GLP - 1 多靶点新药

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山西证券研究早观点-20250414
Shanxi Securities· 2025-04-14 02:21
Company Overview - The report highlights that China Telecom (601728.SH) focuses on computing power investment and expanding into emerging fields, achieving a revenue of 523.57 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [4][5] - The service revenue reached 482.03 billion yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year, with EBITDA at 140.85 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.9% increase [4][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 33.01 billion yuan, marking an 8.4% year-on-year growth, with a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.36 yuan, also up 8.4% [4][5] Business Segments - The mobile communication service revenue grew to 202.5 billion yuan, a 3.5% increase year-on-year, with mobile value-added and application revenue rising by 16.1% to 29.9 billion yuan [5][6] - The fixed-line and smart home service revenue reached 125.7 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year, with smart home business revenue increasing by 16.8% to 22.1 billion yuan [5][6] - The broadband user base reached 197 million, with a net increase of 7 million users, and the broadband ARPU remained stable at 47.6 yuan [5][6] Emerging Business Growth - The report indicates that the digital industry revenue reached 146.6 billion yuan, a 5.5% increase, accounting for 30.4% of service revenue [5][6] - Tianyi Cloud revenue grew by 17.1% to 113.9 billion yuan, with international business revenue reaching 16.88 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year [5][6] - The company has made significant advancements in AI, quantum/safety, and satellite communication, with AI revenue increasing by 195.7% to 8.9 billion yuan [6] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - Capital expenditures are projected to decrease, with 2024 expenditures at 93.5 billion yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year, and a further decline to 83.6 billion yuan in 2025 [7][9] - The report anticipates a strong growth trajectory for revenue, EBITDA, and net profit through 2025, with a focus on maintaining high dividend payouts [9] - The company aims to achieve a payout ratio of 72% for 2024, with plans to increase cash distributions to over 75% of net profit within three years [9] Industry Insights - The GLP-1 RA market is projected to exceed 50 billion USD globally in 2024, with significant growth potential in diabetes and weight loss treatments [11][12] - The report notes that the number of diabetes patients in China is expected to reach 150 million by 2025, indicating a substantial market for GLP-1 drugs [11][12] - The introduction of domestic dual-target GLP-1 drugs is anticipated, with ongoing clinical trials showing promising results in weight loss and diabetes management [10][11]