Geopolitical Fragmentation

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贝莱德:2025 年年中全球展望
贝莱德· 2025-07-11 01:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating on European equities while favoring fixed income assets in Europe over other geographies [4][7][9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the world is undergoing a transformation driven by mega forces such as geopolitical fragmentation and technological advancements, which are reshaping economic landscapes and investment strategies [4][21][27]. - It highlights the need for Europe to reform its growth model in response to changing global dynamics, with a focus on infrastructure and defense spending as key areas for investment [4][10][74]. - The report suggests that while there are selective opportunities in European equities, the overall outlook remains cautious due to competitive challenges and the need for structural reforms [9][46][96]. Summary by Sections Investment Environment - The macro environment is characterized by elevated policy uncertainty and a shift from stabilizing to destabilizing forces in financial markets [22][24]. - The report notes that inflation pressures in the U.S. are persistent, influenced by geopolitical factors and labor market conditions, which limits the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates significantly [54][55]. Themes - The report outlines three main themes: investing for the near term, managing macro risks without clear anchors, and finding stability in mega forces [15][26]. - It emphasizes the importance of tracking mega forces like AI and energy transitions as durable drivers of returns, despite the uncertainty surrounding their long-term impacts [63][72]. Mega Forces - Geopolitical fragmentation is reshaping investment strategies, particularly in Europe, where defense spending is increasing significantly [73][82]. - The AI mega force is evolving through phases of buildout, adoption, and transformation, with significant capital spending expected in related sectors [83][86]. U.S. Assets - The report maintains that U.S. assets remain core to investment portfolios, supported by strong corporate earnings and resilience in the tech sector [94][96]. - Despite recent volatility, the U.S. dollar's role as a global reserve currency is expected to persist, although adjustments in currency hedging may occur [104][106].