment and Strategy - The market sentiment is mixed, with some optimism, but hedge funds and big money institutions have largely missed the rally, suggesting potential for further gains [2] - A slight market pullback in the second half of July would be normal [2][3] - Carson Group maintains an overweight position in equities, expecting any inflation effects from tariffs to be manageable [4] - The firm has been overweight equities since the beginning of 2023 and did not cut targets during the summer rally [5] Portfolio Allocation - Carson Group has diversified its portfolio by shifting from being very overweight in the US to increasing exposure in developed international markets, particularly Europe [5] - The firm is heavily invested in large-cap stocks, anticipating they will outperform small-caps in the second half of the year [5] - Europe is a key focus, driven by Germany's increased spending following fiscal policy changes in March [6] Investment Themes - The firm believes that fiscal deficits historically lead to higher corporate profits and a better stock market, a trend observed in both Europe and the US [7] - The AI theme is considered alive and well, justifying overweighting large-cap stocks with significant tech exposure [8][9][10] - Carson Group favors financials, technology, and industrials, along with momentum ETFs, for the second half of the year [10][11]

Government Debt Market - Growing concern over widening fiscal deficits dented demand for long-term debt [1] - Yields for long-term debt from Japan and Germany to the UK and France rose [1]

Bond investors worried about rising fiscal deficits are turning to an unusual haven: emerging markets https://t.co/JFuVfREv9x ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed concerns about the economy facing considerable turbulence due to trade wars, persistent inflation, and fiscal deficits, placing the odds of a recession at a 50-50 chance [1][2] - Dimon noted that analysts are likely to reduce their earnings forecasts for the S&P 500, projecting zero growth down from an earlier estimate of about 10% [5] Group 2: JPMorgan's Financial Performance - JPMorgan reported strong first-quarter earnings, beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue, and slightly raised its guidance for net interest income [3] - The bank's credit performance was solid, with stable net charge-offs and lower nonperforming assets compared to the previous quarter, while building credit reserves by about $1 billion [3][6] Group 3: Capital Reserves and Ratios - JPMorgan ended the first quarter with a common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio of 15.4%, which is 300 basis points higher than at the start of the pandemic, indicating significant additional capital [7] Group 4: Trade Concerns - Dimon's primary concern revolves around the current state of tariffs and the potential for a trade war, with U.S. tariffs on China at 145% and China's retaliatory tariffs at 125% [8] - The CEO emphasized the importance of safety and freedom for democracy over short-term economic performance, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the China issue [9] Group 5: Global Trade Implications - Dimon acknowledged that JPMorgan's status as a global player may affect how clients and countries perceive American banks, but he remains hopeful for beneficial trade deals from the Trump administration [10] - The ongoing trade negotiations and potential tariffs will significantly impact the economy and the perception of the U.S. as a reliable trade partner [13]