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Ternium(TX) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-29 13:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, Ternium reported an increase in EBITDA driven by a decreasing cost per ton, with cash generation exceeding half a billion dollars during the quarter [5][13] - The net result for Q3 2025 was a loss of $270 million, primarily due to a $405 million non-cash loss related to the write-down of deferred tax assets at Usiminas [13][14] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline slightly in Q4 2025 due to seasonal slowdowns, but adjusted EBITDA margin should remain consistent with the previous quarter [13][40] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Steel segment shipments increased, particularly in Mexico and Brazil, although lower volumes were noted in other markets [16][17] - The mining segment experienced a decline in net sales due to lower iron ore shipments and increased costs per ton in one of the Mexican operations [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Mexico, steel demand has been significantly impacted by U.S. trade policies, with apparent consumption expected to decrease by 10% in 2025 [8][46] - Brazil's steel environment remains healthy with a projected 5% growth in apparent steel demand in 2025, despite challenges from unfairly traded imports [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ternium is focused on strengthening its market position through ongoing optimization and cost reductions, particularly in response to the evolving global trade environment [11][12] - The company supports policies that promote regional integration and fair competition within the USMCA framework [6][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the uncertainty in the business environment due to ongoing changes in U.S. tariff frameworks and emphasized the importance of the USMCA [5][6] - There is optimism regarding potential structural reforms in Argentina that could enhance competitiveness and growth opportunities in the steel industry [10][46] Other Important Information - Ternium's board declared an interim dividend of $0.90 per ADS, maintaining the same payment level as the previous year [5][20] - The company received the Steel Award for Excellence in Sustainability for its renewable energy initiative in Argentina [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What strategic opportunities arise from the recent elections in Argentina? - Management indicated that the elections may lead to structural reforms that could enhance competitiveness in the industry, but current ownership structure simplification is not a priority [22][23] Question: What is Ternium's plan if the U.S. maintains melt and pour conditions for steel products? - The company plans to continue with its investment strategy, focusing on increasing production capacity to meet regional demands [27][28] Question: What is the cash cost outlook for Q4? - Management expects further improvements in cash costs across operations, with a slight decrease in prices anticipated in Mexico and Argentina [35][40] Question: What is the outlook for demand in Mexico for 2026? - Demand is expected to recover by 4% in 2026, driven by infrastructure growth and stabilization in trade relations with the U.S. [46][48] Question: What is the status of the Pesquería project? - The new galvanized line is set to start production in December, with the overall project on track and within budget [68] Question: What are the expectations for EBITDA per ton in 2026? - Management aims for an EBITDA margin of around 10% entering 2026, with ongoing efforts to improve margins despite uncertainties in trade negotiations [74][79]
Ternium(TX) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-29 13:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, Ternium reported an increase in EBITDA driven by a decreasing cost per tonne, with cash generation exceeding half a billion dollars during the quarter [5][13] - The net result for Q3 2025 was a loss of $270 million, primarily due to a $405 million non-cash loss related to the write-down of deferred tax assets at Usiminas [13][14] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline slightly in Q4 2025 due to seasonal slowdowns, but adjusted EBITDA margin should remain consistent with the previous quarter [13][40] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Steel segment shipments increased, particularly in Mexico and Brazil, although lower volumes were noted in other markets [16][17] - The mining segment experienced a decline in net sales due to lower iron ore shipments and increased costs per tonne in one of the Mexican operations [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Mexico, steel demand has been impacted by uncertainty from U.S. trade policies, with a projected 10% decrease in apparent consumption for 2025 [8][48] - Brazil's steel environment remains healthy with an expected 5% growth in apparent steel demand in 2025, despite facing challenges from unfairly traded imports [9][10] - Argentina's steel activity leveled off due to pre-election uncertainty, but there is optimism for growth following the elections [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ternium is focused on strengthening its market position through ongoing optimization and cost reductions, particularly in response to trade volatility and competition from Asian countries [11][12] - The company supports policies aimed at increasing local value addition and reducing reliance on imports, particularly in Mexico [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the importance of the USMCA framework and ongoing trade negotiations to ensure fair competition and long-term growth in the region [6][7] - The Mexican government is prioritizing efforts to fortify local value chains and promote self-sufficiency against external pressures [8][9] - Management expressed optimism about potential structural reforms in Argentina that could enhance competitiveness in the steel industry [10][11] Other Important Information - Ternium received the Steel Award for Excellence in Sustainability for its renewable energy initiative in Argentina, which significantly reduces its environmental footprint [11] - The board declared an interim dividend of $0.90 per ADS, maintaining the same level as the previous year [5][20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Strategic opportunities post-Argentina elections - Management indicated that the elections would not change existing projects and expressed optimism for structural reforms that could enhance competitiveness in Argentina [22][23] Question: Conditions for restructuring ownership - Management noted that restructuring depends on external factors, particularly the share held by ANSES, and emphasized the need for government reforms before considering such initiatives [24][25] Question: Plans if U.S. maintains melt and pour conditions - Management confirmed that they would continue with existing investment plans, anticipating increased production capacity in response to market conditions [27][29] Question: Cash cost outlook for Q4 - Management expects ongoing efficiencies to improve cash costs across operations in Mexico, Argentina, and Usiminas, despite slight price decreases [37][41] Question: Demand outlook for Mexico in 2026 - Management projected a recovery in demand for 2026, driven by infrastructure growth and stabilization in U.S.-Mexico trade relations [48][50] Question: Update on Compactos project - Management stated that decisions regarding the Compactos project would be made in mid-2026, with ongoing analysis of various alternatives [78][80] Question: Expectations for EBITDA per ton in 2026 - Management indicated that while they aim for an EBITDA margin of around 10% entering 2026, achieving this will depend on various market conditions and trade negotiations [76][82]
Ternium(TX) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-29 13:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, Ternium reported an increase in EBITDA driven by a decreasing cost per tonne, with cash generation exceeding half a billion dollars during the quarter [4][11] - The net result for Q3 2025 was a loss of $270 million, primarily due to a $405 million non-cash loss related to the write-down of deferred tax assets at Usiminas [11][12] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline slightly in Q4 2025 due to seasonal slowdown, but the adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to remain consistent with the previous quarter [11][38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Steel segment shipments increased, particularly in Mexico and Brazil, although lower volumes were noted in other markets [13][14] - The mining segment experienced a decline in net sales due to lower iron ore shipments and increased costs in one of the Mexican operations [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Mexico, apparent steel consumption is projected to decrease by 10% in 2025, with expectations of a 4% recovery in 2026 driven by infrastructure growth [48] - Brazil's steel environment remains healthy with a 5% growth expectation in apparent steel demand for 2025, despite challenges from unfairly traded imports [8][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ternium is focused on strengthening its market position through ongoing optimization and cost reductions, particularly in response to the evolving global trade environment [9][10] - The company supports policies that promote regional integration and fair competition within the USMCA framework [5][6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the uncertainty in the business environment due to ongoing changes in the U.S. tariff framework, but expressed optimism about structural reforms in Argentina following the recent elections [5][22] - The company anticipates a slight decline in prices in Mexico and Argentina for Q4 2025, but expects stability in North American prices [38][42] Other Important Information - Ternium's board declared an interim dividend of $0.90 per ADS, maintaining the same level as last year [4][17] - The company received the Steel Award for Excellence in Sustainability for its renewable energy initiative in Argentina [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Strategic opportunities post-Argentina elections - Management indicated that the elections would lead to structural reforms that could enhance competitiveness in Argentina, but no immediate changes to ownership structure are planned [21][23] Question: Ternium's plan if U.S. maintains melt and pour conditions - The company plans to continue with its investment strategy, anticipating that melt and pour conditions will remain relevant, especially in the automotive sector [27][29] Question: Cash cost outlook for Q4 - Management expects ongoing efficiencies in operations, with a slight decrease in cash costs anticipated in Mexico and Argentina [35][42] Question: Demand outlook for Mexico in 2026 - A recovery in demand is expected in 2026, driven by infrastructure growth and stabilization in trade between the U.S. and Mexico [48][50] Question: Update on the Pesquería project - The new galvanized line is set to start production in December, with the overall project on budget and timeline [72][74] Question: Expectations for EBITDA per ton in 2026 - Management aims for an EBITDA margin of around 10% entering 2026, with ongoing efforts to improve margins despite uncertainties in trade negotiations [84][85]