计算机周观点第 18 期：甲骨文云计算订 单超预期，全球算力投资持续高景气 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.29 2025-09-29 [Table_Industry] 计算机 本报告导读： 甲骨文 4550 亿美元订单超预期，全球算力投资高景气；英伟达 Rubin CPX 专攻长上 下文推理和视频生成，定制化芯片成趋势；"人工智能+"赋能智慧电网。持续看好国 内算力链、数据中心各环节以及 AI 应用在各行业落地。 投资要点： 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 [table_Authors] [Table_Summary] 投资建议：甲骨文 4550 亿美元订单超预期，微软与 Nebius 达成五年 174 亿算力协议，全球算力投资维持高景气度；英伟达 Rubin CPX 面向 长上下文推理和视频生成，看好专用 GPU、ASIC 与配套的 CPO/PCB/存 储环节，"人工智能+"能源高质量发展的实施意见出台，AI 应用赋能智 慧电网建设。我们维持计算机板块"优于大市"评级，推荐标的：金蝶国 际、金山办公、新大陆、朗新集团、 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a divergence in market sentiment regarding the main overseas computing power chain, with some investors believing valuations are not expensive while others are concerned about short-term price increases and performance realization [2][8] - An observation angle is proposed, indicating that overseas computing power began to emerge from April to June, accelerating in July and August, which coincides with the disclosure of heavy holdings in fund quarterly reports [2][8] - The overseas computing power index, composed of 18 leading companies with a market capitalization of over 20 billion, recorded a 187% increase from the end of May to September 1, with a maximum drawdown of approximately 14.3% before recovering to previous highs [8][9] Group 2 - The report identifies a sample of 21 actively managed equity funds that increased their holdings in overseas computing power leaders by over 20% compared to the previous quarter, with a holding ratio greater than 40% [9][28] - The daily return volatility of the actively managed equity fund pool with heavy overseas computing power holdings increased after August 25, indicating potential internal divergences or reduced consistency among the leading companies in the overseas computing power chain [11][16] - In September, about one-third of the funds in the pool showed significant deviations from estimated theoretical returns, with actual returns exceeding theoretical returns, suggesting notable rebalancing behavior among certain funds [16][20]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the domestic AI computing power market and its growth, particularly in relation to Chinese companies and their advancements in AI chip technology [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Growing Demand for Domestic Computing Power**: There is a significant increase in demand for domestic AI applications, with major companies like ByteDance showing positive changes in multimodal video generation and other AI applications. Active user numbers and API call intensity are on the rise, indicating a sustained growth trend in domestic computing power demand [2][4]. - **Supply Chain Developments**: Domestic companies are increasingly adopting locally sourced supply chains for AI chips, which is expected to accelerate performance releases for related companies by 2026. The advancements in domestic manufacturing capabilities, including advanced process and packaging, are crucial for this trend [2][4]. - **New Chip Roadmaps**: Companies like Huawei have clear roadmaps for new chip releases, including the 950PR and 950DT in 2026 and the 960 chip in 2027, showcasing the continuous improvement in domestic chip capabilities [1][4]. - **Impact of Global Players**: The entry of OpenAI into the hardware market is significant, with plans to launch new products by 2026 and expectations of generating $50 billion in revenue by 2030. This move aims to retain user data, reduce cloud computing costs, and change human-computer interaction through new product forms like wearables and smart speakers [1][7][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Electronics Innovation**: The consumer electronics industry is expected to see a wave of innovation starting in 2025, with new products such as panoramic cameras, drones, and 3D printers emerging, driven by designer advantages and AI technology [1][11]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The domestic computing power sector is viewed positively for medium to long-term investments, with expectations of significant growth if supply chains are optimized and production capacities exceed expectations [4][5]. - **End-Side AI Hardware**: The end-side AI hardware market is gaining traction, with Meta's influence and improved sales of products like the iPhone 17 contributing to a favorable investment outlook [6][10]. - **Market Growth Projections**: The AI PCD market is projected to reach $7 billion by 2027, representing a 142% increase from 2026. This growth is driven by new technologies from companies like NVIDIA, which also presents investment opportunities for domestic hardware companies [3][15]. Conclusion - The domestic AI computing power market is poised for significant growth, driven by increasing demand from major companies, advancements in local chip manufacturing, and the entry of global players into the hardware space. The consumer electronics sector is also expected to innovate rapidly, creating further investment opportunities in the coming years [1][4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer sector [6]. Core Insights - Oracle's $455 billion order exceeded expectations, indicating a high level of global computing investment; Microsoft has also reached a five-year $17.4 billion computing agreement with Nebius [2][6]. - NVIDIA's launch of the Rubin CPX targets long-context reasoning and video generation, highlighting the trend towards customized chips [4][6]. - The implementation of "AI+" in energy development is expected to enhance smart grid construction [7]. Summary by Sections Oracle's Performance - Oracle reported a remaining performance obligation of $455 billion, a year-on-year increase of 359%, with IaaS revenue at $3.3 billion, up 55% year-on-year [6]. - The company has signed large-scale cloud contracts with AI firms like OpenAI, positioning itself as a key infrastructure provider for AI training [6]. NVIDIA's Innovations - NVIDIA's Rubin CPX offers up to 30 PFLOPS of computing power at NVFP4 precision, with 128GB GDDR7, achieving approximately three times the acceleration in attention calculations compared to previous models [4]. - The focus on customized chips is expected to enhance the marginal value of high-end GDDR7 and high-speed interconnect solutions [4]. AI in Energy Sector - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued guidelines to promote "AI+" in energy, aiming to improve smart grid management and disaster response capabilities [7]. - Local software service providers with expertise in power industry applications are anticipated to gain orders as AI technologies are integrated into the sector [7]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends stocks such as Kingdee International, Kingsoft Office, Newland, Longxin Group, Daotong Technology, and Hand Information, with a focus on companies that have long-term contract fulfillment certainty [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The digital economy theme index (931582) is experiencing strong growth, with significant increases in component stocks and a positive outlook for AI and computing power investments [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 5, 2025, the digital economy theme index (931582) rose by 1.10%, with notable gains in stocks such as Kebo Da (603786) reaching a 10% limit up, and Junsheng Electronics (600699) increasing by 9.29% [1] - The digital economy ETF (560800) also saw an increase of 1.22%, with the latest price reported at 0.91 yuan [1] - The trading volume for the digital economy ETF was 2.2% during the session, with a total transaction value of 15.58 million yuan [1] Group 2: Investment Insights - According to CITIC Securities, the current AI user penetration rate is still low, and the development of large models is in the early to mid-stages, indicating that the industrialization cycle is just beginning [1] - The capital expenditure related to computing power investments is expected to grow alongside the revenue from large models, suggesting a high potential investment ceiling [1] - Shen Gang Securities believes that with ongoing investments in computing power infrastructure, domestic computing capabilities in model and chip sectors are likely to continue to break through, maintaining a favorable market outlook [1] Group 3: Index Composition - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the digital economy theme index (931582) include Dongfang Fortune (300059), Cambrian (688256), and SMIC (688981), collectively accounting for 53.36% of the index [2]

Group 1: Currency and Interest Rate Outlook - Goldman Sachs expects that a weaker dollar will drive strong performance in emerging market currency carry trades, with a positive outlook for the Indian Rupee, Brazilian Real, South African Rand, and Hungarian Forint as carry trade longs [1] - Barclays economists note a slowdown in UK core services inflation, suggesting a potential for a rate cut by the Bank of England in November [2] - Macro analysts from Capital Economics highlight that U.S. short-term interest rates face upward risks, indicating that the market may be overestimating the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] Group 2: Economic and Market Trends - Societe Generale analysts predict a gradual weakening of the British Pound due to a bleak fiscal outlook, with expectations of higher taxes and slower economic growth [3] - Societe Generale also indicates that the implied volatility of the Euro against the Dollar may soon rebound due to upcoming events that could lead to greater exchange rate fluctuations [4] - China International Capital Corporation forecasts that the global AI liquid cooling market will reach $8.6 billion by 2026, driven by increasing computational demands and the advantages of liquid cooling technology [5] Group 3: Commodity and Investment Insights - Huatai Securities anticipates a cyclical upward opportunity for cobalt prices between 2025 and 2027, driven by an improving supply-demand balance [6] - Huatai Securities reports that A-share market activity remains high, with significant contributions expected from foreign and insurance capital in the future [6] - CITIC Securities believes that leading brands in the ready-to-drink beverage sector, which possess product innovation and offline traffic capabilities, are likely to navigate through economic cycles successfully [7]

Group 1 - The current user penetration rate of AI large models is still low, indicating that the development of large models is in the early to mid-stage [1] - The industrial application cycle of large models has just begun, leading to significant investments in computing power [1] - Capital expenditures are expected to grow alongside the revenue from large models, suggesting a high potential ceiling for investments [1] Group 2 - Both the North American and domestic supply chains for computing infrastructure are worthy of attention [1]

Group 1 - A-shares opened collectively higher on August 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.05%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.01% [1] - Sectors such as forestry, gas, and batteries showed significant gains [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights that competition and iteration in AI large models continue, indicating sustained high levels of investment in computing power [2] - The performance forecast from computing power chain companies shows rapid growth, confirming the high prosperity of the AI-driven computing power industry [2] - Recommendations include focusing on North American computing power chain core stocks with sustained high growth and low historical valuations, companies likely to benefit from external demand, and upstream segments facing shortages [2] Group 3 - Tianfeng Securities notes that the demand for spandex has been growing rapidly, with current prices at relatively low levels [3] - The industry is experiencing an average loss, with profitability at historical lows, while new capacity investments are being delayed or reduced [3] - From 2005 to 2024, spandex consumption in China is projected to grow from 121,000 tons to 1,027,000 tons, with a CAGR of 11.9% [3] Group 4 - Huatai Securities emphasizes positive policy expectations, particularly regarding the implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies [4] - The subsidy policy involves a 1% annual interest subsidy, with central and provincial finances covering 90% and 10% of the subsidy funds, respectively [4] - Major banks are actively responding to the personal consumption loan subsidy policy, which is expected to enhance interest margins and stimulate credit issuance [4]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the high point from October 8 last year, reaching a nearly four-year high, with a closing increase of 0.48% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 269.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, marking a return to above 2 trillion yuan after 114 trading days [1] - The sectors that performed well included non-ferrous metals, PEEK materials, CPO, and photolithography machines, while coal, banking, ports, and logistics sectors saw declines [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 3.62% [1] AI Computing Power Sector - CITIC Securities noted that the competition and iteration of AI large models are ongoing, indicating that investment in computing power is likely to remain strong [2] - Companies in the computing power chain have reported rapid growth, confirming the high prosperity of the AI-driven computing power industry [2] - Recommendations include focusing on North American computing power chain core targets with sustained high growth and low historical valuations, companies likely to benefit from external demand, and upstream segments facing shortages [2] - Attention is also drawn to the 1.6T optical module and CPO industry chain as GB300 begins mass shipments, and the introduction of new GPUs by NV in China as H20 supply recovers [2] Spandex Industry - Tianfeng Securities highlighted that the spandex supply in China is highly concentrated, with current prices at relatively low levels [3] - The industry is experiencing an average loss, with profitability at historical lows, and new capacity investments are being delayed or reduced [3] - Spandex demand has been growing rapidly, with consumption projected to increase from 121,000 tons in 2005 to 1,027,000 tons by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 11.9% from 2005 to 2024 [3] - Companies positioned on the left side of the cost curve are recommended for focus amid the "anti-involution" trend [3] Banking Sector - Huatai Securities pointed out that recent policies from the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and financial regulators aim to support personal consumption loans with a subsidy policy [4] - The annual subsidy rate is set at 1%, with the central and provincial finances covering 90% and 10% of the subsidy funds, respectively, which helps protect interest margins and stimulate credit issuance [4] - Major banks such as ICBC, ABC, CCB, and BOC have actively responded to the personal consumption loan subsidy policy since August [4] - The positive policy outlook suggests structural opportunities within the banking sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reports that the computing power chain sector is experiencing rapid growth, driven by the ongoing demand from AI, indicating a high level of industry prosperity [1] Group 1: Performance and Growth - The computing power chain company has released a performance forecast showing significant growth [1] - The AI-driven computing power industry continues to demonstrate strong demand, suggesting sustained investment opportunities [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends focusing on North American computing power chain core stocks that are experiencing continuous high growth while still being valued at historically low levels [1] - Companies that are likely to benefit from spillover demand and achieve customer or market share breakthroughs are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [1] - Attention is drawn to upstream segments that are currently in short supply, indicating potential for growth [1] Group 3: Product and Supply Chain Focus - With the bulk shipment of GB300, there is a recommendation to closely monitor the 1.6T optical module and CPO industry chain [1] - As H20 supply recovers, the introduction of new GPUs by NV to the Chinese market is noted, suggesting a focus on domestic computing power chains [1]