I follow countless companies and select for you the most attractive investments . I do all the work of picking the most attractive stocks.And I'm going to be up front and tell you the bad news that is facing this investment. And it's nothing to doMichael Wiggins De Oliveira is an inflection investor. This means buying into cheap companies at the moment when their narrative is changing and the business is on a path toward becoming significantly more profitable over the next year.With a focus on tech and “the ...

Nvidia, Inc. (NVDA) stock looks at least 22% too cheap here, based on its strong free cash flow (FCF) margins (i.e., using a 39% FCF margin) and using a 2.0% FCF yield valuation metric. Put premiums are high, making shorting out-of-the-money puts attractive. NVDA closed at $188.15 on Friday, Nov. 7, off its recent peak of $206.88 on Nov. 3. But it could be worth as much as $230 per share, or over 22% higher, based on its strong FCF. This article will show why. More News from Barchart NVDA stock - last 3 ...

Business Overview - Chord Energy is a premier Williston Basin operator focused on enhancing free cash flow generation[1,9] - The company has a large acreage position in the Williston Basin, with over 1.3 million net acres and approximately 278 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoepd) production, with oil accounting for approximately 56% of production[18] - Chord Energy has a diversified commodity mix with 56% oil, 26% gas, and 18% NGL[15] Financial Performance and Capital Allocation - Chord Energy has returned over $5 billion to shareholders since 2021[20,25] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with approximately 0.6x leverage[20,26,71] - Chord Energy's capital expenditure for 2025 is projected to be approximately $1.365 billion[131] - The company's free cash flow for 2025 is estimated to be approximately $840 million[131] Operational Efficiency and Improvements - Chord Energy is focused on continuous improvement, driving a projected 20% free cash flow growth in FY25 from controllable items[35] - The company is implementing a 4-mile lateral program, which is expected to improve returns with 90%-100% EUR increase and $8-$12 per barrel lower breakeven compared to 2-mile analogs[52] - Chord Energy is targeting over 80% long-lateral inventory across its acreage[33,116] Marketing and Infrastructure - The company anticipates $30-$50 million in annual free cash flow savings from marketing optimization starting in 2026[43,49] - Chord Energy is involved in gas takeaway projects, including LNG Canada and TC Energy Bison Xpress, which are expected to improve pricing[45] Strategic Acquisitions and Divestitures - Chord Energy closed the XTO asset acquisition in October 2025 for $550 million, adding 48,000 net acres in the Williston core[25,75,76] - Since the Enerplus merger close in May 2024, Chord Energy has reduced its fully diluted shares outstanding by approximately 11%[62,64]

Core Insights - Dividends are a significant factor for investors when purchasing stocks, providing steady cash flow and compounding returns, but high dividend yields may indicate underlying risks [1] - Sustainable dividends require strong financial fundamentals, with no single metric guaranteeing stability [1] Free Cash Flow (FCF) - FCF represents the cash available after a company has maintained its operations and capital assets, crucial for paying dividends and settling obligations [3] - A company with strong FCF can comfortably fund dividends, reinvest in growth, and reduce debts without financial strain; for example, Sheng Siong generated positive FCF of S$78.9 million, or S$0.052 per share, for the first half of 2025, declaring an unchanged interim dividend of S$0.032 [4][5] Balance Sheet Strength - A strong balance sheet is essential for sustainable dividends, with the gearing ratio indicating a company's debt relative to its assets; a lower ratio suggests better resilience [6] - CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) has a gearing ratio of approximately 38%, below the Monetary Authority of Singapore's ceiling of 50%, and announced a dividend of S$0.0562 per share for the first half of 2025, an increase from the previous year [7][8] Payout Ratio - The payout ratio measures the percentage of earnings paid out as dividends, with a range of 35% to 65% generally indicating sustainability; excessively high ratios, especially over 100%, signal potential risks [10][11] - Companies like DBS Group Holdings Ltd, Singapore Telecommunications Limited, and Keppel Ltd have payout ratios of 56.3%, 71.1%, and 66.5%, respectively, allowing them to reward shareholders while retaining capital for growth [11][12] Conclusion - Investing in companies with sustainable dividends can provide passive income, but it is essential to assess the underlying financial health through FCF, balance sheet strength, and payout ratios [13][15]

Core Insights - Tesla, Inc. generated $3.9 billion in free cash flow (FCF) in Q3, which is over 14% of its sales, indicating strong financial performance [1][6] - The stock could be undervalued by over 15%, with a potential price target of $502 per share if FCF remains robust in the upcoming year [1][3] - Tesla's revenue increased by 11.6% year-over-year to over $28 billion, driven by a surge in orders before the expiration of a significant tax subsidy [4][6] Financial Performance - In Q3, Tesla's FCF was $3.99 billion, representing 14.2% of its $28.1 billion in sales [6] - The trailing 12-month FCF was $6.834 billion, which is 7.15% of total revenue of $95.633 billion [6] - Year-to-date (YTD), the FCF margin stands at 6.85%, with projections suggesting a conservative estimate of 3.425% for Q4 [7] Future Projections - Analysts forecast an average revenue of $110.32 billion for 2026, reflecting a 15.6% increase from the current year's estimates [5] - Based on these forecasts, FCF for 2026 could rise to approximately $5.74 billion, assuming a 6% FCF margin [8]

Core Insights - Longleaf Partners Fund reported a return of -0.33% in Q3 2025, underperforming the S&P 500's 8.12% and Russell 1000 Value's 5.33% returns, expressing dissatisfaction with the portfolio's flat performance [1] - The fund focuses on investments in real assets and brands that generate growing free cash flow (FCF) per share, anticipating an increase in its ~10x FCF multiple to the mid-teens as management implements margin improvement strategies and share repurchases [1] Company Specifics - CNX Resources Corporation (NYSE:CNX) is highlighted as a key investment, with a one-month return of 1.58% and a 52-week loss of 10.47%, closing at $32.74 per share with a market capitalization of $4.63 billion on October 23, 2025 [2] - The fund expects CNX Resources to trade at a premium FCF multiple of 10-15x as its hedges mature and share repurchases continue, projecting that the stock price could exceed $50 per share due to higher-than-expected FCF per share from its low-cost approach [3] Market Position - CNX Resources is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 33 hedge fund portfolios holding the stock at the end of Q2 2025, down from 36 in the previous quarter [4] - While acknowledging CNX Resources' potential, the analysis suggests that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and lower downside risk [4]

Group 1 - Longleaf Partners Fund reported a return of -0.33% in Q3 2025, underperforming the S&P 500's 8.12% and Russell 1000 Value's 5.33% [1] - The fund focuses on investments in real assets and brands that generate growing free cash flow (FCF) per share, with an expectation that the FCF multiple could rise from ~10x to the mid-teens [1] - The fund's management is implementing strategies to improve margins and increase share repurchases [1] Group 2 - Fidelity National Information Services Inc. (NYSE:FIS) was highlighted as a stock in the Longleaf Partners Fund's Q3 2025 investor letter, with a one-month return of 7.20% but a 52-week loss of 23.24% [2] - As of October 23, 2025, FIS stock closed at $67.53 per share, with a market capitalization of $35.788 billion [2] - FIS's Capital Markets segment grew by 5%, which was below expectations, and management noted skepticism in the market despite a rebound in volumes [3] Group 3 - FIS's margins were slightly lower than expected due to an acquisition with lower margins, which is anticipated to improve as integration progresses [3] - The upcoming purchase of Global Payment's Issuer Solutions business and the sale of FIS's remaining Worldpay stake are expected to enhance economic predictability and increase FCF conversion [3] - FIS's management has increased its 2025 stock repurchase plan by $100 million to $1.3 billion, citing that the share price is perceived as too low [3] Group 4 - FIS is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 49 hedge fund portfolios holding the stock at the end of Q2 2025, down from 56 in the previous quarter [4] - While FIS is recognized for its investment potential, certain AI stocks are believed to offer greater upside potential and less downside risk [4]

Group 1: Fund Performance - Longleaf Partners Fund returned -0.33% in Q3 2025, underperforming the S&P 500's 8.12% and the Russell 1000 Value's 5.33% [1] - The firm is dissatisfied with the portfolio's flat performance, focusing on investments in real assets and brands that generate growing free cash flow (FCF) per share [1] - The fund anticipates that its ~10x FCF multiple could rise to the mid-teens as management implements strategies to improve margins and increase share repurchases [1] Group 2: FedEx Corporation Overview - FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) had a one-month return of 1.44% and a 52-week loss of 11.34%, closing at $238.17 per share with a market capitalization of $56.925 billion on October 23, 2025 [2] - The company is focused on operational improvements despite a challenging macro environment, with expectations for significant value realization from the separation of its Freight unit next year [3] Group 3: Investment Sentiment - FedEx Corporation is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 67 hedge fund portfolios holding the stock at the end of Q2 2025, up from 62 in the previous quarter [4] - The company's revenue increased by 3% year-over-year, driven by strength in U.S. domestic package services [4] - While FedEx shows potential as an investment, certain AI stocks are considered to offer greater upside potential and less downside risk [4]

Core Insights - Longleaf Partners Fund reported a return of -0.33% in Q3 2025, underperforming the S&P 500's 8.12% and the Russell 1000 Value's 5.33% [1] - The fund focuses on investments in real assets and brands that generate growing free cash flow (FCF) per share, with an expectation that the FCF multiple could rise from ~10x to the mid-teens [1] Company Highlights - Rayonier Inc. (NYSE: RYN) is highlighted as a leading timberland real estate investment trust, with a one-month return of -11.61% and a 52-week loss of 25.71% [2] - As of October 23, 2025, Rayonier Inc. shares closed at $23.27, with a market capitalization of $3.6 billion [2] M&A Activity - Rayonier Inc. and PotlatchDeltic announced a merger of equals, which is viewed as a win/win scenario with real synergies that could enhance the value per share of the combined entity [3] - The fund expresses excitement about these complementary investments, noting that both companies were acquired at large discounts and have multiple avenues for growth [3]

Core Insights - Longleaf Partners Fund reported a return of -0.33% in Q3 2025, underperforming the S&P 500's 8.12% and the Russell 1000 Value's 5.33% [1] - The fund focuses on investments in real assets and brands that generate growing free cash flow (FCF) per share, with expectations of an increase in FCF multiple from ~10x to the mid-teens [1] - The fund highlighted PotlatchDeltic Corporation as a key investment, which has a market capitalization of $3.27 billion and a one-month return of 5.57% [2] Investment Highlights - PotlatchDeltic Corporation is a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) owning nearly 2.1 million acres of timberlands, with shares gaining 0.50% over the last 52 weeks [2] - The fund expressed excitement over the merger of PotlatchDeltic Corporation and Rayonier, viewing it as a win/win scenario with real synergies that enhance the value per share of the combined entity [3] - Both PotlatchDeltic and Rayonier were acquired at large discounts, presenting multiple avenues for growth [3]