Accessible version InnoScience Technology Global GaN power semi leader, well- positioned for rapid growth; initiate at Buy Initiating Coverage: BUY | PO: 108.00 HKD | Price: 74.40 HKD Initiate at Buy, PO of HK$108 (45% upside potential) We initiate coverage on InnoScience at Buy with a PO of HK$108. InnoScience is a Gallium Nitride (GaN) power semiconductor leader with largest market share of 30% (by revenue) globally in 2024. We are positive on its long-term growth outlook, given (1) rapid growth of global ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q4 2025 was $261.2 million, with adjusted EPS at $0.94 per diluted share. For the full year, FY25 revenue reached $967 million, representing a more than 32% increase year over year, and EPS was $3.47, up more than 35% year over year [4][24][29] - Free cash flow generated was $193 million, with cash and short-term investments totaling approximately $786 million at year-end [4][32] - The adjusted operating margin for FY25 grew by 140 basis points to 25.4%, and cash flow from operations increased by 45% to $235.4 million [24][32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 revenue performance by end market included industrial and defense at $115.6 million, telecom at $66 million, and data center at $79.6 million. Industrial and defense revenues were up approximately 7% sequentially, and data center revenues were up approximately 5% sequentially [5][25] - The company launched over 200 new products in FY25, which contributed to revenue growth and improved gross margins [6][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. domestic customers represented approximately 43% of Q4 revenue, with full fiscal year 2025 U.S.-based revenue at approximately 44% [25] - The defense market saw over 50% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by high-power GaN components [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve $1 billion in annual revenues, with a focus on technology and product differentiation, particularly in high-frequency and high-power IC products [6][7] - Plans to open two additional IC design centers to enhance R&D capabilities and expand market share [8] - The strategic agreement with HRL to license the T3L process is expected to enhance MACOM's capabilities in high-frequency applications and capture significant market share [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving revenue growth in FY2026, driven by data center demand and improvements in telecom and defense sectors [34][41] - The company anticipates continued growth in the LEO satellite market, with potential revenues in the hundreds of millions of dollars [42][43] - Management highlighted strong October bookings as a positive indicator for the start of FY2026 [41] Other Important Information - The company expects Q1 FY2026 revenue to be in the range of $265-$273 million, with adjusted gross margin anticipated between $56.5-$58.5 million [33][34] - Capital expenditures for FY2026 are estimated to be $50-$55 million, focusing on upgrading production equipment and expanding capacity [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on telecom business outlook - Management identified 5G growth and satellite communications as key drivers for the telecom business in FY2026 [36] Question: Demand trends between 100G and 200G solutions - The 100G business is stable, while significant growth is expected in the 200G segment, particularly for 1.6T applications [37] Question: Update on HRL IP license agreement - The HRL technology complements existing processes and is expected to enhance capabilities in high-frequency SATCOM applications [39] Question: Factors driving growth in FY2026 - Growth is primarily driven by the rollout of 1.6T and 800G platforms, along with a recovery in telecom and strength in defense [41] Question: Size of the LEO satellite market - The LEO business is expected to grow significantly over the next 12-18 months, potentially reaching hundreds of millions in revenue [42][43] Question: Competitive landscape post-merger of competitors - Management does not anticipate significant changes in the competitive landscape due to the merger, as it does not directly impact MACOM [57]

Core Insights - Veeco Instruments Inc. has received an order for a Propel®300 system from a major power semiconductor integrated device manufacturer for gallium nitride (GaN) epitaxy on 300mm silicon wafers, reinforcing its leadership in 300mm MOCVD technology [1][2] Industry Growth - The GaN device market is projected to grow at a 35% CAGR, increasing from $555 million in 2025 to $2.5 billion by 2030, driven by the demand for power efficiency in automotive, industrial, and data center applications [2] Technology Advancements - The Propel®300 system features Veeco's MOCVD TurboDisc technology, offering exceptional performance, automated wafer handling, and low cost of ownership per wafer due to its high productivity and low defectivity [3] Company Overview - Veeco is a manufacturer of semiconductor process equipment, specializing in technologies such as laser annealing, ion beam, and MOCVD, which are essential for the fabrication and packaging of advanced semiconductor devices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company recognizes the research and development capabilities of Innoscience in the GaN field, as well as its supply capacity from the world's largest 8-inch silicon-based GaN wafer factory, indicating a positive outlook for collaboration in multiple areas [1] Group 1 - The company acknowledges Innoscience's R&D capabilities in GaN technology [1] - The collaboration between the two companies is progressing in an orderly manner across various fields [1] - Innoscience operates the largest 8-inch silicon-based GaN wafer factory globally, enhancing its supply capabilities [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q2 2025 increased by 9% year-over-year to $116 million, with a non-GAAP EPS of $0.35 [22][24] - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q2 was 55.8%, down 10 basis points from the prior quarter due to higher input costs [23][24] - Cash flow from operations was $29 million, with $44 million returned to stockholders through buybacks and dividends [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Industrial segment revenue rose nearly 30% sequentially, driven by strength in metering and high power applications [22][24] - Consumer revenues decreased mid-single digits sequentially, primarily due to a decline in major appliances [22][24] - Communication revenues increased over 20% sequentially, mainly due to seasonal trends in cell phones [22][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a slowdown in bookings in July, with bookings nearly 20% below the normal run rate [32][34] - The appliance business faced challenges due to tariffs and inventory adjustments, impacting demand in the second half of the year [20][34] - The metering business is expected to grow over 20% this year, with new design wins in Japan and Europe [12][13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The new CEO emphasized the goal of achieving a billion dollars in revenue by leveraging existing technologies and entering higher power markets [10][14] - The company is focusing on GaN technology to drive growth in data centers, automotive, and renewable energy applications [15][18] - There is a commitment to improving R&D efficiency to support double-digit growth in the long term [38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding the near-term outlook due to customer hesitance around tariffs, impacting the appliance segment [20][21] - Despite short-term headwinds, the company remains optimistic about long-term growth opportunities in emerging markets and efficiency standards [14][20] - The company expects Q3 revenue to be in the range of $118 million, reflecting continued strength in industrial and GaN products [27] Other Important Information - The company repurchased over 700,000 shares during the quarter at an average price of about $46, with $42 million remaining on the repurchase authorization [26] - The transition to a new CEO is expected to be seamless, with the former CEO remaining involved in a consulting role [6][7] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the company view guidance in light of market dynamics? - Management noted a slowdown in bookings in July, leading to cautious guidance for the upcoming quarter [32][34] Question: What is the strategy moving forward under new leadership? - The new CEO highlighted the need for improved R&D efficiency and aligning product development with market needs [38] Question: How are different segments performing in the current environment? - Industrial segment remains strong, while consumer segment faces challenges due to appliance issues [46][48] Question: What is the impact of TSMC's exit from the GaN foundry business? - Management believes this validates their strategy and positions them well against competitors [62][65] Question: What are the expectations for channel inventory in the second half? - Channel inventory is expected to remain tight, with a cautious approach due to tariff impacts [89][90]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Infineon Technologies AG is Overweight, with a price target of €38.00, while the stock closed at €36.21 on July 2, 2025 [4]. Core Insights - TSMC's decision to exit GaN/Silicon production by July 2027 indicates a strategic shift, prompting Navitas to transition to Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (PSMC) for GaN/Si wafer production, with initial mass production expected in the first half of 2026 [2][3]. - Infineon may benefit from potential strategic partnerships for GaN production, as other GaN device makers might seek to utilize Infineon's 300mm facility or process IP [3][7]. - The exit of TSMC could lead to pricing pressure on Infineon due to lower barriers to entry at PSMC, similar to trends observed in the SiC market [3][7]. - Infineon holds a significant intellectual property portfolio in GaN/Si, with 350 patent families, which may provide a competitive advantage [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - TSMC's exit from GaN/Si production is a significant development in the semiconductor industry, particularly affecting companies like Infineon and Navitas [2][7]. Company Specifics - Infineon Technologies AG has a market capitalization of €47.13 billion and a net debt of €3.506 billion as of September 2025 [4]. - The company is expected to navigate potential challenges in reliability testing for GaN devices, which may need to be developed in-house following TSMC's exit [3][7]. Financial Metrics - The valuation methodology applied to Infineon is based on an 18x multiple of the FY26 EPS of €2.10, reflecting expectations of a cyclical recovery in FY26 [9].

Core Insights - Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) is a significant player in the next generation of power semiconductors, particularly in GaN technologies, which are driving innovation and growth in the semiconductor market [1][2] - The GaN semiconductor device market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6.1% from 2023 to 2028, attracting investments from major tech firms like NVIDIA and Tesla [1] - Navitas' GaN business revenues increased over 50% year-over-year in 2024, indicating strong momentum across various high-growth markets [3][8] Company Performance - Navitas has achieved over 180 GaN charger design wins in 2024 and supplies all top 10 global smartphone manufacturers, showcasing its strong position in the Mobile & Consumer segment [3][8] - The company is expanding into emerging markets through strategic partnerships, such as with Transsion in Africa and Jio in India [3] - In the Electric Vehicle sector, Navitas secured its first design win with Changan Auto for an onboard charger, featuring 6kW/L power density and 96% efficiency [4] Product Development - Navitas is set to launch new 80 - 120V GaN devices in 2025, targeting the 48V DC-DC converter market [4] - The company introduced bidirectional GaN ICs for solar applications, with the first use case expected in solar microinverters by late 2025 [4] Competitive Landscape - Power Integrations' GaN business is also experiencing growth, contributing to a 15% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 2025, with a focus on high-voltage applications [5] - STMicroelectronics is expanding its GaN technology through a partnership with Innoscience to accelerate development and manufacturing [6] Stock Performance - Year-to-date, Navitas' stock has surged 79.3%, outperforming the industry and S&P 500 growth rates of 13.4% and 5.4%, respectively [7] - The stock trades at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 15.0X, significantly higher than the industry average of 7.5X [9] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NVTS' loss per share has decreased over the past 60 days, indicating a potential shift in financial outlook [10]

Core Insights - STMicroelectronics and Innoscience have signed a joint development agreement focused on GaN technology to enhance power solutions and supply chain resilience [1][2] - The collaboration aims to advance GaN power technology for various applications including consumer electronics, datacenters, automotive, and industrial power systems [2][4] - Innoscience will utilize ST's manufacturing capacity outside China for GaN wafers, while ST will leverage Innoscience's capacity in China for its own GaN wafers [2][7] Company Overview - STMicroelectronics is a global semiconductor leader with a workforce of 50,000, serving over 200,000 customers and focusing on sustainable technology solutions [5] - Innoscience is recognized as the global leader in gallium nitride process innovation and has shipped over 1 billion GaN devices across multiple markets [3][8] - Both companies are committed to improving efficiency and reducing carbon footprints through advanced GaN technology [3][4] Technology and Market Impact - GaN power devices are known for their lower losses, enhanced efficiency, and reduced size and weight, making them suitable for next-generation applications [4] - The partnership is expected to accelerate the adoption of GaN technology, particularly in sectors like renewable energy, AI datacenters, and electric vehicles [4][7] - Innoscience holds 800 patents related to GaN technology, indicating a strong position in the market for reliable and high-performance power devices [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 revenues were $105 million, up 18% year over year, but down 9% sequentially [21] - Full year revenues were $419 million, down 6% from the prior year, primarily due to a decline in the communications category [10][21] - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q4 was 55.1%, unchanged from the prior quarter, while full year gross margin was 54.4%, up more than two percentage points from the prior year [23][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer revenues were down mid-teens sequentially, reflecting softness in major appliances [22] - Industrial revenues were down 10% sequentially, largely due to timing of shipments for metering applications [22] - Computer category revenues were down mid-single digits sequentially, while communications category revenues were up mid-single digits [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The communications category is expected to grow due to the rollout of 5G fixed wireless in India and increasing dollar content in the remaining cell phone business [11] - The industrial category is anticipated to see significant growth driven by infrastructure projects and renewable energy [12][46] - The consumer category's growth is expected to moderate, but there is optimism for air conditioning demand [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on GaN technology, expecting it to exceed 10% of sales in 2025, with significant growth opportunities in AI data centers and EV drivetrains [14][18] - The company is expanding its presence in India, capitalizing on government initiatives to localize production and modernize infrastructure [13] - Automotive revenues are projected to grow rapidly in 2025, with a focus on EV power architectures [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about sustaining a healthy rate of revenue growth in 2025, despite uncertainties around trade policy and end market demand [11][12] - The company expects all four business segments to grow in 2025, with industrial being the largest growth area [48][49] - Management is closely monitoring the impact of tariffs and subsidies on market demand, indicating a cautious but positive outlook for growth [73][74] Other Important Information - CEO Balu Balakrishnan announced his intention to retire, with plans to support the transition to a new CEO [6][7] - Greg Lowe will join the Board, bringing extensive experience in analog and power semiconductors [8][9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on GaN opportunities and confidence in EV drivetrain - Management highlighted significant strides in technology allowing for higher power applications, with expectations to compete effectively against silicon carbide [31][33][35] Question: Design wins in the automotive space - Currently, there are about 20 designs in production, with new GaN products suitable for various battery systems [38][40] Question: Changes in end market environment - Management noted no significant changes, but expects industrial growth to be strong due to infrastructure projects [45][46] Question: Channel inventory expectations - Channel inventory is expected to hold steady, with sell-in and sell-through being closely aligned [57] Question: Revenue from data center power supplies - The first product for data centers will be GaN-based, with significant revenue expected in 2028 [58][59]