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瑞银:诺和诺德(NVO.US)短期承压不改长期价值,维持“买入”评级
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 08:28
Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) with a 12-month target price of 750 Danish Krone, based on projected EPS for FY2025, industry valuations, growth potential relative to peers, and PharmaValues NPV valuation model [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Novo Nordisk's Q1 FY2025 sales increased by 18% year-on-year (constant currency), reaching 78.087 billion Danish Krone, aligning with analyst expectations [1] - The company's EBIT exceeded market expectations by 4.3%, while diluted EPS surpassed expectations by 4.9%, attributed to effective cost management in R&D and SG&A [2] - Sales growth expectations for FY2025 were revised down from 16%-24% to 13%-21%, and EBIT growth expectations were adjusted from 19%-27% to 16%-24%, primarily due to sluggish growth in the U.S. obesity market and increasing competition [2] Group 2: Product Performance - Sales of the flagship product Wegovy fell short of expectations, 7% below market consensus, mainly due to poor performance in the U.S. market, despite record prescription volumes [1] - Insulin product sales performed strongly, exceeding market expectations, which partially offset the shortfall from Wegovy [1] - Novo Nordisk plans to submit a marketing application for CagriSema in Q1 2026 and has submitted a supplemental new drug application for PDS290 (FlexTouch) to the FDA [3] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - Key growth drivers for Novo Nordisk include reversing the decline in Wegovy's U.S. market growth, expanding market coverage through partnerships, and focusing on commercial execution [3] - The company is currently in a "strategic adjustment period," needing to enhance commercial execution and R&D innovation to adapt to market changes [4] - Despite short-term pressures from a slowing U.S. obesity drug market, Novo Nordisk's first-mover advantage in the GLP-1 space and global expansion potential support long-term growth [4]