GLP - 1 管线

Search documents
博瑞医药(688166):1管线加速推进,创新转型加码
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-09-11 11:10
Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [6][13]. Core Views - The company's existing business is under pressure, but the innovation pipeline is accelerating, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook [2][13]. - The revenue for the first half of 2025 is reported at 537 million yuan, a decrease of 18.28% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 17 million yuan, down 83.85% [13]. - The decline in performance is primarily due to reduced demand and pricing for the antiviral product Oseltamivir, alongside increased R&D investments [13]. - R&D expenditure reached 348 million yuan, representing a 144.07% increase, accounting for 64.83% of revenue [13]. - The target price has been adjusted to 114.70 yuan based on a 33X PS for 2026, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's innovation pipeline [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 1,180 million, 1,283 million, 1,283 million, 1,470 million, and 1,756 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 15.9%, 8.7%, 0.0%, 14.6%, and 19.4% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline from 202 million yuan in 2023A to 69 million yuan in 2025E, before recovering to 179 million yuan by 2027E [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decrease to 0.16 yuan in 2025E, with a gradual recovery to 0.42 yuan by 2027E [4]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is reported at 38,620 million yuan, with a total share capital of 423 million shares [7]. - The stock price has fluctuated between 23.00 and 116.49 yuan over the past 52 weeks [7]. Innovation Pipeline - The company is advancing its innovation pipeline, with several clinical trials underway for diabetes and weight loss treatments [13]. - The BGM0504 injection for type 2 diabetes has completed all patient enrollments for domestic Phase III clinical trials, and the weight loss indication has initiated bridging studies in the US [13]. - The company has established a partnership with China Resources Sanjiu for the commercialization of BGM0504 in the Greater China region [13].