Core Viewpoint - January highlighted that even strong earnings and a robust economy can be overshadowed by geopolitical shocks affecting market stability [1] Group 1 - Geopolitical events can significantly impact investor sentiment and market performance, regardless of underlying economic fundamentals [1]

Market Reaction - Bitcoin's price fell by 3% following US President Trump's tariff threats against NATO allies, impacting global markets [1] - The cryptocurrency is currently trading just under $93,000, having lost much of its gains from earlier in 2026 after reaching a peak of $97,500 [2] - The US dollar's value has also declined, with US stock futures showing a downward trend [3] Geopolitical Impact - Analysts have expressed concerns about potential retaliatory actions that could negatively affect the US economy, with public opinion of the US reportedly declining [2] - The European Council warned that the tariffs could damage transatlantic relations and lead to a "dangerous downward spiral," emphasizing Europe's commitment to sovereignty [2] Bitcoin's Market Dynamics - The recent selloff highlights Bitcoin's vulnerability to geopolitical events, as it moved in tandem with traditional markets rather than acting as a safe-haven asset [4] - Market sentiment is bearish for Bitcoin, with only 10% of bettors on Polymarket predicting a new all-time high by March [4] Analyst Insights - Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone noted that Bitcoin's inability to maintain key long-term averages in 2025 could indicate a potential decline towards $10,000 [5] - McGlone pointed out the "poor risk-adjusted performance since 2021" and the "unlimited crypto supply" as factors suggesting further downside risks [5] Investor Activity - Despite the bearish outlook, some investors remain optimistic, with Michael Saylor's firm continuing to purchase Bitcoin, including a recent acquisition of $1.3 billion [6] - Prominent trader Arthur Hayes has predicted that Bitcoin's price could reach $110,000 by 2026 [6] Current Market Status - Bitcoin is currently down 2.3% over the past 24 hours, trading at $92,968, while Ethereum has dropped 2.9% to $3,207 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The focus should not solely be on Bitcoin's price targets but on investor preparedness for market volatility and unexpected events [1][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Geopolitical Events - Bitcoin experienced a nearly 5% increase following the news of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro's arrest, which caused sharp market reactions [3][4]. - The U.S. conducted a capture mission in Venezuela, highlighting the impact of geopolitical shocks on market dynamics [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Risks - Turner emphasizes that the greatest risk for retail investors is being forced to sell Bitcoin at low prices due to lack of planning for financial obligations [6]. - The volatility in crypto markets is routine, and investors must be cautious of complacency during drawdowns [5]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook and Strategy - Despite recent volatility, Turner maintains a bullish outlook on Bitcoin, believing structural forces will favor higher prices into 2026 [4]. - Investors who prepare for volatility can turn it into opportunities, as historical trends show that those who endure market turbulence are often rewarded [7].

Group 1 - Treasuries are experiencing their first gains in a week due to a decline in oil prices, alleviating inflation concerns following the US capture of Venezuela's president [1] - The yield on US 10-year debt decreased by two basis points to 4.17%, while the two-year rate fell by one basis point to 3.46% [1] - Money markets are anticipating two quarter-point reductions in borrowing costs by the Federal Reserve this year, with a 25% chance of a third cut [1] Group 2 - Global bond markets are benefiting from falling crude futures prices amid fears of a global supply glut, with potential revival in Venezuela's oil output following decades of declining production [3] - The market is expected to face a significant surplus this year as OPEC+ and other producers increase output [3] - US stock futures are rising, driven by gains in the technology sector, indicating an increased risk appetite among investors [4]

Market Reaction - The stock market showed little reaction to President Trump's actions in Venezuela, with S&P 500 futures up 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.7% in premarket trading [1] - Energy stocks, particularly Chevron and Exxon Mobil, saw significant gains, with Chevron rallying more than 7% and Exxon Mobil climbing more than 4% due to expectations that the takeover of Venezuela will benefit oil and gas companies [2] Geopolitical Impact - Historically, geopolitical shocks have little lasting impact on the stock market, and investors expect the situation in Venezuela will not escalate further, given Trump's previous criticisms of prolonged conflicts [3] - Analysts noted that while volatility is expected, the overall market remains relatively unfazed, with a quick resolution and low escalation threat calming investor jitters [4] Long-term Outlook - Venezuela's current oil exports are small, and any infrastructure development will play out over the long term, making the geopolitical event unlikely to be a major market mover [5] - Trump's statements regarding U.S. involvement in Venezuela are viewed more as negotiating tactics rather than indications of immediate military action [6]

Welcome back. Investors have a lot to keep an eye on this week from the events of the Middle East to another Fed meeting looming large. Joining us now, Alon's chief economic adviser, Muhammad Alerin.Welcome back. Thank you, Scott. So, how do you feel about the market today relative to our conversation on Friday given we still haven't had a resolution to what's happening in the Middle East, but the market certainly is taking it better.Yeah, I think two things happened today, Scott. one is behavioral. The mar ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the experience of an investor in Ukraine who has successfully navigated a volatile market environment due to geopolitical shocks, particularly the ongoing war in Ukraine [1] Group 1: Investor Experience - The investor has built an all-weather portfolio that thrives in volatile markets, indicating a strategy focused on resilience during economic and political uncertainty [1] - The goal is to assist other investors in identifying event-driven geopolitical investment opportunities that can yield strong returns [1] Group 2: Market Context - The article highlights the systemic geopolitical shocks that can impact investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of adapting to such conditions [1]