V i e w p o i n t | 01 Jul 2025 23:10:31 ET │ 12 pages India Economics Likely Contours of an India-US Trade Deal CITI'S TAKE Although clarity is still limited, we outline factors to watch in a potential India-US trade deal. The pre-July 09 trade deal could act as a broad framework until a comprehensive deal before the QUAD summit (October/November). [1] For manufactured goods, it's unclear whether it would be "zero-for-zero" tariffs or the 10% baseline US tariff stays. [2] Gradual multi-year or immediate re ...

Bilateral Relationship & Geopolitics - The discussion is shifting towards the opportunities Australia can capitalize on, especially considering the US's stance on China, rather than focusing solely on diplomatic risks [3] - Both Canberra and Beijing acknowledge the current state of their relationship, understanding they are not geopolitically aligned, but recognize the existing opportunities [3] - Beijing's primary focus is on the US, and it sees little benefit in escalating issues with Australia at this time [9] Trade & Economic Opportunities - The China-Australia Free Trade Agreement has been in operation for ten years, during which Australian trade with China has more than doubled compared to trade with the rest of the world [4] - Australian exports to China face an average tariff of only 11%, significantly lower than the tariff imposed by the Trump administration on Australian exports, which is nearly ten times higher [6] - Despite the US banning Chinese electric vehicles, Chinese EVs are prevalent in Australia due to their price and quality [11] - 98% of Australia's lithium exports currently go to China due to demand [13] Domestic Politics & Security - The Port of Darwin issue is likely driven more by domestic politics than genuine security concerns [7] - Security agencies stated that the Port of Darwin was fine in 2015, 2021 and 2023 [2] US-Australia Relations - Washington is not behaving as a friend to Canberra, which the Australian government must acknowledge [5] - Australia is not abandoning its security alliance with the United States [10]