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原木:供给回升库存累积,原木价格回调
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-16 01:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Due to slow outbound at the demand - end and a rapid recovery of inbound at the supply - end, port inventories have accumulated, leading to a decline in log prices. The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms. The GDP growth target has been adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5% - 5.0%", and the scale of policy - based financial instruments has been increased. Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real - estate policies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2605 contract, the closing price on March 13, 2026, was 792.5, with a daily increase of 0.4% and a weekly decrease of 1.2%. The trading volume was 3640, with a daily decrease of 18.9% and a weekly decrease of 75%. The open interest was 8209, with a daily decrease of 0.2% and a weekly decrease of 14%. Similar data is provided for the 2607 and 2609 contracts [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between the spot and 2605 contract on March 13, 2026, was - 22.5, with a daily increase of 18.4% and a weekly decrease of 31%. Other spreads such as 2605 - 2607, 2605 - 2609, and 2607 - 2609 also showed different daily and weekly changes [1]. - **Spot Market**: In the log spot market, most prices remained stable, with some showing small changes. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market was 770 yuan/m³, with no daily or weekly change. In the wood - square spot market, prices were also mostly stable [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Demand - end outbound is slow, supply - end inbound recovers rapidly, port inventories accumulate, and log prices decline. The 2026 government work report aims to stabilize expectations, adjust the structure, prevent risks, and promote reforms. Shanghai has optimized real - estate policies [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The log trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].