Key Points Viking Therapeutics is nearing the finish line with a candidate for weight loss -- to potentially enter a drug market that’s approaching $100 billion. This biotech has candidates in phase 2 and phase 3 trials, and data so far are promising. 10 stocks we like better than Viking Therapeutics › Viking Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VKTX) soared to the forefront almost two years ago when it announced data on an investigational drug to serve an area of high need: weight loss. The biotech's candidate me ...

Industry Overview - The weight loss drug market is projected to grow from an estimated $15 billion last year to as much as $150 billion by 2035, indicating a tenfold increase over the next decade [1][2] - Current medications primarily consist of GLP-1 agonists, which suppress appetite by slowing digestion [2] Market Leaders - Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly dominate the weight loss drug market, holding an estimated 97% market share, with Novo Nordisk at 62% and Eli Lilly at 35% of the GLP-1 market [2][4] - Both companies are actively developing next-generation products to maintain their market positions [8] Drug Development Challenges - Drug development is a rigorous process, and many candidates may fail to reach the market, as evidenced by Pfizer's abandonment of its oral weight loss drug due to safety concerns [5] - Newly approved drugs must compete not only on price but also on efficacy, side effects, and prescriber comfort [6] Upcoming Products - Novo Nordisk is seeking approval for an oral version of Wegovy, with hopes for a decision by the end of the year, and is also advancing CagriSema through phase 3 trials [9] - Eli Lilly's orforglipron has shown promising results in phase 3 studies and could be the first small-molecule weight loss drug on the market, while its injectable therapy retatrutide is also in phase 3 trials [10] Competitive Landscape - Boehringer Ingelheim's survodutide is noted as a potential near-term competitor, with an expected arrival in 2027 [11] - Other competitors, such as Amgen's MariTide, are still in earlier stages of development, with phase 3 studies beginning in March and a potential market entry in 2028 [11] Investment Considerations - Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are well-positioned to capture significant growth in the weight loss market, with Eli Lilly currently favored by Wall Street, reflected in its higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 62 compared to Novo Nordisk's 22 [12] - The expected long-term earnings growth rates are 14% for Novo Nordisk and 32% for Eli Lilly, with PEG ratios of 1.5 and 1.9 respectively, indicating reasonable pricing for their growth prospects [13]

Core Insights - Novo Nordisk has established a strong position in the weight loss drug market with its semaglutide products, Ozempic and Wegovy, but faces increasing competition as the market grows significantly [1][4] - The weight loss market is projected to expand from approximately $15 billion last year to around $150 billion by 2035, attracting numerous competitors [4] - Novo Nordisk currently holds an estimated 62% market share in the GLP-1 agonist segment, while Eli Lilly has about 35% [5] Competition Landscape - Multiple next-generation weight loss drugs are in clinical testing, raising concerns about Novo Nordisk's market dominance [2][6] - Eli Lilly's orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 agonist, has shown promising results in phase 3 trials, indicating a shift towards more convenient oral medications [7] - The drug development process is challenging, with many candidates failing to reach the market, which may benefit established players like Novo Nordisk [9] Market Dynamics - Factors influencing patient choice include efficacy, price, and side effects, making it premature to predict the outcome of the competitive landscape [10] - Despite fears of losing market share, Novo Nordisk's stock has already adjusted to lower growth expectations, trading at a P/E ratio of 20, down from 50 [11][13] - The current PEG ratio of 1.4 suggests that Novo Nordisk remains an attractive investment opportunity in a high-growth sector [14] Long-term Outlook - Novo Nordisk is recognized as a proven industry leader, and its stock may present a favorable opportunity for long-term investors, barring significant setbacks [15]

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk A/S is undergoing a leadership transition with CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen stepping down, which has led to a 2.7% decline in the company's shares. The leadership change is seen as a response to recent market challenges and a significant drop in share price since mid-2024 [1][4]. Leadership Changes - Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen will remain in a transitional role to ensure a smooth handover to new leadership, with a successor currently being sought [2]. - Lars Rebien Sørensen, former CEO and current Chair of the Novo Nordisk Foundation, will join the board as an observer and is expected to be nominated for election at the Annual General Meeting in 2026 [2]. Market Performance - Novo Nordisk's shares have decreased by 25.2% year-to-date, compared to a 5.2% decline in the industry, prompting discussions about leadership change [4]. - Despite the leadership change, the company's stock price has seen a 10.4% increase over the past month, attributed to pipeline developments and a recent $2.2 billion collaboration deal with Septerna [9]. Product Success and Competition - The success of Novo Nordisk during Jørgensen's tenure is largely due to the popularity of its semaglutide products, including Ozempic and Wegovy, which have captured a dominant market share [3]. - The company faces significant competition from Eli Lilly and other firms developing GLP-1-based therapies, which could impact its market position [6][8]. Strategic Developments - Novo Nordisk is actively working on diversifying its product offerings beyond injectable GLP-1 products, with the FDA reviewing a regulatory application for oral semaglutide [10]. - CVS Caremark has made Wegovy its preferred GLP-1 therapy for weight loss, and partnerships with telehealth providers are expected to enhance commercial advantages [11].

Core Insights - Novo Nordisk (NVO) has entered a partnership with Septerna (SEPN) valued at up to $2.2 billion to target the obesity treatment market [1][3] - Following the announcement, SEPN shares surged by 51%, while NVO shares increased by 1.6%, highlighting investor interest in healthcare ETFs [2] Partnership Details - The collaboration focuses on developing oral small-molecule treatments that target G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) for obesity, type 2 diabetes, and other cardiometabolic diseases [3] - The deal includes over $200 million in upfront and near-term payments to Septerna [3] Market Strategy - This partnership is part of Novo Nordisk's strategy to enhance its position in the competitive obesity treatment market, which is seen as a key area for weight-loss drug development [4] - Novo Nordisk is awaiting FDA approval for an oral version of its leading injectable treatment, Wegovy, with a decision expected by the end of the year [4] - The company is also facing competition from Eli Lilly's Zepbound, prompting a $1.75 billion acquisition of Lexicon Pharmaceuticals for an experimental oral obesity treatment [4] ETFs in Focus - **Roundhill GLP-1 & Weight Loss ETF (OZEM)**: The first GLP-1 ETF, actively managed, with NVO holding a 19.8% share. It has $34.7 million in assets and charges 59 bps in fees [5] - **Amplify Weight Loss Drug & Treatment ETF (THNR)**: Focuses on global companies in GLP-1 agonist manufacturing, with Eli Lilly at 13.2% share. It has $2.8 million in assets and charges 59 bps in fees [6] - **Trenchless Fund ETF (RVER)**: Actively managed fund with NVO at 6.3% share, $73.5 million in assets, and 65 bps in fees [7] - **VanEck Vectors Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH)**: Follows the MVIS US Listed Pharmaceutical 25 Index, with NVO among the top 10 holdings at 4.7%. It has $611.7 million in assets and charges 0.36% in fees [8][9]