Good Tuesday morning. Welcome back to opening bell. We're getting you ready for the trading day. First trading day of the week.Yesterday closed for President's Day. Subway wasn't too busy today. I have to say maybe a lot of people are off.Michael Gusay, CIO and global head of fixed income is with us, Principal Asset Management. Thank you so much for being with us. I was saying a lot of the folks I've been speaking with are comfortable with the 10-year bond yields being somewhere between 35 and 45, but the f ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted earnings for the full year were $38.8 million or $0.95 per share, and for the fourth quarter, they were $11.6 million or $0.28 per share [11] - EBITDA for the quarter was $27 million and for the year was $95 million, highlighting strong operating leverage [13] - The cash break-even rate was reported at $11,700 per day, or $10,800 per day excluding CapEx, indicating effective cost management [10][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - MR tankers earned $25,300 per day in Q4 and $29,100 per day in Q1 2026, while chemical tankers earned $19,900 per day in Q4 and $20,800 per day in Q1 2026 [10] - The company maintained a strong spot market exposure of 82% while also securing high-quality fixed-rate time charters [11][29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The dislocation of oil refineries is a continuing trend, with refining capacity shifting east and tightening regional supply in the West, leading to increased voyage lengths and ton miles [14] - The global tanker fleet is facing sanctions, with over 16% currently subjected to them, tightening supply and benefiting compliant fleets like Ardmore's [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ardmore's strategy focuses on capturing opportunities in refined oil products and complex chemical cargoes, supported by a fully integrated trading platform [19] - The company emphasizes asset flexibility, allowing it to adapt quickly to changing market conditions and capture value across cycles [21] - Ardmore's capital allocation policy remains aligned with its long-term strategy, focusing on performance and innovation [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted that geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions are reshaping trade flows, reinforcing the importance of flexibility in operations [53] - The company is committed to maintaining financial flexibility to navigate uncertainties and capitalize on opportunities [54] Other Important Information - Ardmore completed a major dry docking cycle, enhancing fleet performance and reducing future CapEx significantly [25] - The company has been recognized for its strong corporate governance, ranking as the top tanker company in Weber's Corporate Governance Scorecard [38] Q&A Session Summary Question: Future capital allocation considering rising asset values - Management indicated a non-binary approach to capital allocation, balancing between growth and maintaining a strong fleet, while observing market conditions closely [58] Question: Thoughts on the new building market for MRs - Management has not participated in the new building market since 2013, finding better value in the second-hand market, and remains vigilant about market opportunities [60] Question: Clarification on AI returns - The response clarified that the focus is on ensuring that AI investments meet ambitious return expectations, emphasizing a strategy of adopting rather than developing AI [66]

(Bloomberg) — Treasuries extended losses after Chinese regulators were said to have advised the nation’s financial institutions to rein in their holdings of US government bonds due to concerns over market volatility. Yields on benchmark Treasuries (^TNX) climbed as much as four basis points to 4.25%. In London, the yield was up 2 basis points at 4.22% and the rate on the 30-year bond (^TYX) rose three basis points to 4.88%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.2%. Most Read from Bloomberg Chinese ...

March WTI crude oil (CLH26) on Friday closed up +0.26 (+0.41%), and March RBOB gasoline (RBH26) closed up +0.0266 (+1.38%). Crude oil and gasoline prices recovered from early losses on Friday and moved higher after the dollar (DXY00) weakened.   Also, doubts that the US-Iranian talks in Oman will lead to a breakthrough in a nuclear deal are underpinning oil prices after the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran stands by its refusal to end uranium enrichment, a major sticking point for the US.  Crude pri ...

March WTI crude oil (CLH26) today is up +0.79 (+1.25%), and March RBOB gasoline (RBH26) is up +0.0291 (+1.51%). Crude oil and gasoline prices recovered from early losses today and moved higher after the dollar weakened.   Also, concerns that the US-Iranian talks in Oman will not lead to a breakthrough in a nuclear deal are underpinning oil prices, after the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran stands by its refusal to end uranium enrichment, a major sticking point for the US.  Crude prices added to thei ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **oil and refining industry**, focusing on crude oil prices, refining margins, and geopolitical risks affecting supply and demand dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Crude Oil Price Trends** - Crude oil prices have strengthened due to disruptions and rising risk premiums, with a near-term target of **$70/bbl for Brent** [1] - The situation with Iran remains fluid, with expectations of escalation before de-escalation, impacting price volatility [1][2] - Recent discussions regarding US-Iran negotiations have eased immediate risk premiums, but concerns about upside risks persist due to US actions and Indian purchases of Russian oil [2] 2. **Refining Margins** - Refining margins are expected to compress further due to: - Potential oil supply disruptions or diversions from Russian oil [4] - Higher year-on-year refinery capacity growth and availability [4][17] - Looser fundamentals of gasoline compared to middle distillates [4][17] - Gasoline inventories are surging, pressuring gasoline crack spreads, while gasoil and jet fuel cracks are supported by tighter inventories and geopolitical risks [5][37] 3. **Geopolitical Risks** - Middle distillates, including gasoil and jet fuel, are more vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions than gasoline due to higher exports from the Middle East [41][42] - The US seeks to negotiate Iran's nuclear disarmament and missile control, while Iran is open to nuclear talks but resistant on other fronts [2][10] 4. **US Oil Inventories** - US commercial crude oil inventories fell by **3.5 million barrels** to **420.3 million barrels**, which is **-3.5 million barrels** compared to the same period last year [62] - Diesel inventories decreased by **5.6 million barrels** to **127.4 million barrels**, while gasoline inventories rose by **0.7 million barrels** to **257.9 million barrels** [63][64] 5. **Market Dynamics** - The US oil market is experiencing a tightening of crude oil and diesel stocks due to cold weather affecting heating demand and refinery activity [62] - The amount of oil on-water worldwide fell by **9.0 million barrels** to **1305.9 million barrels**, indicating a potential shift in supply dynamics [55] Other Important Insights - The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, with ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran potentially impacting oil prices and market stability [9][11] - The passing of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi in Libya could shift domestic political dynamics, potentially stabilizing the oil sector if governance improves [13] - OPEC+ has quietly tightened supply, with exports dropping from **31 million barrels per day** in early Q4 2025 to **29 million barrels per day** in January 2026 [14] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between geopolitical factors, market dynamics, and inventory trends in the oil and refining industry.

Essentially, investors who took profits on the rally to last week’s historic high are now returning at more attractive prices. They realize that the key bullish fundamentals remain intact — central bank buying, geopolitical risks and U.S. debt issues — and prices are now cheaper than they were a week ago.Fed Policy Concerns Create HeadwindsThe next leg up won’t be easy, however, with Fed policy concerns creating headwinds. As recently as last week, bullish traders were confident the Fed would cut rates at l ...

Geopolitical Tensions Impacting Financial Markets - Rising geopolitical tensions have led to significant volatility in financial markets, with the U.S. dollar reaching a four-year low and gold prices surpassing $5,000 [2][4] - Oil prices have increased to a six-month high, while long-term Treasury bonds have experienced a sell-off, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2] Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Despite the turbulent trading environment, stocks managed to finish January positively, although investor confidence has been shaken by concerns over political risks and the behavior of President Trump [3][5] - Investors are increasingly nervous about tariffs and international relations, which are perceived to be more uncertain than in the previous year [3] Geopolitical Risks and Investment Strategies - The nomination of Kevin Warsh to chair the Federal Reserve did not alleviate market concerns, suggesting that geopolitical risks are becoming a significant factor in asset pricing [5] - Some investors are attempting to incorporate geopolitical considerations into their investment strategies, particularly in gold, which is being favored by both individual investors and central banks [5]

OPEC+ ratified plans to keep production steady in March — the last part of a three-month supply freeze, even after prices hit a four-month high on the prospect of a US strike against Iran.Eight key members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed the pause — first agreed in November — during a video conference on Sunday, the group said in a statement. Delegates said they left the question of what to do after the first-quarter hiatus expires for their next meeting, scheduled for March 1. They asked not to b ...

By the end of the session, the benchmarks had pared some losses, with the Sensex down 296.59 points or 0.36% at 82,269.78, while the Nifty fell 98 points or 0.39% to end at 25,320.65.Here's how analysts read the market pulse:Indian equity markets remained volatile ahead of the Union Budget, with benchmark indices dragged lower by weakness in “With geopolitical risks and global tariff pressures rising, the Union Budget is keenly awaited for cues on growth support and fiscal discipline. Globally, although a ...