1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Oscillating [2] - Apple: Bullish with oscillations [5] - Logs: Oscillating [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The US Department of Agriculture's new - year cotton planting intentions exceeded market expectations. ICE cotton futures gave back previous gains, while domestic Zhengzhou cotton maintained an oscillating trend. The "Golden March" for downstream products is coming to an end, and the increase in subsequent orders remains to be seen. Overall, Zhengzhou cotton maintains a relatively strong stance [2]. - Apple cold - storage trading in production areas is somewhat light. Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, merchants' enthusiasm for restocking is low. The contradiction between high prices and limited consumer acceptance still exists, and the listing of seasonal fruits in April will suppress the upward space of futures prices. The market is also facing delivery disturbances in the short term, and the price may maintain an oscillating trend [5]. - The domestic log supply is highly dependent on imports. The inventory shows the characteristics of "de - stocking before the festival and inventory accumulation after the festival". The increase in import costs provides strong support for futures prices. The demand for logs is mainly from the real - estate construction sector, and the real - estate industry is still in an adjustment period, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation. In the short term, prices may oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan per cubic meter [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 397,954, and the open interest was 1,077,502. The settlement prices were 15,330 for May, 15,460 for September, and 15,880 for January. The settlement price of the ICE May contract was 70.00, down 19 points; July was 72.13, down 29 points; December was 74.34, down 27 points, with a trading volume of about 113,000 lots [2]. Important Information - From January to February 2026, the yarn output of large - scale enterprises was 3.308 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% [2]. - In December 2025, the sales of clothing and clothing fabrics by US wholesalers were $13.443 billion, a year - on - year increase of 2.47% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.63% [2]. - Last week, 3,700 tons of US cotton were inspected, with a cumulative inspection of 3.0544 million tons [2]. - On March 30, the cotton yarn futures reduced trading volume and open interest, and the price declined, while the spot price remained stable. The sales price of cotton yarn from spinning enterprises was slightly weak, and some enterprises with rising inventories sold at discounted prices. The operating rate of the downstream weaving market remained at a high level, with good sales of 40S compact - spun yarn, and the supply shortage of about 60S high - count yarn was alleviated, but the price remained firm [2]. Market Logic - The US Department of Agriculture's new - year cotton planting intentions exceeded market expectations, causing ICE cotton futures to give back previous gains. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton maintained an oscillating trend. The "Golden March" for downstream products is coming to an end, and the increase in subsequent orders remains to be seen. Overall, Zhengzhou cotton maintains a relatively strong stance [2]. Trading Strategy - For the 05 contract, gradually roll over long positions below 15,300 yuan per ton to the 09 contract and control the position [2]. Apple Market Review - The apple futures price declined, and the main contract was shifted. The closing price of the 2605 contract was 9,826 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.38% [5]. Important Information - In Shandong, the price of bagged late - Fuji apples (80) was 3.80 - 4.00 yuan per catty (striped red, first - and second - grade); the price of bagged late - Fuji apples (above 80) was 3.00 - 3.50 yuan per catty (striped red, general goods); the price of bagged late - Fuji apples (above 80) of the third - grade was 2.50 - 2.80 yuan per catty; the price of striped 80 first - and second - grade apples was 4.10 - 4.50 yuan per catty [5]. - In Shaanxi, the price of bagged late - Fuji apples (starting from 70) of semi - commercial grade was 4.70 - 4.80 yuan per catty. In the Weinan production area, there was a small amount of merchant - sourced goods left in cold storage, mainly self - shipped, with little procurement for transfer. The market was stable. The current price of late - Fuji apples (starting from 75) of general goods was about 4.00 yuan per catty [5]. - In Gansu, the price of late - Fuji apples (above 75) of mountain - grown semi - commercial grade in Renda Town was about 4.50 yuan per catty [5]. Market Logic - Apple cold - storage trading in production areas is somewhat light. Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, merchants' enthusiasm for restocking is low. The contradiction between high prices and limited consumer acceptance still exists, and the listing of seasonal fruits in April will suppress the upward space of futures prices. The market is also facing delivery disturbances in the short term, and the price may maintain an oscillating trend [5]. Trading Strategy - Maintain a bullish view on the 05 contract. Reduce long positions below 10,000 yuan per ton [5]. Logs Market Review - The log futures price declined. The closing price of the main 2605 contract was 820.0 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 0.67% [7]. Important Information - The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from yesterday and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from last week; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from yesterday and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from last week [7]. - As of January 23, the total domestic coniferous log inventory decreased by 3.11% to 2.49 million cubic meters; the radiata pine inventory decreased by 2.3% to 2.12 million cubic meters, and the inventories of North American timber and spruce - fir both decreased by 10,000 tons [7]. - The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 from last week [7]. Market Logic - The domestic log supply is highly dependent on imports, with New Zealand accounting for 64% of imports. From January to February 2026, New Zealand's log shipping rhythm first decreased and then increased. The inventory shows the characteristics of "de - stocking before the festival and inventory accumulation after the festival". The increase in import costs provides strong support for futures prices. The demand for logs is mainly from the real - estate construction sector, and the real - estate industry is still in an adjustment period, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation. In the short term, prices may oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan per cubic meter [7]. Trading Strategy - The 05 contract of logs will oscillate [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore: Slow resumption of hot metal production, and ore prices are under pressure [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak market sentiment, with repeated fluctuations [2][8] - Ferrosilicon: Fluctuations in market trading sentiment, with the futures market showing weak oscillations [2][13] - Silicomanganese: Tightening demand expectations at the ore end, with the futures market showing weak oscillations [2][13] - Coke and coking coal: Oscillating weakly [2][16][17] - Logs: Improving demand, with prices oscillating at a high level [2][20] 3. Summary by Category Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 808.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan or 0.62%. The trading volume was 353,624 lots, a decrease of 17,797 lots. Among spot prices, PB (61.5%) was 777.0 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Previous structural contradictions drove iron ore prices to a relatively high level. Recently, there are expectations of easing in negotiations, and the driving force is expected to weaken, leading to a decline in ore prices. The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, with the GDP growth rate adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5%-5.0%", and an increase in the scale of policy-based financial instruments. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 231.09 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.94 tons [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook [6]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 futures contract was 3,294 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.33%. The trading volume was 477,403 lots, and the open interest was 901,052 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots. Among spot prices, the Shanghai rebar price was 3,220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In February 2026, China exported 783.8 tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 1.1%, with an average export price of 729.0 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month increase of 6.7%. From January to February, the cumulative steel exports were 1,559.2 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. In March, the output of rebar decreased by 5.46 tons, and the output of hot-rolled coil increased by 5.4 tons [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon 2605 futures contract was 5,874 yuan/ton, down 192 yuan. The trading volume was 166,212 lots, and the open interest was 158,901 lots. The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In March, the silicon - manganese production in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia increased. However, starting from April 1, many enterprises announced production cuts. A steel mill in Jiangsu set the silicon - manganese price at 6,580 yuan/ton in late March [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a bearish outlook [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the JM2605 coking coal futures contract was 1,148.5 yuan/ton, down 65.5 yuan or 5.4%. The trading volume was 863,734 lots, and the open interest was 396,170 lots, a decrease of 3,810 lots. The spot price of Linfen low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1,580 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 31, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed certain trends. The online auction of coking coal had a high rejection rate, and the market sentiment was weak [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a bearish outlook [19]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 820.5 yuan, with a daily decline of 0.7%. The trading volume was 4,637 lots, a decrease of 15.2%. The open interest was 11,027 lots, a decrease of 3.2%. The spot price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market was 790 yuan/m³, unchanged [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, with the GDP growth rate adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5%-5.0%", and an increase in the scale of policy - based financial instruments [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for logs is improving, and the price is fluctuating at a high level [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - For the 2605 contract, the closing price on March 31, 2026, was 820.5, with a daily decline of 0.7% and a weekly increase of 0.6%. The trading volume was 4637, with a daily decrease of 15.2% and a weekly decrease of 38%. The open interest was 11027, with a daily decrease of 3.2% and a weekly decrease of 9% [1] - For the 2607 contract, the closing price was 820, with a daily decline of 0.4% and a weekly increase of 1%. The trading volume was 923, with a daily increase of 17.0% and a weekly increase of 13%. The open interest was 3718, with a daily increase of 7.7% and a weekly increase of 39% [1] - For the 2609 contract, the closing price was 824.5, with a daily decline of 0.5% and a weekly increase of 0%. The trading volume was 212, with a daily increase of 41.3% and a weekly decrease of 48%. The open interest was 1628, with a daily increase of 4.9% and a weekly increase of 25% [1] - **Spread Data**: - The spread between the spot and the 2605 contract was -30.5 on March 31, 2026, with a daily decline of 15.3% and a weekly decline of 15% - The spread between the 2605 - 2607 contracts was 0.5, with a daily decline of 80.0% and a weekly decline of 50% - The spread between the 2605 - 2609 contracts was -4, with a daily increase of 60.0% and a weekly decline of 20% [1] - **Spot Market Data**: - In the log spot market, the prices of different types of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu markets showed various trends. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market was 790, with a daily increase of 0.0% and a weekly increase of 1.3% [1] - In the wood - square spot market, the prices of different types of wood squares in different regions also had their own characteristics. For example, the median price of 3 - meter radiata pine wood squares in Rizhao was 1250, with a daily increase of 0.0% and a weekly increase of 0.0% [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In 2026, the government work report focused on stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms. The GDP growth target was adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5% - 5.0%", and the scale of policy - based financial instruments was increased [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating form [1] - Natural rubber: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating form [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides an analysis of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and gives corresponding investment suggestions based on the market conditions of each commodity [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices declined, and the Wenhua Commodity Index dropped significantly. Spot basis remained stable, but spot trading demand was weak. As of March 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 523.02 million tons, a decrease of 24.68 million tons from the end of February, and 5.31 million tons higher than the same period last year. The domestic peak season showed good performance, and the inventory of cotton yarn and grey cloth was well - digested. The short - term pure cotton yarn sales slowed down. Mid - term, Zhengzhou cotton maintains a bullish strategy [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. The market focuses on Brazil's sugar production forecast. After the rainy season, the rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil is low, and the sugar - making ratio in the new season is expected to decline, so the sugar production in the 26/27 season will decrease. In China, the production progress in Guangxi this year is slow, and the production is lower than the same period last year. However, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season. The sugar sales of sugar mills this year are poor. In general, the domestic supply - demand is relatively loose in the 25/26 season, and the sugar price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants in the northwest producing areas decreased, and the trading volume in Shandong was small. As of March 26, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 3.8947 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease. The trading logic is mainly on the demand side. The demand in the northwest producing areas is good, but the apples in Shandong have poor quality and high purchase prices, which may affect the de - stocking speed. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber WR, and butadiene rubber BR all declined, and the domestic spot prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber also decreased. The global natural rubber supply is entering the production - increasing period. The domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate continued to decline rapidly. The domestic tire operating rate increased slightly, and the production and transportation cost pressure of domestic tire enterprises increased. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased to 69.14 million tons. It is recommended to wait and see and grasp the cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - The pulp futures rebounded but then declined. The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a high level. As of March 26, 2026, the sample inventory of China's main pulp ports was 2.395 million tons, a 980,000 - ton increase from the previous period, a 4.3% month - on - month increase. The overseas quotation of pulp is strong, and the long - term cost has certain support. The domestic pulp demand is generally average, and the procurement of high - price broad - leaf pulp is cautious. The short - term pulp may maintain a low - level range - bound [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. The overseas quotation increased significantly, and the domestic spot price was relatively weak. The downstream demand increased, and the port outbound volume increased. As of March 27, the national port log total inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a 19.72% year - on - year decrease. The low inventory supports the price to a certain extent. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The log market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, with the positive spread widening [1]. - The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms. The GDP growth target is adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5% - 5.0%", and the scale of policy - based financial instruments is increased [3]. - The trend strength of logs is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2605 contract, the closing price on March 30, 2026, was 826, with a daily increase of 1.0% and a weekly increase of 0.4%. The trading volume was 5467, a daily increase of 47.5% and a weekly increase of 2%. The open interest was 11387, a daily increase of 0.2% and a weekly decrease of 15%. Similar data is provided for the 2607 and 2609 contracts [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between 2605 - 2607 increased by 400.0% daily and 67% weekly; the spread between 2605 - 2609 decreased by 28.6% daily and 50% weekly; the spread between 2607 - 2609 increased by 25.0% daily and decreased by 23% weekly [1]. - **Spot Market**: In the log spot market, prices of various types of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu markets showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market increased by 1.3% daily and weekly. In the wood square spot market, prices also had different trends, such as the 3 - meter radiata pine wood square in Zhenjiang having a daily decrease of 0.8% and a weekly decrease of 2.3% [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The 2026 government work report aims to stabilize expectations, adjust the economic structure, prevent risks, and promote reforms. The GDP growth target is adjusted, and the scale of policy - based financial instruments is increased [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of logs is - 1, within the range of [-2, 2], indicating a relatively bearish view [4].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 30, 2026 - A-Share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.24% to 3923.29, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 13726.19, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.68% to 3273.36. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1927.8 billion yuan, an increase of 63.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Index futures: The CSI 300 Index fluctuated within a range, closing at 4491.95, a decrease of 10.62 from the previous day [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index of coke fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1788.5, an increase of 4.9 from the previous day. In March, geopolitical factors led to rising raw material prices, and coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, which has not been implemented yet. From January to February 2026, the cumulative national coke production was 82.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [2][4]. - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 1271.5 yuan, an increase of 0.2 from the previous day. The coking coal production decreased year - on - year, but geopolitical issues affected energy prices. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative coking coal imports were 19.8269 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.05% [3][4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - The Zhengzhou Sugar 2609 contract fluctuated widely, rising in the morning due to factors such as rising crude oil prices and higher spot quotes, and then falling due to the decline in crude oil prices. At night, it was pressured by short - sellers and continued to decline. In the first half of March, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 88.6% year - on - year to 6000 tons [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. At night, it continued its recent oscillating trend, waiting for the situation in the Middle East to become clear. India's natural rubber demand is expected to grow by about 3.6% this year [6]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - International market: On March 30, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1158.75 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.06%. The U.S. soybean export inspection was lower than expected. As of March 26, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 75%, lower than 82% in the same period last year. The estimated output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is about 180 million tons. - Domestic market: On March 30, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2937 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. With the relaxation of weed quarantine standards for Brazilian soybean shipments, the customs clearance speed of soybean cargo ships will be accelerated. From April to May, with the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean supply will become more abundant, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to stop decreasing and start to rise [6]. 2.5 Live Pigs - On March 30, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 10005 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4%. The monthly - end slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises slowed down slightly, and small - scale pig farms were more reluctant to sell. However, due to the high inventory of sows and improved production efficiency, the supply of market - ready pigs continued to increase, while the demand was insufficient, resulting in a situation of oversupply [6]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On March 30, affected by the news that Indonesia plans to restart its biodiesel program this year, the palm oil futures rose strongly in the afternoon. The main contract P2605 closed at 9930, an increase of 1.66% from the previous trading day. Indonesia will officially promote the B50 biodiesel blending policy this year [6]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly, holding above the key level of 95,000 yuan. The CU2605 contract opened at 95080 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 96000 yuan and a minimum of 94750 yuan, closing at 95760 yuan. The trading volume was 1 million lots. The spot market was stable, and the inventory continued to decline. The fundamental supply was tight, and the downstream demand was recovering steadily [6][7]. 2.8 Cotton - On the night of March 30, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15405 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 1 lot compared with the previous trading day, and new cotton sowing has begun. Downstream textile enterprises purchase on demand [7]. 2.9 Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 825.5, with a minimum of 816, a maximum of 830, and closed at 826, with an increase of 24 lots in positions. The spot prices of medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. As of March 27, the domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.69% [7]. 2.10 Iron Ore - On March 30, the main contract of iron ore 2605 fluctuated and closed up 0.06%, at 813 yuan. The iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased month - on - month, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mills continued to resume production. In the short term, the iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [7]. 2.11 Asphalt - On March 30, the main contract of asphalt 2606 fluctuated and closed up 0.02%, at 4513 yuan. The refining and production plan of local refineries in April decreased to a low level in recent years, the refinery operating rate was low, the terminal road construction demand was weak, and the refinery shipments continued to decline. In the short term, the asphalt price may follow the oil price [7]. 2.12 Steel - On March 30, rb2605 closed at 3139 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3308 yuan/ton. The military actions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran have lasted for a month, and the situation in the Middle East is still complex. Due to concerns about the further escalation of the situation in the Middle East, the international oil price oscillated at a high level on Monday. The attack on Iranian core steel mills affected the steel supply in the Middle East. The domestic steel market is affected by "cost support + export obstacles", and the steel consumption is recovering slowly. In the short term, the steel market is affected by both positive and negative factors, and the increase in steel prices may be limited [7]. 2.13 Alumina - On March 30, ao2605 closed at 2941 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price has been rising strongly after reaching the bottom. This round of price increase is driven by multiple factors, but the market also faces the core suppression of long - term oversupply, showing a pattern of "strong short - term reality and weak long - term expectation" [7]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On March 30, al2605 closed at 24725 yuan/ton. The supply side of the fundamentals is operating stably, the aluminum - to - water ratio has increased slightly, the platform inventory is still high, the social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to accumulate, and the aluminum rods are showing signs of inventory reduction. The demand side shows a contraction in receiving goods, and the downstream and terminal are still waiting and seeing [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The positive expectations of biodiesel support the strengthening of edible oils. The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be oscillating upwards. Considering the high uncertainty in the Middle East situation, high - running crude oil prices, and the expected increase in biodiesel demand, it is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying at stage - low prices [1][6]. - For protein meal, the supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the market will continue to oscillate. The market for soybean meal and rapeseed meal will be affected by the Middle East situation and industrial factors, showing an oscillating trend [7]. - The sentiment in the corn market is loosening, and both futures and spot prices are falling. In the short - term, the price will face callbacks, and in the medium - term, it will maintain an oscillating range [9]. - The supply of live pigs remains high, and the pig price is still weak. In the short - term, the price will run weakly; in the medium - term, the downward cycle continues; in the long - term, the pig price is expected to gradually bottom out and warm up in the third quarter [10]. - The sentiment in the natural rubber market is warm, and the market will maintain an oscillating trend. The price is mainly driven by the macro - logic, and there are some positive factors on the supply side [11][13]. - The sentiment in the synthetic rubber market has cooled slightly, and it maintains a high - level oscillation. The tight supply of butadiene supports the market, and it is still likely to rise [14]. - The cotton price is running strongly. In the medium - and long - term, both the domestic and international cotton markets are bullish, and in the short - term, the 05 contract will oscillate strongly [15][16]. - The sugar price is oscillating, and the supply - demand pattern is still loose, waiting for the new - season harvest in Brazil. In the short - term, it will oscillate, and in the medium - and long - term, there may be an upward driving force [17][18]. - The pulp market is in a stalemate and maintains an oscillating trend. The price is restricted by the weak supply - demand of softwood pulp but supported by costs [20][21]. - The double - offset paper market is weakly oscillating. In the short - term, the spot price drags down the market, and in the medium - term, the publishing tender will support the price [22][23]. - The log inventory is decreasing, and the market is strongly oscillating. The high cost and low inventory support the market, but there is a risk of high - level oscillation [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: The positive expectations of biodiesel support the strengthening of edible oils [1][6]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical risks exist, and oil prices are oscillating at a high level. Indonesia will continue the biodiesel B50 plan, and Malaysia's palm oil production decreased and exports increased in March. The US EPA released renewable fuel obligation targets, increasing the production and consumption of biodiesel. Domestic soybean oil inventory decreased due to refinery maintenance, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased weekly, with expected increased supply [1][6][8]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate upwards. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying at stage - low prices [1][6]. 3.1.2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the market will continue to oscillate [7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the market expects an increase in US soybean planting area, and the Middle East situation affects oil prices. The renewable fuel obligation targets are in line with expectations, and there are both positive and negative factors for US soybeans. Domestically, oil mills are actively hedging, and the market expects a decrease in soybean crushing volume. Feed enterprises' demand is weak [7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate [7]. 3.1.3. Corn - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment is loosening, and both futures and spot prices are falling [9]. - **Logic**: Upstream, the warming temperature leads to an increase in the grain - selling rhythm. Downstream, the demand from the feed and deep - processing sectors is stable and recovering. The supply - demand pattern is gradually easing, and there is competition from substitute grains [9]. - **Outlook**: The price will oscillate. In the short - term, there is a risk of callbacks, and in the medium - term, it will maintain an oscillating range [9]. 3.1.4. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The supply remains high, and the pig price is still weak [10]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. In the medium - term, the出栏 pressure continues. In the long - term, the production capacity reduction process is not smooth, and the pig price is expected to bottom out and warm up in the third quarter [10]. - **Outlook**: The price will oscillate weakly. In the first half of the year, it is recommended to focus on the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices. In the fourth quarter, the price is expected to rise moderately [10]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the market is warm [11]. - **Logic**: The market risk preference is improving, and the price is mainly driven by the macro - logic. There are some positive factors on the supply side, and the downstream inventory is relatively optimistic. There is a need for price adjustment seasonally [13]. - **Outlook**: The market will maintain an oscillating trend [13]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment has cooled slightly, and it maintains a high - level oscillation [14]. - **Logic**: The tight supply of butadiene supports the market. Although the upward momentum has cooled, the supply shortage situation remains, and it is still likely to rise [14]. - **Outlook**: The market will follow the sector sentiment. If the crude oil price continues to rise, the market will remain strong in the short - term [14][15]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price is running strongly [15]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the supply of cotton in the 26/27 season is expected to tighten. Domestically, the commercial inventory is decreasing, and the demand is stable. The overall fundamentals are positive [16]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate strongly. In the medium - and long - term, it is bullish, and it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying at low prices after callbacks [16][17]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price is oscillating, and the supply - demand pattern is still loose, waiting for the new - season harvest in Brazil [17]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the price will oscillate due to the impact of the Middle East conflict on oil prices. In the medium - and long - term, if the oil price remains high, it may affect Brazil's production and tighten the global sugar supply [18]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate. In the short - term, the price range is 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton. In the medium - and long - term, there may be an upward driving force [18]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The market is in a stalemate and maintains an oscillating trend [20]. - **Logic**: The consumption of hardwood pulp is strong, and that of softwood pulp is weak. The demand will decrease seasonally, and the supply pressure is high. However, the cost provides support [21]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate. The price is restricted by the supply - demand but supported by costs [21][22]. 3.1.10. Double - Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The market is weakly oscillating [22]. - **Logic**: The spot price is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. The publishing tender in April and May will support the price, but the long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [23]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate, and the price will run in the range of 4000 - 4300 yuan/ton [23]. 3.1.11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The inventory is decreasing, and the market is strongly oscillating [24]. - **Logic**: The port inventory is low, and the supply is affected by geopolitical factors, resulting in high costs and low supply. The demand has some resilience, but there is a risk of high - level oscillation [24]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate strongly. The price is supported by the cost but faces hedging pressure [24]. 3.2.品种数据监测 No specific data information is provided in the given content for detailed summary. 3.3.中信期货商品指数 - **综合指数**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index), and sector index (agricultural products index) are provided. The commodity 20 index increased by 1.01% to 2829.64, the industrial products index increased by 1.10% to 2584.88, and the agricultural products index increased by 0.04% on March 30, 2026, with a 5 - day decline of 0.42%, a 1 - month increase of 0.87%, and a year - to - date increase of 2.12% [185][187].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Paper pulp: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish or bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish or bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish or bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor market operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish or bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor market operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor market operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] 2. Core Views - For the cotton and cotton yarn market, the medium - term strategy for Zhengzhou cotton is bullish, but concerns exist about potential over - advance consumption. Attention should be paid to subsequent order performance and new - season planting [2]. - In the sugar market, the 25/26 domestic sugar supply - demand situation is relatively loose, and short - term sugar prices are expected to remain volatile [3]. - Regarding the apple market, the trading logic is centered on the demand side. Due to the low cost - effectiveness of Shandong apples, prices are struggling to rise, and the current operation strategy is to wait and see [4]. - In the 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and synthetic rubber markets, geopolitical risks are rising, with cost as the main driver, demand relatively stable, and the strategy is to wait and see while seizing cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5]. - For the paper pulp market, short - term pulp prices are likely to remain in a low - level volatile range [6]. - In the timber market, low inventory provides some support for prices, and the current operation strategy is to wait and see [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton maintained a narrow - range oscillation, and spot basis was generally stable. Spot trading demand was weak, but cotton sales volume and progress were significantly better. As of March 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 523.02 million tons, with a decrease of 24.68 million tons from the end of February, and 5.31 million tons more than the same period last year [2]. - The domestic peak season showed a good performance, with continuous increases in the startup rate, and good inventory digestion of cotton yarn and grey cloth. Recently, the sales of pure - cotton yarn have slowed down [2]. Sugar - Last week, US sugar oscillated. In Brazil, less rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas after the rainy season was unfavorable for sugarcane growth. The sugar - to - alcohol ratio has significantly adjusted, and the sugar - production ratio in the new season is expected to decline, resulting in a decrease in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season [3]. - In China, Guangxi's production progress this year is slow, with lower - than - expected output. However, there are strong expectations of an increase in Guangxi's output in the 25/26 season. This year, sugar mills have poor sales due to strong bearish market expectations [3]. Apple - The futures price oscillated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. In the northwest producing areas, the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants decreased. In Shandong, trading volume was low. Merchants in Shaanxi and Gansu were mainly looking for high - quality goods, but the remaining high - quality goods were scarce [4]. - As of March 26, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 3.8947 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease. Last week, the national cold - storage apple outbound volume was 294,500 tons, a 9.66% year - on - year decrease [4]. 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures price of natural rubber RU oscillated, the futures price of 20 - rubber NR rose slightly, and the futures price of butadiene rubber BR fell slightly. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, and the synthetic rubber spot price generally rose. The overseas port price of butadiene fell slightly, and the raw material market price in Thailand mostly rose [5]. - Globally, the natural rubber supply has entered the increasing - production period from the low - production period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to decline significantly last week, with many plants under maintenance or reducing production loads. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate also continued to decline [5]. - Last week, the domestic tire operating rate increased slightly, with increased production and transportation cost pressures for domestic tire enterprises. The inventory of all - steel tires in Shandong continued to decline rapidly, while the inventory of semi - steel tires began to decline again [5]. - Last week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 685,600 tons, with increases in both bonded - area inventory and general - trade inventory. The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 17,000 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory decreased to 23,000 tons [5]. Paper Pulp - Today, the pulp futures price fell slightly, and the spot price remained stable. The domestic pulp port inventory was still at a high level. As of March 26, 2026, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 2.395 million tons, an increase of 98,000 tons from the previous period, a 4.3% month - on - month increase [6]. - Overseas pulp quotations were strong, providing some support for long - term costs. The overseas quotation of broad - leaf pulp increased in March, while that of coniferous pulp decreased. Domestic pulp demand was generally average, with cautious purchases of high - priced broad - leaf pulp, and poor downstream base - paper prices and profits [6]. Timber - The futures price was strong. The mainstream spot price remained stable. The overseas quotation increased significantly, while the domestic spot price was relatively weak, and the future arrival volume might be relatively low [7]. - Downstream demand increased, and the port outbound volume increased. Last week, the average daily outbound volume of national ports was 61,400 cubic meters, an 8.36% year - on - year decrease. As of March 27, the total national port timber inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a 19.72% year - on - year decrease [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Manganese silicon, Ferrosilicon, Logs [1] - **Bearish**: Zinc, Pulp [1] - **Neutral**: Stock index, Treasury bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Precious metals, Platinum and palladium, Industrial silicon, Polycrystalline silicon, Lithium carbonate, Rebar, Hot rolled coil, Iron ore, Glass, Soda ash, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Diesel, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Methanol, PP, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping on the Europe route [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The external shocks on the stock index remain, but there is a short - term rebound opportunity due to changes in the US attitude and the possible opening of the Strait of Hormuz. In the long - term, the stock index is still optimistic. [1] - Treasury bonds are affected by multiple factors and will oscillate. [1] - Metal prices are affected by the complex situation in the Middle East, with different trends for each metal. For example, copper and aluminum prices oscillate, while zinc is bearish, and nickel and stainless steel are high - level oscillating. [1] - The prices of precious metals and platinum - palladium oscillate due to the shift of market trading narrative and the uncertain situation in the Middle East. [1] - The prices of industrial products such as steel, iron ore, and non - ferrous metals are affected by supply - demand relationships, cost, and geopolitical factors. [1] - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as production, consumption, and policies. For example, cotton prices are expected to rise in the long - term, while sugar prices have limited fluctuations. [1] - Energy and chemical product prices are significantly affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with some products facing supply shortages and price fluctuations. [1] - The container shipping on the Europe route is affected by war sentiment and shipping company strategies. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - **Stock index**: External shocks remain, but there is a short - term rebound opportunity. In the long - term, it is still optimistic. [1] - **Treasury bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors. [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintains an oscillating trend due to the complex situation in the Middle East. [1] - **Aluminum**: Price fluctuations intensify, and there are low - buying opportunities. [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the upward space is limited due to the oversupply pattern. [1] - **Zinc**: Bearish due to weak fundamentals, and the reversal depends on European natural gas prices. [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level, affected by policies and macro - emotions. Short - term low - buying is recommended. [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillates, and short - term low - buying opportunities should be focused on. [1] - **Tin**: The price is expected to be strong in the short - term due to potential production impacts. [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Prices may oscillate in the short - term due to the upgrading of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Prices are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear. [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, demand is weak, and the inventory is being reduced. [1] - **Polycrystalline silicon**: It is recommended to wait and see. [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Affected by factors such as demand and raw material disturbances. [1] Industrial products - **Rebar**: The price is mainly supported by cost, and it is treated as an oscillating market. [1] - **Hot rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong, and it is in the de - stocking cycle. It is recommended to operate with an oscillating idea and consider positive arbitrage. [1] - **Iron ore**: The price oscillates at a high level, and it is recommended to operate within a range. [1] - **Manganese silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Bullish due to short - term supply - demand growth and cost support. [1] - **Glass and Soda ash**: Oscillate, and soda ash follows the trend of glass. [1] - **Coking coal**: There is a risk of a sharp rise and fall, and attention should be paid to the development of the war. [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, Rapeseed oil**: The far - month prices are expected to rise due to high oil prices and increased quotas. [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the inventory is tightening, and domestic prices are expected to rise in the long - term. [1] - **Sugar**: The supply is abundant, and the price has limited fluctuations. [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term, but the decline range is limited. [1] - **Soybeans**: It is recommended to wait for the callback to lay out long positions in the far - month contracts. [1] - **Pulp**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term. [1] - **Logs**: Bullish due to the rise in the external market price. [1] Energy and chemical products - **Crude oil, Fuel oil**: Prices are affected by the Middle East situation, with supply concerns and negotiation information disturbances. [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports is relatively weak, and it is affected by the price of crude oil. [1] - **BR rubber**: The price has an upward space, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. [1] - **PTA**: The Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks. [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: The price rises due to raw material shortages. [1] - **Short fiber**: The price fluctuates with the cost. [1] - **Methanol**: The export is affected, but the domestic supply is abundant. [1] - **PP, PVC, Caustic soda**: Affected by the geopolitical situation and supply - demand fundamentals. [1] - **LPG**: The price is affected by multiple factors, with internal and external market differentiation. [1] Others - **Container shipping on the Europe route**: Affected by war sentiment and shipping company strategies, with a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season. [1]