Key Takeaways AngloGold Ashanti and SSRM are gaining momentum as gold prices trade above $4,153 per ounce.AU boosted output 17% in Q3 and expanded its portfolio with new assets in Nevada and Egypt.SSRM grew with the recent acquisition but faces uncertainty as operations at Cpler remain suspended.AngloGold Ashanti PLC (AU) and SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM) are two prominent gold producers, each with a diversified portfolio of mines across multiple continents. Both AU and SSRM are gaining from the upside in gold pri ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongguan Gold Group is initiated with an OUTPERFORM rating and a target price of HK$3.52, driven by its strong gold exploration expertise and organic growth momentum [1] Investment Positives - The company has a total of 55.0 tons of gold reserves with an average ore grade of 8.26g/t, and expects gold sales volume to reach 2.8 tons in 2025 and 3.4 tons in 2026 [1] - Tongguan Gold's acquisition of Xi'an Hongshang is expected to reduce production costs through value chain consolidation [1] - Zijin Mining's acquisition of a 3.82% stake in Tongguan Gold for US$25 million indicates confidence in the company's asset quality and strategic direction [2] - The anticipated continuation of gold purchases by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to support gold price increases [3][4] Financials and Valuation - Forecasted EPS is HK$0.16 in 2025 and HK$0.23 in 2026, representing a CAGR of 121% from 2024 to 2026 [5] - The stock is currently trading at 17.3x 2025 estimated P/E and 11.6x 2026 estimated P/E, with a target price implying a 30% upside [5]

Core Viewpoint - Barrick Mining Corporation's shares have increased by 41% in the last three months, driven by record gold prices amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties [1][16] Group 1: Stock Performance - Barrick has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 19.1% and the S&P 500's rise of 8.9% in the same period [2] - The stock broke above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on May 30, 2025, and is currently trading above its 200-day SMA, indicating a long-term uptrend [5] Group 2: Growth Projects - Barrick is advancing key growth projects, including Goldrush, Pueblo Viejo plant expansion, Fourmile, Lumwana Super Pit, and Reko Diq, which are expected to significantly boost production [9] - The Goldrush mine aims for 400,000 ounces of production per annum by 2028, while the Reko Diq project is designed to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually in its second phase [10] Group 3: Financial Position - Barrick has a strong liquidity position with cash and cash equivalents of approximately $4.8 billion and generated operating cash flows of around $1.3 billion in the second quarter, a 15% year-over-year increase [12] - The company returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and repurchases, with a new share repurchase program authorized for up to $1 billion [13] Group 4: Gold Prices and Profitability - Gold prices have surged approximately 52% this year, reaching over $4,000 per ton, driven by geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases [16] - Higher gold prices are expected to enhance Barrick's profit margins and free cash flow generation [14] Group 5: Cost Challenges - Barrick faces challenges from rising production costs, with cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) increasing by around 17% and 12% year-over-year, respectively [18] - For 2025, Barrick projects total cash costs per ounce of $1,050-$1,130 and AISC in the range of $1,460-$1,560, indicating a year-over-year increase [19] Group 6: Production Outlook - The company expects attributable gold production of 3.15-3.5 million ounces for full-year 2025, a decline from 3.91 million ounces in 2024, primarily due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine [20] Group 7: Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for Barrick have been revised upward, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 indicating year-over-year increases of 69.8% and 36.2%, respectively [21] Group 8: Valuation - Barrick's stock is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 11.7X, which is a discount to the industry's average of 12.35X [23]

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Core Viewpoint - Newmont Corporation (NEM) and Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) are positioned to benefit from soaring gold prices driven by the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and global trade tensions [1][2][3] Gold Market Overview - Gold prices have surged approximately 43% this year, reaching over $3,700 per ton for the first time, influenced by central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [3] - Central banks globally are accumulating gold reserves due to risks associated with aggressive trade policies [2] Newmont Corporation (NEM) - Newmont is investing in growth projects such as the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana and the Cadia Panel Caves in Australia, aimed at increasing production capacity and extending mine life [5] - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited has enhanced Newmont's portfolio, expected to generate $500 million in annual run-rate synergies [6] - Newmont's divestiture program is projected to yield $3 billion in after-tax cash proceeds, reinforcing its capital allocation strategy [8] - The company reported a liquidity position of $10.2 billion, with free cash flow increasing to $1.7 billion, and has returned approximately $2 billion to shareholders [9] - Newmont offers a dividend yield of 1.2% with a sustainable payout ratio of 20% [10] Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) - Kinross has a strong production profile with key projects like Great Bear in Ontario and Round Mountain Phase X in Nevada, expected to enhance cash flow [12] - Tasiast and Paracatu are significant contributors to cash flow, with Tasiast being the lowest-cost asset [13] - Kinross ended Q2 2025 with liquidity of approximately $2.8 billion and reported a free cash flow increase of 87% year-over-year [14] - The company repaid $800 million of debt in 2024, improving its net debt position to around $100 million [15] - Kinross has a dividend yield of 0.5% with a payout ratio of 10% [15] Financial Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, NEM stock has increased by 127.5%, while KGC stock has risen by 164.1%, outperforming the industry average of 117.7% [18] - KGC trades at a forward earnings multiple of 16.52, while NEM trades at 15.38, indicating a discount for Newmont [19][20] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NEM's 2025 sales and EPS indicates growth of 10.7% and 57.5%, respectively, while KGC's estimates imply growth of 27.8% and 108.8% [24][25] Investment Consideration - Both companies are well-positioned to capitalize on high gold prices, with strong financial health and development pipelines [27] - Newmont is viewed as a more attractive investment option due to its higher dividend yield and favorable valuation compared to Kinross [27]

Core Insights - Barrick Mining Corporation and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited are leading gold producers benefiting from soaring gold prices driven by geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases [1][2][3] - Gold prices have increased approximately 43% this year, reaching over $3,700 per ton, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and trade uncertainties [3][4] Barrick Mining Corporation - Barrick is advancing key growth projects such as Goldrush, Pueblo Viejo expansion, and Reko Diq, which are expected to significantly boost production [5][6] - The Goldrush mine aims for 400,000 ounces of annual production by 2028, while the Reko Diq project is projected to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually [6][7] - Barrick's liquidity is strong, with cash and equivalents around $4.8 billion and operating cash flows of approximately $1.3 billion, up 15% year-over-year [8] - The company returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2024 and has a dividend yield of 1.8% with a payout ratio of 25% [9][10] - However, Barrick faces challenges with rising costs, with cash costs per ounce increasing by 17% and AISC rising to $1,684, reflecting higher operational costs [11][12] Agnico Eagle Mines Limited - Agnico Eagle is focused on growth projects like Odyssey, Detour Lake, and Hope Bay, which are expected to enhance production and cash flows [13][14] - The Hope Bay Project has proven reserves of 3.4 million ounces and is anticipated to generate significant cash flow [14] - AEM's operating cash flow for the second quarter was approximately $1.85 billion, a 92% increase from the previous year, with free cash flow of $1.3 billion [18][19] - The company has reduced long-term debt by $550 million, ending the quarter with a net cash position of $963 million, and offers a dividend yield of 1% with a payout ratio of 27% [20] - AEM's AISC was $1,289 per ounce, marking a 9% increase from the prior quarter, indicating rising production costs [21][22] Comparative Analysis - Year-to-date, Barrick's stock has surged 128.2%, while Agnico Eagle's stock has increased by 106.1%, both outperforming the industry average [23] - Barrick trades at a forward earnings multiple of 14.74, which is a discount compared to the industry average, while AEM trades at a premium with a multiple of 22.22 [24][25] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects Barrick's 2025 sales and EPS to rise by 19% and 62.7%, respectively, while AEM's estimates imply growth of 30.6% in sales and 67.4% in EPS [30][31] - AEM's return on equity stands at 13.8%, higher than Barrick's 8.2%, indicating more efficient use of shareholder funds [32] Investment Considerations - Both companies are well-positioned to benefit from the current gold price environment, with strong project pipelines and financial health [34] - AEM's higher dividend growth rate and lower leverage suggest it may offer better investment prospects compared to Barrick in the current market [34]

Valuation and Performance - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) is currently trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 6.09X, which represents a discount of approximately 60.9% compared to the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's average of 15.59X [1][5] - HMY's shares have increased by 82.8% this year, although this is lower than the industry's rise of 101.6% and the S&P 500's increase of 12.7% [2] Growth Projects - HMY is focused on key projects such as Wafi-Golpu and Eva Copper, which are expected to enhance its gold and copper production capabilities [5][11] - The Wafi-Golpu project has an estimated gold reserve of 13 million ounces and is currently in negotiations for a Mining Development Contract [13] - The Eva Copper project is expected to produce 55,000-60,000 tons of copper annually, with first production anticipated in 2028 [14] Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have surged by 39% this year, driven by factors such as aggressive trade policies, central bank purchases, and geopolitical tensions [15][16] - For fiscal 2025, HMY recorded a 31% increase in average gold prices received, reaching $2,620 per ounce, which is expected to enhance profitability [17] Financial Health - HMY has a strong balance sheet, with net cash increasing by approximately 295% to $628 million in fiscal 2025 [18] - The company ended the fiscal year with liquidity of $1,179 million and offers a dividend yield of 1.3% [18] Cost Challenges - HMY experienced a 20% increase in all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) to $1,806 per ounce in fiscal 2025, driven by higher labor and electricity costs [19][20] - The company anticipates continued cost pressures, particularly from electricity and labor, which are significant components of its cost structure [20] Production Issues - HMY's gold production for fiscal 2025 fell by 5% to around 1.48 million ounces, impacted by adverse weather and safety-related stoppages [22] - Production guidance for fiscal 2026 indicates continued challenges, with expected output of 1.4-1.5 million ounces [22][23] Earnings Outlook - Earnings estimates for HMY for fiscal 2026 have been revised downward over the past 60 days, indicating potential challenges ahead [23]

Core Viewpoint - AngloGold Ashanti and Kinross Gold are two leading gold producers with diversified mining operations across various continents, both positioned to benefit from the ongoing rise in gold prices [1][27]. Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold prices recently fell to $3,320 per ounce due to easing geopolitical concerns and a stronger U.S. dollar, but have increased 26% year-to-date, driven by safe-haven demand and geopolitical risks [2]. - Central bank buying and expanding industrial use in sectors like energy, healthcare, and technology are expected to support gold prices moving forward [2]. Group 2: AngloGold Ashanti Analysis - AngloGold Ashanti, based in South Africa, has operations in multiple countries and recently acquired Centamin, enhancing its asset base with the Sukari mine, which has a production potential of 500,000 ounces annually [4]. - In Q2 2025, AngloGold's gold production rose 21% year-over-year to 804,000 ounces, with a projected production range of 2.9-3.225 million ounces for 2025, indicating a year-over-year growth of 9-21% [5]. - Gold revenues in Q2 increased by 78% to $2.4 billion, although higher operating costs partially offset these gains [6]. - Total cash costs per ounce rose 8% to $1,226, while all-in-sustaining costs increased 7% to $1,666, with earnings per share up 108% to $1.25 [7]. - Free cash flow surged 149% year-over-year to $535 million, with liquidity at $3.4 billion and adjusted net debt reduced by 92% to $92 million [8]. - The company is focused on its Full Asset Potential program and has made strategic acquisitions to enhance its growth [9][10]. Group 3: Kinross Gold Analysis - Kinross Gold, headquartered in Canada, operates in several countries and has a strong production profile with promising exploration and development projects [14]. - In Q2 2025, Kinross's revenues rose 41.7% year-over-year to $1.73 billion, with adjusted earnings per share increasing to 44 cents from 14 cents [17]. - The company produced 512,574 gold equivalent ounces, a 4.3% decrease year-over-year, but higher production from certain mines offset declines from others [16]. - Kinross ended Q2 with solid liquidity of approximately $2.8 billion and free cash flow increased by 87% year-over-year to a record $647 million [18]. - The company has been reducing debt levels, ending Q2 with a total debt to total capital ratio of 0.14 [19]. Group 4: Earnings Estimates and Valuation - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AngloGold Ashanti's 2025 earnings is $4.96 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 124.43%, but a slight dip is expected in 2026 [20]. - Kinross Gold's earnings estimate for 2025 is $1.38 per share, indicating a year-over-year jump of 103%, with a slight growth expected in 2026 [21]. - In the past six months, AngloGold's stock gained 64.8%, while Kinross's stock increased by 70.5% [23]. - AngloGold is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 11.01X, while Kinross is at 13.40X, both higher than their five-year medians [25]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - Both companies are well-positioned to benefit from rising gold prices, but Kinross Gold has shown stronger year-to-date price performance and has a more compelling project pipeline [27]. - Kinross Gold is rated as a Strong Buy, while AngloGold Ashanti holds a Hold rating, indicating a preference for Kinross as a more attractive investment option [28].

Core Insights - SSR Mining (SSRM) and AngloGold Ashanti PLC (AU) are prominent players in the gold mining sector, benefiting from a 31.7% increase in gold prices this year due to safe-haven demand and central bank purchases [1][2] SSR Mining Overview - SSR Mining operates in the USA, Türkiye, Canada, and Argentina, and became the third-largest gold producer in the U.S. after acquiring the Cripple Creek & Victor mine [3][4] - The CC&V mine is projected to produce approximately 170,000 ounces of gold annually, contributing to SSRM's total expected production of 320,000-380,000 ounces in 2025 [4] - As of March 31, 2025, SSR Mining had $319.6 million in cash and a debt-to-capital ratio of 0.08, indicating a strong financial position [5] - Operations at the Çöpler mine in Türkiye are currently suspended due to a heap leach failure, leading to significant care and maintenance costs [6][7] - SSRM's projected all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for 2025 is $1,890-$1,950 per payable ounce, reflecting a 3% increase at the midpoint [8] AngloGold Ashanti Overview - AngloGold Ashanti has a diverse portfolio across Africa, the Americas, and Australia, recently acquiring Centamin, which adds a potential 500,000 ounces of annual production from the Sukari mine [9][10] - The company reported a 22% year-over-year increase in gold production to 720,000 ounces, with a projected output of 2.9-3.225 million ounces for 2025 [10][12] - AngloGold ended Q1 2025 with $3 billion in liquidity and a debt-to-capital ratio of 0.19, showcasing a solid financial foundation [12] - The company is focused on a Full Asset Potential program to mitigate inflation impacts, with AISC projected between $1,580 and $1,705 per ounce for 2025, indicating a 2% year-over-year increase [13][18] - AngloGold has implemented a new dividend policy aimed at returning 50% of annual free cash flow, enhancing its attractiveness to income-focused investors [27] Comparative Analysis - Year-to-date, SSRM stock has increased by 84.5%, while AU stock has risen by 125% [21] - SSRM trades at a forward earnings multiple of 7.29X, lower than its five-year median, whereas AU trades at 10.49X, higher than its five-year median [22] - AngloGold offers a dividend yield of 0.96% with a payout ratio of 18.55%, while SSRM currently does not pay dividends [23][27] - AngloGold Ashanti is viewed as a more compelling investment choice due to its lower cost structure, stronger price performance, and robust growth pipeline compared to SSR Mining [28][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating on Titan due to demand uncertainty in FY26E caused by elevated gold prices and rich valuation [5][41]. Core Insights - UBS's Basic Materials team forecasts gold prices to rise to US$3,500 in 2026, driven by tariff uncertainty, weak growth, high inflation, and geopolitical risks [2][9]. - India's gold demand is expected to moderate to approximately 725 tonnes in FY26, a 7% year-on-year decline, before recovering to 800 tonnes in FY27 as household consumption stabilizes [4][23]. - Indian households hold the largest stock of gold globally, estimated at 25,000 tonnes, valued at around US$2.4 trillion, which is 56% of FY26 nominal GDP [3][13]. Summary by Sections Gold Price Forecast - Gold prices are projected to increase significantly, with annual averages expected to reach US$3,500 in 2026, reflecting a 23% increase from previous estimates [12]. Consumer Demand for Gold - Consumer demand for gold in India is anticipated to soften in FY26, particularly in jewellery, which constitutes 70% of total demand, expected to decline by 5-10% year-on-year [4][23]. - Retail investment demand remains strong, with a notable increase in gold bars and coins, driven by gold's performance as a safe-haven asset [20]. Economic Context - India's net gold imports are projected to remain high at US$55 billion to US$60 billion in FY26/27, accounting for 1.2% of GDP, despite a manageable current account deficit [40]. - The report highlights that the upcoming pay boost of approximately US$55 billion could support household consumption and stabilize gold demand [39][23]. Gold Mobilization Efforts - Policy initiatives aimed at mobilizing gold for productive uses have seen limited success, with households primarily using gold as collateral for loans [42][45]. - The Gold Monetization Scheme and Sovereign Gold Bonds have not achieved significant participation, leading to a discontinuation of some programs [44][45]. Company-Specific Insights - Titan is expected to pursue aggressive network expansion to capture market share as the market transitions from unorganised to organised [5][41]. - The report notes that while Titan's long-term proposition is favorable, the current demand uncertainty warrants a Neutral rating [5][41].