NEW YORK, Dec 22 (Reuters) - A dismal year for the U.S. dollar is ending with signs of stabilization, but many investors believe the currency's decline will resume next year as global growth picks up and the Fed eases further. The U.S. dollar slumped 9% this year, against a basket of currencies, putting it on pace for its worst showing ​in eight years, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, shrinking interest rate differentials with other major currencies, and as concerns about U.S. fiscal d ...

Core Insights - Economists initially anticipated a global economic shock due to President Trump's tariffs, but many are now adjusting their global growth forecasts upward [1] Group 1 - The initial predictions of a negative impact from tariffs have shifted as economists reassess the overall economic landscape [1] - The upward revision of growth predictions indicates a more optimistic outlook for the global economy despite previous concerns [1]

Group 1 - The global economy is performing better than anticipated despite challenges such as higher tariffs and increased uncertainty in international relations [1] - The head of the International Monetary Fund highlighted the implications of technological change on the economy [1]

Market Overview - September is historically a weaker month, but the S&P 500 is at new highs, supported by banks, discretionary spending, and industrials [2][3] - There may be shifting macro winds globally, requiring attention to potential global growth reacceleration [3] Global Growth Indicators - Copper has broken out, and the Australian dollar is turning up, suggesting positive momentum for risk assets [4] - Commodity currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars indicate positive economic momentum [4] - The material sector is only 2% of the S&P, and Chinese stocks and Nikkei have recently broken out, suggesting the global growth renition is still early [5] Sector Analysis and Investment Opportunities - Copper stocks (Freeport, Rio, Valet) and steel (Cleveland Cliffs) are showing signs of resurgence [7] - Consumer discretionary is performing well, indicating the resurgence in materials/commodities isn't at the expense of the consumer [8][9] - Power stocks (CEG, Vistra, GE Vernova) and AI-adjacent infrastructure stocks (Quanta) are recovering after a pause [9] AI and Power Sector - The AI power data center trade is back in gear after a 12-week pause [9][10] Federal Reserve Considerations - The potential impact of Federal Reserve (The Fed) actions on global growth, rates, and the dollar needs to be considered [6]

The Chinese government will, as always, encourage and support entrepreneurs in their undertakings and endeavours and continue to foster a market oriented world class business environment governed by a sound legal framework. With arms wide open, we warmly welcome enterprises from around the world to invest in China, deepen your roots in China, develop alongside China, and work with us for a better future. To conclude, I wish this annual meeting a full success.Thank you. That was the Chinese premier, Li Qiang ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the current state of the global economy, focusing on macroeconomic indicators and market performance across various asset classes, particularly equities, bonds, and commodities [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Indicators**: - The Euro area-wide flash composite PMI is reported at 50.4, indicating mixed data across countries and sectors [2][3]. - US growth forecasts have been revised down to 1.7% for Q4/Q4 due to tariff-induced uncertainty affecting sentiment and growth [3][4]. 2. **Market Performance**: - US equities showed signs of relief, supported by expectations of limited tariff announcements [2]. - Asian equities and commodities performed well, while the US Dollar rebounded after a recent correction [2]. 3. **Central Bank Policies**: - Central banks, including the Fed, BoJ, and BoE, have slowed their pace of easing, maintaining steady rates, except for the Swiss National Bank, which cut rates by 25 basis points [2][3]. 4. **Investment Recommendations**: - A balanced portfolio is recommended, with overweight positions in equities and bonds, neutral in commodities and cash, and underweight in credit [5]. - Selective cross-asset option overlays are suggested, such as put spreads on oil as a hedge against lower global growth [5]. 5. **Volatility and Risk Management**: - Implied volatility has increased, particularly for equities, prompting a focus on diversification across and within asset classes [5]. - Strategies like selling risk-reversals on EUR/CHF are highlighted to hedge against European growth downside risks [5]. 6. **Safe Haven Assets**: - Diversifying safe havens beyond the US Dollar is advised, with JPY/AUD showing greater sensitivity to global growth expectations compared to Dollar crosses [5]. Additional Important Content - The report emphasizes the negative correlation between G4 yields and economic surprises across regions, with the exception of Germany, where expectations of increased fiscal spending have driven yields upward [4][16]. - The performance of credit indices has outperformed equities during sell-offs due to their lower beta to risk-off episodes [4]. - The report includes various exhibits that illustrate the performance of different asset classes, risk appetite indicators, and valuation metrics [8][24][29][64]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape, market performance, and investment strategies recommended by Goldman Sachs.