Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but highlights the potential economic impacts of geopolitical risks and energy price fluctuations [2][33]. Core Insights - Geopolitical risks have increased due to military actions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, which could affect the global economy through higher energy prices, non-energy trade, and financial conditions [2][4]. - The primary economic risk identified is a rise in energy prices, with a baseline forecast suggesting Brent oil prices could ease to around $60 per barrel by year-end, assuming no supply disruptions [4][5]. - A reduction in Iranian oil supply could lower global GDP by 0.1-0.2 percentage points and increase headline inflation by 0.2-0.4 percentage points over the next year, depending on OPEC's response [4][13]. - A temporary disruption of energy supply through the Strait of Hormuz could lower global growth by over 0.3 percentage points and raise headline inflation by 0.7 percentage points [4][13]. - Spillover effects from the Iran-Israel conflict on non-energy trade are expected to be limited, as most countries have minimal trade exposure to the region [21][25]. - Historical data indicates that financial conditions have not systematically tightened or eased during previous Middle East conflicts, suggesting limited impact on growth from financial conditions in the current situation [25][29]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact Assessment - The report assesses the economic impacts of the Middle East conflict through three main channels: energy prices, non-energy trade, and financial conditions [2][4]. - Higher oil prices are expected to weigh on real incomes and spending, with oil exporters potentially benefiting [6][7]. Energy Price Scenarios - The report outlines several scenarios regarding oil supply disruptions, including: - Baseline scenario: Brent oil prices decline to around $60 per barrel [10]. - Iranian supply reduction with partial OPEC offset: Prices could spike to just above $90 per barrel [11]. - Significant disruption through the Strait of Hormuz: Prices could peak around $110 per barrel [16][17]. - Each 10% increase in oil prices is estimated to lower global growth by 0.1 percentage points and raise global headline inflation by 0.2 percentage points [7][12]. Financial Conditions - The report indicates that financial conditions have shown mixed responses to geopolitical risks, with only a modest tightening observed since the onset of the conflict [25][30]. - Historical analysis suggests that geopolitical risks from the Middle East have had minimal effects on financial conditions overall [29][30]. Monitoring and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the need for close monitoring of energy price risks as the situation evolves, despite a limited impact on the baseline economic outlook [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating for various companies across the energy sub-sectors, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [94][95]. Core Insights - The energy sector has performed in line with the broader market year-to-date, with rising geopolitical risks and stronger oil prices contributing to this performance [15][17]. - The report highlights a preference for natural gas exposure over oil, particularly in the Exploration & Production (E&P) segment, due to expected gas deficits and oversupply in the oil market [103][95]. - The refining and marketing sub-sector is expected to benefit from summer travel demand and tight product inventories, supporting margins [115][117]. Energy Performance & Valuation - Energy sub-sectors are near 10-year median EV/EBITDA multiples, with services stocks at the low end of historical ranges [17]. - The report forecasts a median free cash flow (FCF) yield of 11% at $65 WTI, with variations based on oil price scenarios [103][110]. Commodities and Macro Outlook - WTI oil prices have rallied approximately 25% since early May, driven by a tight crude market and geopolitical tensions [24][31]. - The report anticipates a surplus in the oil market in the second half of 2025, while a natural gas deficit is expected to re-emerge [103][42]. Sub-Sector Views Exploration & Production - The report emphasizes a defensive bias and preference for U.S. gas exposure over oil, with EQT identified as a top pick [95][111]. - Oil producers with a positive rate of change are favored, with Devon Energy (DVN) and Permian Resources (PR) highlighted for their strong performance [95][111]. Refining & Marketing - The summer travel season is expected to provide a demand boost, with product inventories remaining tight [115][117]. - Key stock plays include Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) and HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) due to their operational strengths [115][117]. Energy Services - The report suggests maintaining exposure to defensive and diverse characteristics, with Baker Hughes (BKR) and Schlumberger (SLB) as preferred stocks [95][130]. - The energy services sector is trading at historically low valuations compared to the S&P, indicating potential upside [124][132]. Midstream Energy - Midstream energy infrastructure is viewed as misvalued, with expectations for strong free cash flow and high dividend yields [136][142]. - Key stocks in this segment include Targa Resources Corp (TRGP), Oneok Inc. (OKE), and Energy Transfer LP (ET) [142].

All right. Well, city's head of equity trading strategy recommends going long. High quality stocks right now.Stuart Kaiser is behind the call. Stuart, great to have you with us. Nice to see you.Good to be here. Um, we're talking about tech all-time highs once again, as if last week never happened. As if a trade war never happened.As if a conflict between Israel and Iran isn't happening right now. What do you make of this market move. I mean, I think the recovery today is is just reassurance to the market th ...

With all that said, what do we make uh of the market reaction today. We had the typical bid for gold. We had the atypical uh lack of bid for treasuries and the markets hung in until Iran retaliated.Yeah. And it's it's amazing because a couple days ago it was like whoa, the VIX is grinding below. We're about to go south of 16 now.We're dancing, you know, up near 20. And and if you think about right, those inputs, I mean, the rallying gold. So, gold makes a fresh all-time higher right there around the May 6 h ...

Catalyst anchor Brad Smith breaks down the latest news and market movers for June 13, 2025. Geopolitical risks pressure markets, with stocks sliding following Israel's attack on Iran. President Trump is urging Iran to make a deal. Former Ambassador to Morocco Marc Ginsberg discusses what the Israeli attack on Iran means for negotiations with the US. #youtube #stocks #investing About Yahoo Finance: Yahoo Finance provides free stock ticker data, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, comprehensive m ...

Group 1 - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon highlighted that the markets have not fully accounted for risks such as inflation, stagflation, credit spreads, tariffs, and geopolitical challenges [1] - Dimon expressed concerns about the greater likelihood of inflation and stagflation than commonly perceived, and noted that credit spreads have not factored in a potential downturn [1] - Despite economic uncertainties, JPMorgan Chase is projecting an increase in earnings from interest payments this year [2] Group 2 - JPMorgan's Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum indicated that the bank's net interest income could rise by $1 billion this year, although the full-year projection of $94.5 billion remains unchanged for now [3] - The bank anticipates a net charge-off rate for credit card debt to be between 3.6% and 3.9% for 2026, compared to an expected 3.6% for the current year [4] - Consumer confidence and small business sentiment have worsened, with over half of businesses in goods-producing sectors expecting negative impacts from tariffs, driven by supply chain disruptions and rising raw material costs [4]

Core Viewpoint - Core Laboratories Inc. (CLB) has seen a year-to-date stock price decrease of 29.7%, significantly underperforming the broader oil and gas sector and the oil and gas field services sub-industry [1] - The sharp drop in share price raises questions for investors about whether this represents a buying opportunity or a sign of deeper issues [2] Company Overview - Core Laboratories provides specialized services in the oil and gas industry, focusing on analyzing reservoir rock and fluid samples and improving well productivity [5][6] - The company operates through two main segments: Reservoir Description and Production Enhancement [5] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, CLB reported adjusted earnings of 8 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 15 cents, primarily due to the underperformance of the Reservoir Description segment [7] - Total costs and expenses for Q1 were $119.2 million, an increase of 1.6% from the previous year [7] Revenue Trends - First-quarter 2025 revenues fell 4.4% sequentially to $123.6 million, indicating weakened customer activity across both business segments [8] - The decline in revenue reflects softness in international activity, particularly in Asia-Pacific and Africa, and a downward trend in North America's activity [8] Operational Challenges - Expanded sanctions and tariffs have disrupted laboratory services and delayed product sales, including a $1.1 million international order in Q1 [10] - Core's return on invested capital (ROIC) for Q1 2025 was 8.3%, raising concerns about capital efficiency compared to industry peers [11] Shareholder Returns - CLB pays a nominal quarterly dividend of 1 cent per share, significantly lower than peers, and repurchased $2 million worth of shares in Q1, which is modest relative to its cash flow profile [12] - The company faces foreign currency exchange headwinds in Latin America, which can erode margins and add unpredictability to earnings [13] Market Sensitivity - CLB's performance is closely tied to crude oil demand, which is uncertain due to OPEC+ production increases and U.S. tariffs [14] - The Energy Information Administration forecasts minimal U.S. production growth in 2025-2026, which may lead to stagnation in domestic revenues [14] Investment Outlook - The combination of weak earnings, falling revenues, and exposure to geopolitical and currency risks suggests structural challenges for CLB [16] - Investors may be better off exploring other opportunities in the oil and gas sector unless the company demonstrates improved financial results and operational stability [18]