Market Reactions - US stock futures rose significantly, with S&P 500 contracts up 0.8%, Nasdaq 100 futures climbing 0.7%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures leaping 0.9% following President Trump's comments about potentially ending the war in Iran [1][2] - Investor sentiment had previously declined due to expanding geopolitical risks, with the CBOE Volatility Index remaining above 30, indicating high market anxiety [3] Oil and Gas Prices - The average price of gasoline in the US reached $4.02 per gallon, the highest since August 2022, reflecting a rise of over $1 from $2.98 in the past month due to the ongoing conflict in Iran [5][6] - International oil prices have surged approximately 50% over the past month, with Brent crude trading around $107.80 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude at $102 per barrel [7] - Diesel prices have also increased, with the national average reaching $5.45 per gallon [9] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that inflation pressures appear contained, suggesting no immediate need for further rate hikes, which may provide some stability in the financial markets [4] - Investors are anticipating new economic data, including consumer confidence and job openings, which will offer insights into the health of the US economy [5]

Core Insights - Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM) and SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM) are benefiting from rising gold and silver prices, driven by safe-haven demand and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - Silver prices have surged 108% year-over-year, while gold prices are trending near $4,535 per ounce, indicating strong industrial demand and supply deficits [2] Group 1: Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) - WPM has a diversified portfolio of high-quality, long-life assets, which positions it well for growth [4] - In 2025, WPM's gold equivalent production reached 689,864 ounces, an 8.6% increase year-over-year, exceeding guidance [5] - Average cash costs for WPM in Q4 2025 were $597 per GEO, up from $444 in the prior year, with a cash operating margin of $3,941 per GEO [6] - WPM reported record operating cash flow of $1.9 billion in 2025, up from $1.03 billion in 2024, and had $1.15 billion in cash at the end of 2025 [6] - The company announced a record annual dividend of 66 cents per share for 2025 and raised its Q1 2026 dividend by 18% [7] - WPM expects 2026 production of 860,000-940,000 GEOs, a 30.5% increase at the midpoint, driven by new operating assets [8] - By 2030, WPM anticipates production to increase by 50% to 1,200,000 GEOs, with Salobo as a significant growth driver [9] Group 2: SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM) - SSRM's stock surged 163.7%, outperforming WPM, and it trades at a lower forward valuation multiple [11] - The acquisition of the Cripple Creek & Victor mine positions SSRM as the third-largest gold producer in the U.S., expected to produce 125,000 to 150,000 ounces of gold in 2026 [12][13] - SSRM's total gold production for 2026 is projected to be 450,000-535,000 gold-equivalent ounces, indicating a 10% year-over-year growth at the midpoint [14] - As of December 31, 2025, SSRM had $535 million in cash and $1.03 billion in available liquidity, with ongoing exploration activities [15] - SSRM faces cost inflation, with expected All-In Sustaining Costs of $2,180-$2,260 per ounce for 2026, up from $2,153 in 2025 [16] - Operations at the Çöpler mine are suspended due to a heap leach failure, with ongoing care and maintenance expenses [17] - SSRM is selling its 80% stake in the Çöpler mine for $1.5 billion, aligning with its strategy to focus on the Americas [18] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WPM's 2026 earnings is $4.37 per share, a 44.2% year-over-year increase, while SSRM's estimate is $3.72 per share, an 85.1% increase [19][20] - WPM's stock has increased by 61.8% over the past year, while SSRM has risen by 163.7% [21] - WPM trades at a forward earnings multiple of 29.00X, while SSRM trades at 6.89X, indicating a more attractive valuation for SSRM [23] - Both companies are expected to benefit from the surge in gold and silver prices, with SSRM showing stronger price performance and a more favorable valuation [26]

** The Shanghai Composite Index lost as much as 1% before recouping the losses and trading 0.2% higher to 3,922.72 at the midday trading break. ** ‌The blue-chip ⁠CSI 300 ⁠Index declined 0.2%. ** Hong Kong benchmark Hang Seng was down 0.9%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index lost 1.7%. ** Broader Live Events ** Hopes of Gulf peace talks were overshadowed by uncertainties as the U.S. builds up ground troops, while ⁠attacks on Israel ‌by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis further complicated the war. ** "With ** Still, ...

Core Viewpoint - Core Laboratories Inc. (CLB) has indicated that rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will negatively impact its financial performance for the first quarter of 2026, leading to a downward revision of its earlier guidance [1][8][9] Operational Challenges - The company is facing significant operational disruptions due to the ongoing conflict, including client-driven project delays, travel restrictions, and supply chain issues affecting equipment and materials [3][5] - Damage to oil refining infrastructure and storage facilities in the region has reduced capacity, forcing some operators to limit or halt production, which has a ripple effect across the energy value chain [4] Segment Performance - The impact of the geopolitical crisis varies across Core Laboratories' business segments: - The Reservoir Description segment has been the most affected due to its reliance on field access and sample transportation, significantly hindering its ability to deliver client studies and testing services [6] - The Production Enhancement segment, while facing delays, has shown relative resilience, although some deliveries have been temporarily suspended [7] Revised Financial Guidance - Core Laboratories has revised its first-quarter 2026 revenue outlook to a range of $119 million to $123 million, down from the previous expectation of $124 million to $130 million [8] - Operating income (ex-items) is now expected to be between $5.7 million and $7.1 million, reduced from an earlier forecast of $9.7 million to $12.2 million [9] - Earnings per share (ex-items) are now projected to be between 5 and 7 cents, down from the earlier expected 11 to 15 cents, reflecting the material impact of geopolitical instability [9] Future Outlook - Core Laboratories emphasizes that employee safety is a top priority and continues to adapt operations to minimize disruptions while maintaining service quality [10] - The company plans to monitor developments in the Middle East closely and provide updates as conditions evolve, indicating that near-term visibility will remain limited due to ongoing instability [10][11]

Market Reactions - Crude oil prices dipped over 4% to drop below $100 a barrel, while equity-index futures for the US gained more than 0.7% amid hopes for a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict [1][10] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%, and yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries dropped two basis points to 4.34%, as easing crude prices tempered inflation risks [2][10] - Gold rose for a second day to trade around $4,550 an ounce, and Bitcoin advanced to about $70,500 [2][10] Geopolitical Developments - The US has sent Iran a 15-point plan and is seeking a one-month ceasefire, indicating a potential diplomatic resolution [1][10] - President Trump noted that Iran had offered a "present" as a show of good faith in negotiations, with high-level peace talks being discussed [5][10] - Despite reports of a possible de-escalation, the conflict continues, with drone attacks in Kuwait and Israeli strikes in Tehran [6][10] Energy Market Insights - Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader, stated that reports of a potential 30-day ceasefire are easing worst-case pricing scenarios and reducing risk premiums in the crude market [3][10] - The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is critical for market stability, with ongoing negotiations influencing oil price dynamics [8][10] - Iran has started charging transit fees on commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, indicating its control over this vital maritime route [7][10] Private Credit Market Concerns - Issues in the private-credit market persist, with major firms like Ares Management Corp. and Apollo Global Management Inc. blocking investors from accessing funds, highlighting strain in the $1.8 trillion market [8][10] - Analysts caution that optimism regarding the resolution of the Middle East conflict may be misplaced without securing the Strait of Hormuz [9][10]

Geopolitical Developments - President Trump has delayed potential U.S. strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, citing ongoing discussions aimed at resolving the conflict [1] - Trump described the talks as "very good and productive," indicating a possible path toward a resolution, but emphasized that any pause in escalation depends on the success of negotiations [2] - Iran's Fars news agency reported no communication with Trump, raising doubts about the status of the talks [2] Market Outlook - The S&P 500 has lost about 3% over the past month, with JPMorgan strategists lowering their year-end target for the index from 7,500 to 7,200 due to geopolitical risks [3][4] - A potential oil supply shock linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz is a significant concern, with crude oil prices around $110 per barrel potentially reducing S&P 500 earnings per share estimates by 2-5% [4][5] Investment Strategies - JPMorgan advises investors to remain invested in equities while maintaining downside hedges, noting that historically, four out of five major oil shocks since the 1970s have led to recessions [6] - Several exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are highlighted as potential investment options amid rising volatility and the need for downside protection [7] ETFs Overview - The Invesco S&P 500 Downside Hedged ETF (PHDG) aims for positive total returns in various market conditions, charging 39 bps in fees and yielding 2.07% annually [8] - The NEOS Nasdaq-100 Hedged Equity Income ETF (QQQH) seeks high monthly income with downside protection, charging 68 bps in fees and yielding 8.42% annually [9] - The Invesco QQQ Income Advantage ETF (QQA) provides exposure to the Nasdaq-100 Index with an active option income overlay, charging 29 bps in fees and yielding 10.16% annually [11] - The FT Vest Laddered Buffer ETF (BUFR) aims for capital appreciation while limiting downside risk, charging 95 bps in fees [12]

Group 1 - Biedronka is interested in acquiring a significant portion of Carrefour's assets in Poland if Carrefour decides to sell, as stated by Biedronka's CEO Luis Araujo [1][2] - Carrefour's net sales for 2025 were €82.10 billion ($94.69 billion), with a gross margin decrease of 22 basis points to 19.5%, attributed to price investments and changes in store mix [2] - Net income for Carrefour dropped to €319 million in 2025 from €723 million in 2024, influenced by a higher tax of €516 million and integration costs [2] Group 2 - Jeronimo Martins reported a 2.3% increase in Q4 net profit, linked to stronger sales and margins at Biedronka [3] - The CEO of Jeronimo Martins indicated that maintaining EBITDA margins in 2026 would be extremely challenging due to increased geopolitical risks [4] - Carrefour is in exclusive talks to sell its Romanian operations to Paval Holding, with the deal expected to close in the second half of 2026 [5][6]

Market Overview - Asian stocks have declined significantly, with Japan's Nikkei 225 falling by 3.6%, reaching its lowest point since January, and South Korea also experiencing notable losses as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate [2][11] - U.S. equity index futures are retreating, with the S&P 500 down 2.5% week-over-week to 6,506, the Nasdaq 100 down 3% to 23,898, and the Dow 30 down 2.4% to 45,577, marking a fourth consecutive week of losses [1][2] Commodities - Gold prices have dropped by 4%, falling below $4.4K, erasing gains made in 2026 due to rising real yields, a stronger dollar, and reduced geopolitical risk premiums [2][11] - Oil prices have seen a significant increase, with WTI moving back above $98 amid geopolitical tensions, and Brent crude is forecasted to average $120 this year if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for six months [2][3] Stocks - Nvidia shares fell by 3.1% as the tech sector continues to lag, while Super Micro Computer experienced a drastic decline of 33.3% following legal issues related to smuggling Nvidia chips to China [2][3] - Notable gains were observed in the space and satellite sector, with York Space Systems up 19.2% and Planet Labs up 25.5% due to strong results [2] FX and Central Banks - The U.S. Dollar Index has increased, reaching the 99s, as energy prices rise, impacting Fed rate expectations and inflation [3][4] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated that the ongoing geopolitical conflict may alter monetary policy considerations, with some suggesting the potential for rate hikes if inflation persists [3][4] Client Sentiment - There has been a shift in client sentiment, with a decrease in extreme buy positions in the Dow and a heavy buy sentiment remaining in the S&P and Nasdaq [4][5] - In commodities, gold sentiment has dropped from extreme buy to 80%, while WTI sentiment has also decreased from 69% to 63% [4][5]

Core Insights - Gold has shown strong returns since early 2024, but experienced investors caution that it can also underperform [1] - Historically, gold performs well during global crises, but its long-term performance is often inferior to stocks [1][2] Performance Over Time - From 1985 to 2025, the S&P 500 returned 11.9% annually before inflation and 8.9% after inflation, while gold returned 6.7% annually before inflation and 3.8% after inflation [2] - From 1995 to 2025, stocks again outperformed gold, returning 11.1% annually before inflation and 8.4% after inflation, compared to gold's 8.1% and 5.4% respectively [5] - From 2005 to 2025, gold returned 11.6% annually before inflation and 8.8% after inflation, while stocks returned 10.7% annually or 7.9% after inflation [6] Gold and Inflation - Gold prices do not closely track inflation; between 1987 and 2001, inflation averaged around 3% while gold prices fell [7] - In 2022, despite high inflation, gold prices remained mostly flat, rising 13% early in the year but later dropping 10% [7][1] Gold During Crises - Gold typically rises during periods of investor fear, such as during the COVID-19 crash in 2020 when stocks fell over 30% but gold remained stable [8] - Gold prices surged during significant events like the 2008 financial crisis and the aftermath of 9/11 [8] Volatility of Gold - Gold prices are highly volatile; for instance, it rose 6% in 2012 but fell 28% in 2013 [9] - Over a five-year period ending in 2016, gold dropped 16.5%, but it has risen about 50% in recent years [9][16] Investment Vehicles - Gold ETFs are more convenient than physical gold, avoiding storage and insurance issues; SPDR Gold Shares ETF has about $105 billion in assets [10][16] - iShares Gold Trust offers lower fees compared to SPDR Gold Shares, and investors can also consider gold mining company funds [10]

Core Viewpoint - United Airlines Holdings is experiencing a decline in stock value due to multiple external pressures, including rising oil prices, geopolitical risks, and increasing treasury yields [2][3][4]. Group 1: Oil Prices and Costs - The escalation of conflict in the Middle East has led to a surge in oil prices, which typically results in higher jet fuel costs for airlines like United [2]. - Higher crude prices can pressure profit margins unless airlines can quickly implement fare hikes, hedging strategies, or network adjustments to offset these costs [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Prolonged regional conflicts may disrupt international travel patterns, increasing operational uncertainty for airlines [3]. - There is concern that energy-driven inflation could negatively impact both leisure and corporate travel demand, as consumers and businesses may feel the financial squeeze [3]. Group 3: Stock Performance and Market Trends - United Airlines stock has shown volatility over the past year, rising from approximately $56 to a peak of around $117 before recently declining [4]. - The stock has fallen below key short-term moving averages (20- and 50-day), indicating weakening momentum, although the longer-term 200-day trend remains upward [4]. - As of the latest report, UAL shares were down 4.83% at $89.61 [5].