股指期货周报：股指将再受考验 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号：F0211891 投资咨询证号：Z0000567 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 第二部分 周度数据追踪 5 周度核心要点及策略推荐 【综合分析】 【策略推荐】 GALAXY FUTURES 3 逻辑梳理：本周市场保持高位震荡，上证指数周五创下4034点十年新高后尾盘快速跳水。宽基指数高位震荡，仅上证50指 数出现周阳线，市场分化严重。指数的分化源自行业板块的表现，人工智能硬件——光模块、英伟达产业链、国产芯片等 纷纷跌幅居前，资金大举流出，这与美股科技龙头震荡，国产芯片龙头公布业绩后不涨反跌，日本存储公司季报远低预期 等有关。相反资金流向大消费板块，高低切换显示了避险需求。 后市展望：科技股在下周继续面临压力。中芯国际略超预期的季报并未能再动板块，反而受大市影响下跌；摩尔线程招股 使现有GPU的替代性加强，是否会有共振走强还有待观察；虽然美股科技龙头有止跌迹象，但周末华为的新技术将使投资 者对算力投资再度生疑。科技股震荡之下，股指难有集体表现，预计市场将再探支撑。 期货方面：本周基差先收敛再扩大，周三市场盘中调整见底、科技股反弹的情况 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 17 日 0 / 47 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：股指再受考验 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：单边暂缺驱动，关注移仓节奏 4 | | 豆粕：利多体现充分 | 盘面回落增加 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：巴西制糖比下降 | 国际糖价大涨 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂分化明显，震荡行情延续 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：玉米和淀粉: 现货继续上涨，盘面偏强震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力增加 | 现货继续回落 8 | | 花生：花生现货偏强，花生短期仍底部震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般蛋价稳中有落 10 | | | 苹果：新一期入库量公布 | 果价稳中有涨 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面矛盾不大 | 棉价震荡为主 12 | | 钢材：钢材出现复产，钢价区间震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：底部有支撑，等待新的驱动 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：供需双弱，成本支撑区间震荡 15 | | 贵金属：美联储再发鹰派信号 贵金属跳水 16 | | --- | | 铜 ...

Core Insights - A significant power construction plan is underway in the U.S., with major tech companies advancing towards a scale of 10GW and millions of AI chips [1] - Capital expenditure (CapEx) is a key indicator for observing power investments, with over 80% of CapEx typically allocated to power procurement [1] - By 2026, the combined capital expenditure of the five major tech companies is projected to exceed $470 billion, indicating a conservative growth rate of at least 26% [1][2] Group 1: Capital Expenditure Trends - The total capital expenditure of the five major tech companies is expected to surpass $370 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 64% compared to $220.8 billion in 2024 [2] - Microsoft anticipates a capital expenditure of $937 billion for the fiscal year 2026, following a 45.1% increase in 2025 [10] - Amazon's capital expenditure is projected to be around $1.25 billion in 2025, with significant growth expected in 2026 [10][11] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The backlog of orders (remaining performance obligation, RPO) for the five major tech companies is growing at a rate that exceeds capital expenditure growth, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [5][16] - As of Q2 2025, the total RPO for these companies is estimated at $846 billion, with significant year-on-year growth [17] - Microsoft reported nearly $400 billion in backlog orders, with demand exceeding expectations [22] Group 3: AI Chip Demand - The projected capital expenditure will fund at least 16GW of power and over 3 million AI chips, with total new investment exceeding $160 billion [12][10] - Nvidia is a direct beneficiary of this trend, with 88% of its revenue coming from data center AI chips, primarily from these major tech companies [6][8] - The demand for AI chips is expected to continue growing, driven by the increasing need for computational power in AI applications [28] Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall power market is forming a positive cycle from upstream chip supply to downstream AI application demand [9] - Concerns about potential AI bubbles persist, but the consensus is that the current investments are necessary for future growth [24][31] - Major tech companies are prioritizing capital investments to ensure they meet the growing demand for AI capabilities, with a focus on long-term resource availability [32]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 8.331 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 54.43%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 698 million yuan, up 25.30% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved record-high performance with revenue of 3.387 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 86.43%, driven by rising market demand and rapid development of intelligent computing products and services [1] - The company is accelerating its investment in computing power and has submitted an application for H-share listing in Hong Kong to enhance its overseas financing capabilities [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 698 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 683 million yuan, both showing a year-on-year increase of over 25% [1] - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 266 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.44%, while the non-recurring net profit was 264 million yuan, up 36.86% [1] - Total assets reached 18.194 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, marking a 149.08% increase since the beginning of the year [1] Investment Strategy - The company plans to invest up to 4 billion yuan in server procurement, with total disclosed procurement investments reaching 12.2 billion yuan as of October 21, 2025 [2] - The company aims to optimize its overseas business layout and enhance its international capital operation platform through the upcoming H-share listing [2] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 11.932 billion yuan, 17.967 billion yuan, and 23.097 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 1.109 billion yuan, 2.131 billion yuan, and 2.892 billion yuan respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the third quarter of 2025, with revenue reaching 8.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 54.43%, and net profit of 698 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.30% [7] - The company is actively increasing its investment in computing power, which is expected to drive sustained high growth in performance [7] - The company has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its overseas financing capabilities [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported revenue of 4.66 billion yuan, with a projected revenue growth rate of 47.95% for 2023 [6] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 11.93 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.11 billion yuan, reflecting a net profit growth rate of 60.29% [6] - The company's total assets reached 18.19 billion yuan by the end of the third quarter of 2025, a 149.08% increase from the beginning of the year [7] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 11.93 billion yuan, 17.97 billion yuan, and 23.10 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - The projected net profits for the same years are 1.11 billion yuan, 2.13 billion yuan, and 2.89 billion yuan [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 3.20 yuan in 2025, increasing to 8.36 yuan by 2027 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting significant price appreciation in the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.121 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 294 million yuan, up 29.59% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2025 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 738 million yuan, a 14.80% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 106 million yuan, reflecting a 41.10% year-on-year growth, indicating strong profit growth [2]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2025 were 38.03% and 13.68%, respectively, showing improvements from the previous quarter [2]. - The global investment in computing power has accelerated, driving demand for gas turbines, with significant investments announced by major tech companies like NVIDIA and AMD [3][4]. - The company has seen a record high in contract liabilities at 206 million yuan by the end of Q3 2025, indicating strong future revenue potential from its core turbine blade business [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.121 billion yuan, up 11.02% year-on-year, and a net profit of 294 million yuan, up 29.59% year-on-year [2]. - Q3 2025 results showed a revenue of 738 million yuan, a 14.80% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 106 million yuan, a 41.10% increase year-on-year [2]. Operational Analysis - The global computing power investment has exceeded expectations, leading to increased demand for gas turbines, with major tech firms announcing substantial investments [3][4]. - The company, as a leading domestic turbine blade manufacturer, is positioned to benefit from the growing demand and has upgraded its partnership with Siemens Energy [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.2 billion yuan, 4.1 billion yuan, and 5.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 450 million yuan, 630 million yuan, and 890 million yuan for the same years [6]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 63, 45, and 31 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is leading to a significant transformation in productivity, resulting in widespread layoffs across various industries, particularly in technology companies, as they shift from human labor to computational power [1][9][22]. Group 1: Layoff Statistics - Major tech companies have announced substantial layoffs, including UPS (48,000 employees), Amazon (up to 30,000), Intel (24,000), and others, totaling over 200,000 job losses [5][7][22]. - The layoffs are not due to declining performance; companies like Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are still experiencing revenue growth and rising stock prices [8][22]. Group 2: Reasons for Layoffs - Tech giants are laying off employees to free up funds for purchasing GPUs, with the rationale that every 1% reduction in workforce can finance a batch of H100 chips [9][22]. - Traditional companies like UPS, Nestle, and Ford are also reducing staff, but their motivation stems from the successful implementation of AI tools that have improved efficiency, allowing them to operate with fewer employees [10][22]. Group 3: AI's Impact on Employment - The shift from human labor to AI-driven solutions is evident, as companies are increasingly relying on AI for tasks such as customer service automation and supply chain optimization [10][22]. - The current trend reflects a forced migration of budgets from human resources to computational investments, indicating a significant change in the labor market dynamics [9][22]. Group 4: Economic Rebalancing - The adoption rate of enterprise AI is currently at 10% and is projected to reach 50%, suggesting a rapid phase of wealth generation concentrated in computational resources rather than labor [21][23]. - The disparity between market capitalization growth and wage growth has reached unprecedented levels, indicating that this is not a recession but a rebalancing of economic resources, with most workers on the disadvantaged side [21][23].

Core Insights - Several fund companies have disclosed their Q3 2025 reports, including two "doubling funds," namely China Europe Digital Economy Mixed Fund and Yongying Technology Select [1] Fund Performance - The China Europe Digital Economy Mixed Fund, managed by Feng Ludan, saw its scale surge from 1.527 billion to 13.022 billion, an increase of over 750% [3] - As of October 23, the fund's A share has a year-to-date return of 127% [3] - The top ten holdings of the fund include companies like NewEase, Alibaba-W, and Tencent Holdings [3] Investment Strategy - The fund maintains a high allocation and focuses on five core investment directions: AI infrastructure, intelligent robotics and autonomous driving, AI applications, edge AI, and the domestic AI industry chain [3] - Specific adjustments include a slight reduction in AI infrastructure, increased allocation to intelligent robotics, optimization of AI application portfolios, and enhanced allocation to edge AI [3] Market Outlook - The AI sector's overall valuation is no longer in a low range, with some popular stocks reflecting optimistic growth expectations for the coming years [4] - Investment opportunities and risks coexist, as the AI technology is in a phase of accelerated iteration and commercialization, with a high industry ceiling [4] Other Fund Performance - Yongying Technology Select Fund's scale expanded from 1.166 billion to 11.521 billion, nearly a ninefold increase in a single quarter [4] - As of October 23, the fund's A share has a year-to-date return exceeding 185% [4] - Key holdings include leading optical module stocks, with significant increases in positions for NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication [4] Future Trends - The global cloud computing industry remains a key focus, with AI model values being enhanced through various pricing strategies [5] - The investment in AI computing power is expected to rise, driven by new cloud companies and mutual investments between chip and model manufacturers [5] - The optical communication and PCB industries are anticipated to see significant technological advancements by 2027, with new products expected to enter the market [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer sector, recommending specific stocks such as Kingdee International, Kingsoft Office, Newland Digital Technology, Longshine Technology Group, Autel Intelligent Technology, and Hand Enterprise [3][7]. Core Insights - Oracle's disclosed order of $455 billion exceeded expectations, and Microsoft signed a five-year $17.4 billion computing power agreement with Nebius, indicating sustained high global computing power investment [3][8]. - NVIDIA launched the Rubin CPX, targeting long-context reasoning and video generation, highlighting a trend towards customized chips [3][9]. - The "AI+" initiative for energy high-quality development was released, promoting AI applications in smart grid construction [3][10]. Summary by Sections Global Computing Power Investment - Oracle's remaining performance obligations reached $455 billion, a year-on-year increase of 359%, with IaaS revenue at $3.3 billion, up 55% year-on-year [3][8]. - The outsourcing ratio for AI training and reasoning is increasing, indicating significant market space for non-self-built cloud computing [3][8]. NVIDIA's Rubin CPX - The Rubin CPX provides up to 30 PFLOPS computing power and is designed for high-bandwidth preprocessing and attention computation, achieving about three times the acceleration compared to previous models [3][9]. - The focus on custom chips is expected to enhance the marginal value of memory and bandwidth, benefiting high-end GDDR7 and high-speed interconnect solutions [3][9]. AI and Energy Development - The National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration released implementation opinions to promote AI in energy, enhancing the intelligence of disaster prevention and relief in power systems [3][10]. - Local software service providers with expertise in the power industry are expected to gain traction in orders due to the integration of AI technology [3][10].

Group 1 - The report highlights a divergence in market sentiment regarding the main overseas computing power chain, with some investors believing valuations are not expensive while others are concerned about short-term price increases and performance realization [2][8] - An observation angle is proposed, indicating that overseas computing power began to emerge from April to June, accelerating in July and August, which coincides with the disclosure of heavy holdings in fund quarterly reports [2][8] - The overseas computing power index, composed of 18 leading companies with a market capitalization of over 20 billion, recorded a 187% increase from the end of May to September 1, with a maximum drawdown of approximately 14.3% before recovering to previous highs [8][9] Group 2 - The report identifies a sample of 21 actively managed equity funds that increased their holdings in overseas computing power leaders by over 20% compared to the previous quarter, with a holding ratio greater than 40% [9][28] - The daily return volatility of the actively managed equity fund pool with heavy overseas computing power holdings increased after August 25, indicating potential internal divergences or reduced consistency among the leading companies in the overseas computing power chain [11][16] - In September, about one-third of the funds in the pool showed significant deviations from estimated theoretical returns, with actual returns exceeding theoretical returns, suggesting notable rebalancing behavior among certain funds [16][20]