【编者按】2025年，A股市场迎来里程碑式发展：总市值站上100万亿元的高峰，上证指数涨破4000点 创下近十年新高。站在"十五五"规划的开局之年，2026年A股市场又将如何演绎？哪些行业将孕育新的 投资机遇？ 搜狐财经《基金佳问》栏目特别推出"基遇2026"专题系列报道，复盘A股市场细分领域年内行情，展望 及预测2026年各热门赛道的投资机遇，把握后市资产配置的主逻辑，寻找具有投资潜力的基金产品。 针对过去一年火热的AI板块，肖瑞瑾分析了其驱动逻辑。他指出，行情主要由两条主线构成：一是受 益于海外云巨头资本开支的算力基础设施环节；二是围绕国产替代的国产算力产业链。 对于2026年，他依然看好算力领域的投资机会。尽管海外资本开支增速可能放缓，但绝对增长依然确 定；而国产芯片在关键制程上的突破将是国内产业链的核心看点。他强调，随着大模型从训练转向推理 阶段，推理侧的需求将呈现非线性增长，持续拉动算力需求。 关于市场热议的"AI泡沫论"，肖瑞瑾认为当前并不存在实质性泡沫。无论是美股龙头公司的估值水平， 还是资本开支的远期回报潜力，都尚在合理范围内。尤其对于中国，AI资本支出相比美国仍有巨大差 距，"历史欠账"意味 ...

但梁文锋的棋盘远不止芯片。据不完全统计，2025年他的平台参与了超百家公司的打新，成功捕获了一 批细分领域领头羊：新广益（电子耗材）、誉帆科技（管道修复）、强一股份（紧固件）、健信超导 （超导材料）、天溯计量（检测服务）、昂瑞微（射频芯片）……他们遍布高端制造、信息技术、新材 料等多个领域。 当然，捕手也有失算的时候。面对明星公司海光信息（高端处理器）、星环科技（大数据软件）、双欣 环保（化工材料），梁文锋的九章资产和幻方量化都因报价低于发行价而遗憾错过。 从量化天才到算力战略家，梁文锋的身价在芯片浪潮中水涨船高。2025年梁文锋以1846亿持股市值首次 跻身《2025年新财富500创富榜》前十。 1846亿！这位85后量化大佬，靠押注国产硬科技杀进创富榜前十。 国产GPU站上风口，一场属于硬科技的财富浪潮正在席卷。而在这股"芯贵"浪潮中，一个低调的名字 ——梁文锋，正通过他精密的布局，悄然构建起一个庞大的"算力帝国"。 这位85后浙大硕士，不仅是DeepSeek的创始人，更是精准卡位的投资高手。他不仅掌管着九章资产和 幻方量化两家知名私募，更深谙"投资即算力"的未来法则。 通过九章资产和幻方量化两个平台，梁 ...

作者：招商银行研究院 纽约分行 12月19日，日央行加息25bp，将政策利率上调至0.75%，符合市场预期，9位委员全票支持加息决议。 至此， 政策利率创1995年以来最高水平。这是日央行继2025年1月加息后，时隔11个月再次加息。 日央行加息符合预 期，市场反应平淡。日股延续上涨，日债10Y利率震荡走高，日元在加息落地后利好出尽贬值至156附近，其 余市场反应平淡。 一、政策：缓步加息 日央行在通胀高企与日元贬值的双重压力下选择加息。 通胀方面，11月日本CPI通胀高达3.0%，政策利率大幅 落后通胀曲线，实际利率位于深度负区间。汇率方面，美元兑日元一度突破156关口，日央行需要采取措施抑 制单边下行趋势。 图1：日央行政策利率大幅落后通胀曲线 资 料 来 源 ： M A C R O B O N D 、 招 商 银 行 研 究 院 资 料 来 源 ： M A C R O B O N D 、 招 商 银 行 研 究 院 图2：通胀压力集中在食品及水电燃气分项 图3：三季度日本经济陷入收缩 日央行可能不会选择快速追赶通胀曲线，缓慢加息仍是基准情形，未来加息斜率或保持2次/年，每次25bp， 2026年将政策利 ...

股指期货周报：股指将再受考验 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号：F0211891 投资咨询证号：Z0000567 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 第二部分 周度数据追踪 5 周度核心要点及策略推荐 【综合分析】 【策略推荐】 GALAXY FUTURES 3 逻辑梳理：本周市场保持高位震荡，上证指数周五创下4034点十年新高后尾盘快速跳水。宽基指数高位震荡，仅上证50指 数出现周阳线，市场分化严重。指数的分化源自行业板块的表现，人工智能硬件——光模块、英伟达产业链、国产芯片等 纷纷跌幅居前，资金大举流出，这与美股科技龙头震荡，国产芯片龙头公布业绩后不涨反跌，日本存储公司季报远低预期 等有关。相反资金流向大消费板块，高低切换显示了避险需求。 后市展望：科技股在下周继续面临压力。中芯国际略超预期的季报并未能再动板块，反而受大市影响下跌；摩尔线程招股 使现有GPU的替代性加强，是否会有共振走强还有待观察；虽然美股科技龙头有止跌迹象，但周末华为的新技术将使投资 者对算力投资再度生疑。科技股震荡之下，股指难有集体表现，预计市场将再探支撑。 期货方面：本周基差先收敛再扩大，周三市场盘中调整见底、科技股反弹的情况 ...

Group 1: Financial Derivatives - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The technology stocks continue to face pressure, and the stock index is expected to test the support again. The bond market's unilateral trend may be entangled in the short - term [19][21] - Summary of Related Catalogs: - **Stock Index Futures**: The market remained high - volatile last week, with severe differentiation. Technology stocks are under pressure, and the stock index is expected to test the support. The basis of futures first converged and then expanded, and IC's net short - position increased. Suggested strategies include high - level oscillation, paying attention to the 60 - day moving average support, and appropriate long - position building at low levels; IM\IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; and bullish spread at low levels [19] - **Treasury Futures**: The 10 - month macro - financial and economic indicators are weak, and the policy expectation has slightly increased. However, the probability of monetary policy strengthening is not high. The bond market's unilateral trend is entangled. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing; holding (TL - 3T) positions and trying to go long on the T - contract current - next quarterly spread [21] Group 2: Agricultural Products - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Different agricultural products have different market trends, mainly including price fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances, etc. [25][30][34] - Summary of Related Catalogs: - **Soybean Meal**: The monthly supply - demand report has limited bullishness, and the international soybean is in a high - yield pattern. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the crushing profit is under pressure. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing; selling wide - straddle options [25] - **Sugar**: The Brazilian sugar - making ratio has decreased, and the international sugar price has risen sharply. The global sugar production increase is being realized, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and may be affected by foreign prices in the long - term. Suggested strategies include short - term slightly bullish international sugar price, domestic sugar price range operation; waiting and seeing for arbitrage [30] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The palm oil is in the off - season, and the de - stocking is slow. The soybean oil follows the overall trend, and the rapeseed oil is expected to continue de - stocking. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing or high - selling and low - buying [34] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The CBOT corn futures are down, and the domestic corn spot price is rising, with the futures showing a strong - side oscillation. Suggested strategies include short - term long - position building for the 12 - month CBOT corn on dips, waiting and seeing for the 01 - month contract, and waiting for dips for the 05 and 07 - month contracts; narrowing the 01 - month corn - starch spread [36] - **Hogs**: The overall supply pressure exists, and the pig price is expected to face pressure. Suggested strategies include short - position building; selling wide - straddle options [39] - **Peanuts**: The spot price is strong, but the short - term is still in the bottom - side oscillation. Suggested strategies include long - position building for the 05 - month contract on dips; 15 - month peanut reverse arbitrage; selling pk601 - P - 7600 options [41] - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the egg price is stable with a slight decline. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing [48] - **Apples**: The new - season apple inventory is announced, and the price is stable with a slight increase. The supply is relatively tight, and the price is expected to be strong. Suggested strategies include long - position building on dips [50] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamental contradiction is not significant, and the cotton price oscillates. The new - season cotton supply is large, and the demand is in the off - season. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing [54] Group 3: Black Metals - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The steel price is in the range - side oscillation, and the double - coking coal has support at the bottom, while the iron ore is considered from a bearish perspective [59][62][64] - Summary of Related Catalogs: - **Steel**: The steel production resumes, and the steel price is in the range - side oscillation. The supply - demand structure suppresses the steel price, but the cost has support. Suggested strategies include range - side oscillation; long - position building on the coil - rebar spread; waiting and seeing [59] - **Double - Coking Coal**: The bottom has support, and the short - term drive is not obvious. The mid - term may have opportunities for long - position building on dips. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing in the short - term; holding the coking coal 1/5 reverse arbitrage; waiting and seeing [62] - **Iron Ore**: The market is in a weak state. The supply is high in the fourth quarter, and the demand is weak. Suggested strategies include a bearish approach [64] - **Ferroalloys**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price oscillates in the range with cost support. Suggested strategies include bottom - side oscillation; selling out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [67] Group 4: Non - ferrous Metals - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Different non - ferrous metals have different trends, including price fluctuations, supply - demand changes, etc. [70][73][77] - Summary of Related Catalogs: - **Precious Metals**: The Fed issued hawkish signals, and the precious metals tumbled. The market will focus on US non - farm data and NVIDIA's performance. Suggested strategies include temporary exit and waiting and seeing [70] - **Copper**: The short - term oscillates. The Fed's hawkish remarks and supply - demand factors affect the price. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing; long - position building at low levels in the long - term [73] - **Alumina**: Pay attention to the implementation of production cuts and beware of the selling pressure driven by the basis. The supply is in surplus, and the price may oscillate at the bottom before production cuts expand. Suggested strategies include short - term bottom - side oscillation; waiting and seeing [77] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Pay attention to this week's economic data, and the fundamentals are still strong. Suggested strategies include realizing profits gradually and maintaining a mid - term bullish view on dips [81] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The alloy price mainly follows the aluminum price. The cost provides support, but the market trading activity has declined. [87] - **Zinc**: It oscillates in a wide range. The domestic mine is tight, and the price may be affected by macro factors. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing; holding the SHFE long - LME short arbitrage [92] - **Lead**: It oscillates in the range. The domestic social inventory is increasing, and the price has limited upward momentum. Suggested strategies include partial profit - taking on short positions; selling out - of - the - money call options [94] - **Nickel**: The cost is loosening, and the price oscillates downward. The supply - demand surplus is obvious, and the cost support is weakened. Suggested strategies include short - position building on rebounds [97] - **Stainless Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the raw materials are under pressure. The inventory is increasing, and the price may continue to decline. [100] - **Industrial Silicon**: It oscillates weakly. The demand is weakening, and the price is in the range of (8500, 9400). Suggested strategies include short - position building on rebounds [102]

Core Insights - A significant power construction plan is underway in the U.S., with major tech companies advancing towards a scale of 10GW and millions of AI chips [1] - Capital expenditure (CapEx) is a key indicator for observing power investments, with over 80% of CapEx typically allocated to power procurement [1] - By 2026, the combined capital expenditure of the five major tech companies is projected to exceed $470 billion, indicating a conservative growth rate of at least 26% [1][2] Group 1: Capital Expenditure Trends - The total capital expenditure of the five major tech companies is expected to surpass $370 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 64% compared to $220.8 billion in 2024 [2] - Microsoft anticipates a capital expenditure of $937 billion for the fiscal year 2026, following a 45.1% increase in 2025 [10] - Amazon's capital expenditure is projected to be around $1.25 billion in 2025, with significant growth expected in 2026 [10][11] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The backlog of orders (remaining performance obligation, RPO) for the five major tech companies is growing at a rate that exceeds capital expenditure growth, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [5][16] - As of Q2 2025, the total RPO for these companies is estimated at $846 billion, with significant year-on-year growth [17] - Microsoft reported nearly $400 billion in backlog orders, with demand exceeding expectations [22] Group 3: AI Chip Demand - The projected capital expenditure will fund at least 16GW of power and over 3 million AI chips, with total new investment exceeding $160 billion [12][10] - Nvidia is a direct beneficiary of this trend, with 88% of its revenue coming from data center AI chips, primarily from these major tech companies [6][8] - The demand for AI chips is expected to continue growing, driven by the increasing need for computational power in AI applications [28] Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall power market is forming a positive cycle from upstream chip supply to downstream AI application demand [9] - Concerns about potential AI bubbles persist, but the consensus is that the current investments are necessary for future growth [24][31] - Major tech companies are prioritizing capital investments to ensure they meet the growing demand for AI capabilities, with a focus on long-term resource availability [32]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 8.331 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 54.43%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 698 million yuan, up 25.30% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved record-high performance with revenue of 3.387 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 86.43%, driven by rising market demand and rapid development of intelligent computing products and services [1] - The company is accelerating its investment in computing power and has submitted an application for H-share listing in Hong Kong to enhance its overseas financing capabilities [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 698 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 683 million yuan, both showing a year-on-year increase of over 25% [1] - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 266 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.44%, while the non-recurring net profit was 264 million yuan, up 36.86% [1] - Total assets reached 18.194 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, marking a 149.08% increase since the beginning of the year [1] Investment Strategy - The company plans to invest up to 4 billion yuan in server procurement, with total disclosed procurement investments reaching 12.2 billion yuan as of October 21, 2025 [2] - The company aims to optimize its overseas business layout and enhance its international capital operation platform through the upcoming H-share listing [2] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 11.932 billion yuan, 17.967 billion yuan, and 23.097 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 1.109 billion yuan, 2.131 billion yuan, and 2.892 billion yuan respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the third quarter of 2025, with revenue reaching 8.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 54.43%, and net profit of 698 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.30% [7] - The company is actively increasing its investment in computing power, which is expected to drive sustained high growth in performance [7] - The company has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its overseas financing capabilities [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported revenue of 4.66 billion yuan, with a projected revenue growth rate of 47.95% for 2023 [6] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 11.93 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.11 billion yuan, reflecting a net profit growth rate of 60.29% [6] - The company's total assets reached 18.19 billion yuan by the end of the third quarter of 2025, a 149.08% increase from the beginning of the year [7] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 11.93 billion yuan, 17.97 billion yuan, and 23.10 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - The projected net profits for the same years are 1.11 billion yuan, 2.13 billion yuan, and 2.89 billion yuan [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 3.20 yuan in 2025, increasing to 8.36 yuan by 2027 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting significant price appreciation in the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.121 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 294 million yuan, up 29.59% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2025 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 738 million yuan, a 14.80% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 106 million yuan, reflecting a 41.10% year-on-year growth, indicating strong profit growth [2]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2025 were 38.03% and 13.68%, respectively, showing improvements from the previous quarter [2]. - The global investment in computing power has accelerated, driving demand for gas turbines, with significant investments announced by major tech companies like NVIDIA and AMD [3][4]. - The company has seen a record high in contract liabilities at 206 million yuan by the end of Q3 2025, indicating strong future revenue potential from its core turbine blade business [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.121 billion yuan, up 11.02% year-on-year, and a net profit of 294 million yuan, up 29.59% year-on-year [2]. - Q3 2025 results showed a revenue of 738 million yuan, a 14.80% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 106 million yuan, a 41.10% increase year-on-year [2]. Operational Analysis - The global computing power investment has exceeded expectations, leading to increased demand for gas turbines, with major tech firms announcing substantial investments [3][4]. - The company, as a leading domestic turbine blade manufacturer, is positioned to benefit from the growing demand and has upgraded its partnership with Siemens Energy [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.2 billion yuan, 4.1 billion yuan, and 5.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 450 million yuan, 630 million yuan, and 890 million yuan for the same years [6]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 63, 45, and 31 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is leading to a significant transformation in productivity, resulting in widespread layoffs across various industries, particularly in technology companies, as they shift from human labor to computational power [1][9][22]. Group 1: Layoff Statistics - Major tech companies have announced substantial layoffs, including UPS (48,000 employees), Amazon (up to 30,000), Intel (24,000), and others, totaling over 200,000 job losses [5][7][22]. - The layoffs are not due to declining performance; companies like Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are still experiencing revenue growth and rising stock prices [8][22]. Group 2: Reasons for Layoffs - Tech giants are laying off employees to free up funds for purchasing GPUs, with the rationale that every 1% reduction in workforce can finance a batch of H100 chips [9][22]. - Traditional companies like UPS, Nestle, and Ford are also reducing staff, but their motivation stems from the successful implementation of AI tools that have improved efficiency, allowing them to operate with fewer employees [10][22]. Group 3: AI's Impact on Employment - The shift from human labor to AI-driven solutions is evident, as companies are increasingly relying on AI for tasks such as customer service automation and supply chain optimization [10][22]. - The current trend reflects a forced migration of budgets from human resources to computational investments, indicating a significant change in the labor market dynamics [9][22]. Group 4: Economic Rebalancing - The adoption rate of enterprise AI is currently at 10% and is projected to reach 50%, suggesting a rapid phase of wealth generation concentrated in computational resources rather than labor [21][23]. - The disparity between market capitalization growth and wage growth has reached unprecedented levels, indicating that this is not a recession but a rebalancing of economic resources, with most workers on the disadvantaged side [21][23].