Mortgage rates were unchanged this week, with the 30-year fixed rate again averaging 6.30%, according to Bankrate’s latest lender survey. Current mortgage rates Loan type Current 4 weeks ago One year ago 52-week average 52-week low 30-year 6.30% 6.32% 6.94% 6.68% 6.25% 15-year 5.57% 5.57% 6.16% 5.89% 5.50% 30-year jumbo 6.49% 6.47% 6.94% 6.73% 6.31% The 30-year fixed mortgages in this week’s survey had an average total of 0.34 discount and origination poin ...

Key Takeaways Forecasters believe the economy grew at a fast pace in the third quarter, though the report was delayed by the government shutdown and the data is getting stale. Beneath all the turmoil, economists believe the economy continued to expand in the third quarter, powered by the main engine of economic growth: consumer spending. Related Education Real Gross Domestic Product (Real GDP): How to Calculate It, vs. Nominal What Are Tariffs and How Do They Affect You? "Available data suggest that the eco ...

Economic Data Overview - The week ahead includes the release of key economic reports, notably the initial estimate of third-quarter GDP, which was delayed due to a government shutdown [3][4] - The Bureau of Economic Analysis will only provide two GDP reports for Q3 instead of the usual three, with the final report scheduled for January 22 [4] Market Schedule - Stock markets will close early at 1 p.m. EST on December 24 and remain closed on December 25 for the Christmas holiday [7][10] - Bond markets will close at 2 p.m. EST on December 24 [10] Key Reports to Watch - Reports scheduled for release include durable goods orders for October, industrial production, and capacity utilization data for October and November, along with the December consumer confidence survey [5][10] - Weekly jobless claims data will also be highlighted following an increase in unemployment reported for November [6][10]

Core Insights - The ongoing government shutdown has delayed the release of the Commerce Department's initial estimate of third-quarter GDP, although other data sources indicate solid economic growth during the quarter [1][3] - The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model estimates third-quarter GDP growth at 3.9%, while the New York Fed's nowcast estimates it at 2.35% [6][9] - The lack of official GDP data due to the shutdown is creating uncertainty in economic assessments, with Federal Reserve officials expressing concerns about the impact on their economic outlook [10] Economic Growth Estimates - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model provides a "nowcast" of real GDP growth, estimating a 3.9% growth rate for the third quarter [6] - The New York Fed's staff nowcast estimates third-quarter GDP growth at 2.35%, with a 50% probability range between 1.32% and 3.41% [9] - Incorporating these estimates, the overall GDP growth for the first three quarters of the year could be around 2.4% based on the Atlanta Fed's estimate, or 1.88% based on the New York Fed's estimate [12][13] Impact of Government Shutdown - The government shutdown has led to the Bureau of Labor Statistics missing the September jobs report, although it temporarily returned workers to publish the consumer price index due to its importance for Social Security adjustments [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the duration of the government shutdown is affecting the Federal Reserve's ability to assess the economy accurately, as noted by Fed Chair Powell [10]

Core Insights - Gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 1.2% in the July-September period compared to the previous quarter, indicating economic growth driven by government stimulus and resilient exports despite facing tariff challenges [1] Economic Performance - The 1.2% rise in GDP reflects a positive economic trend, suggesting effective government intervention and strong export performance [1]

Market Outlook - Piper Sandler expects improving EPS breadth to take over after three years of PE expansion [2] - The market has priced in very little macro risk, making further multiple expansion difficult, earnings will need to drive growth [3] - Stable to slightly lower interest rates over the last two and a half years provide tailwinds to the economy [5] - Globally, there have been approximately 95 rate cuts in the last several quarters [5] - Analyst estimates are starting to broaden out, and housing data is stabilizing to slightly improve [6] - Rising small cap and midcap earnings estimates are observed for the first time in three years [7] Economic Indicators - The current backdrop is considered a Goldilocks scenario, with a soft enough labor market to allow gradual rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8] - Broadening of earnings estimates has been strong across mid, small, and large caps in the last two months [10] - Green shoots are appearing in housing data, with purchase applications and refi activity continuing to grind higher [10] - The Fed funds rate is 125 basis points lower and is expected to be another quarter point lower by year end [11]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant issue with the federal government's calculation of job creation, revealing a downward revision of nearly one million jobs for the 12-month period ending in March, raising concerns about the reliability of government economic data [2] - It emphasizes the inadequacy of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a measure of economic health, advocating for the use of Gross Output (GO) as a more comprehensive metric that reflects the true state of the economy [3][5] - The article argues that the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) intentionally delays the release of GO data for political reasons, which undermines the understanding of economic dynamics [4] Group 1: Job Creation and Economic Data - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised job growth down by nearly one million jobs, indicating a colossal miss in job creation reporting [2] - This revision raises serious questions about the reliability of other government economic statistics [2] Group 2: Measurement of Economic Health - The article posits that Gross Output (GO) is a superior metric compared to GDP, as it accounts for spending at all stages of production, unlike GDP which focuses solely on final sales [5][7] - GO reveals that business-to-business (B2B) spending is almost twice the size of consumer spending, challenging the notion that consumer spending drives the economy [5][6] Group 3: Implications of GO - The article suggests that GO provides a more accurate picture of economic health and is a better predictor of future economic conditions [9] - It argues that the release of GO data should coincide with GDP data, and that GO should be regarded as equal or superior to GDP [9]