DoubleLine is warning of a “brewing collision” in some developed economies as governments from France to the UK and Japan struggle to balance social demands against ballooning fiscal deficits. https://t.co/Ry8ZrHwrNH ...

Market Trends & Drivers - Precious metals have surged this year, with gold rising about 55% and silver surging about 75% [1] - The rally in precious metals is driven by concerns about the future of the dollar, geopolitical instability, stretched stock market valuations, and expectations for rate cuts by the Fed [2][3] - Silver reached a new all-time high last week and surpassed a decades-old record last month [4] - Silver was trading at a premium in London over New York prices due to an unprecedented drop in inventories [4] - India and China are the largest consumers of silver for industrial use and jewelry [7] Silver's Industrial Applications - Silver has significant industrial uses in electronics, solar panels, and medical devices [5] - Silver is an excellent conductor of electricity and is used in circuit boards, switches, electric vehicles, and batteries [5] - Rising demand and stagnant supply have amplified silver's price rise [6] ETF Performance & Characteristics - iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is the largest silver ETF with 25 billion in assets under management and a 50 basis points expense ratio [8] - abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR) is a cheaper physically backed silver ETF with 37 billion in assets and a 30 basis points expense ratio [9] - Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) tracks companies involved in silver mining with 37 billion in assets and a 65 basis points expense ratio [10] - iShares MSCI Global Silver and Metals Miners ETF (SLVP) holds companies involved in silver exploration or metals mining with 585 million in assets and a 39 basis points expense ratio [10] - iShares MSCI Global Silver and Metals Miners ETF (SLVP) is up about 140% year to date, while Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) is up about 115% [12]

Core Viewpoint - The "debasement trade" has emerged as a significant investment theme this year, driven by various factors including trade disputes, fiscal deficits, rate policy, and geopolitical tensions, leading to a negative market outlook for certain assets [1] Group 1 - The market's perception of trade disputes has contributed to a negative sentiment, impacting investment strategies [1] - Fiscal deficits are influencing investor confidence, further exacerbating the negative outlook [1] - Rate policy adjustments are being closely monitored as they play a crucial role in shaping market expectations [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions are adding to the complexity of the investment landscape, prompting a reevaluation of risk [1] - The combination of these factors has solidified the "debasement trade" as a focal point for investors seeking to navigate current market conditions [1]

Group 1 - Gold experienced a significant decline of 5.7% on Tuesday, marking its worst day since 2013, but stabilized on Wednesday with a slight increase of 0.2% [1][2] - Despite the recent drop, gold prices are up nearly 60% in 2025, indicating a strong performance for the year, potentially the best since 1979 [2] - Central banks are expected to continue diversifying away from the US dollar, and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts may enhance gold's attractiveness [2][3] Group 2 - Kevin Khang from Vanguard noted that gold's future is influenced by two contrasting economic outlooks: optimism from AI innovations and downside risks from inflation and fiscal deficits [3] - Newmont, a major gold mining company, is set to report its latest earnings, with analysts cautioning that expectations for a significant quarter may be overly optimistic due to the recent price range of gold [3] - Newmont's shares rose 0.8% on Wednesday after a previous drop of 9%, reflecting the volatility in the gold market [3]

Market Sentiment and Strategy - The market sentiment is mixed, with some optimism, but hedge funds and big money institutions have largely missed the rally, suggesting potential for further gains [2] - A slight market pullback in the second half of July would be normal [2][3] - Carson Group maintains an overweight position in equities, expecting any inflation effects from tariffs to be manageable [4] - The firm has been overweight equities since the beginning of 2023 and did not cut targets during the summer rally [5] Portfolio Allocation - Carson Group has diversified its portfolio by shifting from being very overweight in the US to increasing exposure in developed international markets, particularly Europe [5] - The firm is heavily invested in large-cap stocks, anticipating they will outperform small-caps in the second half of the year [5] - Europe is a key focus, driven by Germany's increased spending following fiscal policy changes in March [6] Investment Themes - The firm believes that fiscal deficits historically lead to higher corporate profits and a better stock market, a trend observed in both Europe and the US [7] - The AI theme is considered alive and well, justifying overweighting large-cap stocks with significant tech exposure [8][9][10] - Carson Group favors financials, technology, and industrials, along with momentum ETFs, for the second half of the year [10][11]

Government Debt Market - Growing concern over widening fiscal deficits dented demand for long-term debt [1] - Yields for long-term debt from Japan and Germany to the UK and France rose [1]

Market Trends - Bond investors are seeking refuge in emerging markets due to concerns about rising fiscal deficits [1]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed concerns about the economy facing considerable turbulence due to trade wars, persistent inflation, and fiscal deficits, placing the odds of a recession at a 50-50 chance [1][2] - Dimon noted that analysts are likely to reduce their earnings forecasts for the S&P 500, projecting zero growth down from an earlier estimate of about 10% [5] Group 2: JPMorgan's Financial Performance - JPMorgan reported strong first-quarter earnings, beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue, and slightly raised its guidance for net interest income [3] - The bank's credit performance was solid, with stable net charge-offs and lower nonperforming assets compared to the previous quarter, while building credit reserves by about $1 billion [3][6] Group 3: Capital Reserves and Ratios - JPMorgan ended the first quarter with a common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio of 15.4%, which is 300 basis points higher than at the start of the pandemic, indicating significant additional capital [7] Group 4: Trade Concerns - Dimon's primary concern revolves around the current state of tariffs and the potential for a trade war, with U.S. tariffs on China at 145% and China's retaliatory tariffs at 125% [8] - The CEO emphasized the importance of safety and freedom for democracy over short-term economic performance, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the China issue [9] Group 5: Global Trade Implications - Dimon acknowledged that JPMorgan's status as a global player may affect how clients and countries perceive American banks, but he remains hopeful for beneficial trade deals from the Trump administration [10] - The ongoing trade negotiations and potential tariffs will significantly impact the economy and the perception of the U.S. as a reliable trade partner [13]