Core Insights - Urban demand in India is showing signs of recovery after nearly two years of rural consumption leading the way, driven by improving corporate salary growth, selective hiring, and fiscal support through tax and GST cuts [1][3][8] Urban Consumption - Urban households are facing significant cost pressures, with inflation affecting essential expenses such as school fees, rent, and utilities, which have risen sharply [2] - Urban consumption began to improve in Q3 FY26, supported by GST cuts and an increase in urban wage growth, which rose to 7% in H1 FY26 from 3% in Q4 FY25 [3][4] - Salary growth among large listed companies improved to approximately 6.4% in the first half of FY26, indicating a positive shift in momentum for urban consumption [4] - Job creation in urban areas is improving, particularly at mid and senior levels, although entry-level hiring remains challenging due to AI adoption [5] Rural Consumption - Rural demand, which previously led the recovery, is facing potential moderation due to falling crop prices below MSP levels, impacting farm incomes [6][8] - Despite these risks, rural consumption has remained strong, with rural wage growth picking up and high-frequency indicators showing resilience [6][7] - Agriculture accounts for about 40-45% of total rural income, with allied sectors like construction and services expected to perform well [7] Overall Economic Outlook - Economists agree that India's consumption recovery is entering a new phase, with urban demand showing early signs of revival while rural consumption remains resilient but faces risks from soft crop prices [8]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has room to cut rates by 25-50 basis points due to a comfortable inflation trajectory, but is not expected to do so in the current cycle given strong Q1 GDP numbers and recent consumption boosts from GST cuts [1][6] - CPI-based inflation rose to 2.07% in August from July's eight-year-low of 1.61%, entering the RBI's medium-term target of 2-6% [1][6] - Economists expect inflation to ease further due to GST rate cuts effective from September 22, with CPI for FY26 likely lower than the RBI's estimate of 3.1% [6] Group 2 - Retail inflation for September is currently tracking at approximately 1.75%, with October potentially going below 1% due to GST cuts and base effects [6] - Growth momentum is expected to slow in H2 FY26 as support from transient factors wanes and the impact of tariffs becomes more visible [6] - There are downside risks to inflation that may leave scope for another repo rate cut in the October-December period, although this was priced out by the market after a strong GDP print [6]