Core Insights - Shopify reported fourth-quarter 2025 non-GAAP earnings of 38 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.32%, while revenues of $3.67 billion surpassed estimates by 2.55%, marking a year-over-year increase of 30.6% [1][9] Revenue Performance - Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) in Q4 was $123.84 billion, up 31.1% year over year, with offline GMV increasing by 29% and B2B GMV surging 84%. International GMV grew by 50%, with Europe’s GMV rising 45% year over year [2] - Merchant solutions revenues reached $2.89 billion, accounting for 78.8% of total revenues, with a year-over-year increase of 34.9% driven by strong GMV and increased penetration of Shopify payments [3] - Subscription solutions revenues were $777 million, making up 21.2% of total revenues, with a year-over-year increase of 16.7% [4] Profitability Metrics - Gross profit for Q4 was $1.69 billion, reflecting a 25.2% year-over-year increase, although gross margin contracted by 200 basis points to 46.1% due to a mix shift from higher-margin Subscription Solutions to lower-margin Merchant Solutions [5] - Merchant Solutions' gross profit increased by 30%, while Subscription Solutions' gross profit grew by 18%, with respective gross margins of 36.8% and 81% [6] Operating Expenses - Total operating expenses were $1.06 billion, up 19.7% year over year, with Sales & Marketing expenses increasing by 24.4% to $433 million, R&D expenses rising by 11.1% to $390 million, and G&A expenses surging by 11.6% to $125 million [7] - Despite the increase in operating expenses, as a percentage of revenues, total operating expenses declined by 260 basis points to 28.9% [8] Future Guidance - For Q1 2026, Shopify expects revenues to grow at a low-30% rate year over year and gross profit to grow at a high-20% rate year over year, with GAAP operating expenses as a percentage of revenues projected to be in the 37-38% range [11]

Core Insights - Shopify experienced a significant holiday quarter with revenue increasing by over 30% [1] - The growth was primarily driven by a substantial rise in gross merchandise volume (GMV) [1] Revenue Performance - Revenue surged more than 30% during the holiday quarter [1] - This performance indicates strong demand and effective sales strategies within the ecommerce platform [1] Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) - GMV saw a notable increase, contributing to the overall revenue growth [1] - The rise in GMV reflects increased consumer spending and engagement on the platform [1]

Core Insights - MercadoLibre's (MELI) increasing reliance on shipping subsidies is driving strong Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth, but raises concerns about the sustainability of this growth [1][4] - The company is absorbing more logistics costs to enhance order frequency, which is negatively impacting contribution margins despite rising revenues [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Brazil's GMV increased by 36% year-over-year, with sold items rising by 42% after the free-shipping threshold was reduced from R$79 to R$19 [1][10] - Brazil's Direct Contribution fell by 5.94% year-over-year to $475 million, while revenues increased to $4.01 billion [2] - Operating margin remained at 9.8%, constrained by high logistics and marketing expenses, which accounted for 11% of revenues [3] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - MercadoLibre faces heightened competition in Latin America, necessitating ongoing subsidy commitments to maintain market share [5] - Amazon is expanding its operations in Latin America, increasing promotional activities and forcing MercadoLibre to lower free shipping thresholds [6] - Sea Limited's Shopee has entered the market with aggressive subsidy strategies, adding pressure on MercadoLibre's competitive position [7] Group 3: Valuation and Market Performance - MELI shares have decreased by 12% over the past six months, underperforming the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry and the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which saw increases of 7.4% and 5.1%, respectively [8] - The forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio for MELI is 2.96X, compared to the industry's 2.23X, indicating a higher valuation [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MELI's 2026 earnings is $59.59 per share, reflecting a 49.73% year-over-year increase, although it has decreased by 1.54% over the past 30 days [13]

Core Insights - MercadoLibre (MELI) is focusing on Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) as the main driver for growth in Latin America, lowering Brazil's free shipping threshold from R$79 to R$19 to capture more everyday purchases [1][8] - This strategy aims to increase transaction frequency rather than relying on higher average order values or sporadic demand spikes [1] GMV Expansion - Early indicators show that the new shipping threshold led to a 42% year-over-year growth in sold items in Brazil during Q3 2025, with new listings in the R$19-R$79 price range tripling year over year [2] - The combination of increased purchase frequency and a broader assortment in price-sensitive categories suggests a positive response from both buyers and sellers [2] Near-term Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MELI's Q4 2025 GMV is $19.04 billion, reflecting a 31% year-over-year growth and a sequential increase of 15% from Q3's $16.5 billion [3] - This growth outlook indicates rising transaction density during the peak seasonal period, suggesting that GMV momentum could extend beyond a single quarter [3] Execution Risks - There are execution risks as MELI balances GMV growth with profitability, with direct contribution margins in Brazil compressing due to free shipping subsidies outpacing immediate revenue gains [4] - Intense competition may necessitate ongoing promotional investments, impacting the ability to maintain transaction intensity without additional cost pressures [4] Competitive Landscape - Competition in Latin American e-commerce is fierce, with Amazon and Sea Limited pursuing volume-led strategies in overlapping markets [5] - Amazon focuses on logistics and Prime-led fulfillment, while Sea Limited uses shipping subsidies to stimulate GMV in price-sensitive segments [5] Share Price Performance - MELI shares have decreased by 21% over the past six months, underperforming the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry and the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which increased by 5.6% and 4.7%, respectively [6] Valuation Metrics - MELI is currently trading at a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 2.77X, compared to the industry's 2.1X, and has a Value Score of C [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MELI's Q4 2025 earnings is $11.66 per share, reflecting a 7.53% year-over-year decline [11]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. is expected to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on August 28, 2025, with an earnings estimate of 11 cents per share and revenues of $839.9 million [1][6] - The earnings estimate has improved by 2 cents over the past 60 days, indicating a year-over-year improvement of 178.6%, while quarterly revenues are projected to grow by 27.4% year-over-year [2] Financial Performance - For the current fiscal year, Affirm's revenue estimate stands at $3.19 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 37.2%, with EPS projected at 5 cents, indicating a 103% improvement [3] - Affirm has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 102.2% [3] Earnings Predictions - The company is predicted to beat earnings expectations this quarter, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +62.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4] - Key growth drivers for Q4 include expansion in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), an increase in active merchants and consumers, and higher virtual card usage [6] Growth Metrics - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GMV in Q4 suggests a growth of 32.3% year-over-year, with management anticipating GMV to be between $9.4 billion and $9.7 billion [8] - Active consumers are expected to grow by 20.9% year-over-year, with transactions per active consumer projected to rise by 18.4% [9] Revenue Breakdown - Merchant network revenues are estimated at $235 million, indicating a 29.8% increase from the prior year [7] - Card network revenues are expected to improve by 37.5% year-over-year, with interest income projected at $416.1 million, reflecting a 23.3% rise [10] Stock Performance - Affirm's stock has increased by 30.5% year-to-date, outperforming both its industry (19.3%) and the S&P 500 (9.8%) [12] - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/S ratio of 6.33, above its three-year median of 3.63 and the industry average of 5.72, indicating a stretched valuation [14] Strategic Positioning - Affirm is enhancing its BNPL market position by focusing on repeat usage and expanding its ecosystem, with partnerships with major retailers and a growing merchant network of nearly 360,000 [16] - The company is also expanding into essential spending categories and has collaborations that extend its reach into Europe and younger demographics [16] Competitive Landscape - The BNPL market remains competitive, with significant players like PayPal, Block, and Klarna increasing their offerings, posing risks to Affirm's market share [19] - Rising operating expenses and a premium valuation suggest that investors may consider waiting for a more favorable entry point [20]

Core Insights - Shopify (SHOP) reported strong second-quarter 2025 results with non-GAAP earnings of 35 cents per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 25% and reflecting a 34.6% year-over-year increase [1][9] - Revenues reached $2.68 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.47% and showing a 31.1% year-over-year growth [1][9] - Following the earnings report, Shopify shares rose 22%, with a year-to-date increase of 45.7%, significantly outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's return of 10.9% [2] Revenue and Growth Metrics - Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) for Q2 was $87.84 billion, a 30.6% year-over-year increase, driven by a growing merchant base and strong international performance [3][9] - Merchant solutions revenues were $2.02 billion, accounting for 75.5% of total revenues, with a year-over-year increase of 36.6% [4][9] - Subscription solutions revenues reached $656 million, representing 24.5% of total revenues and a 16.5% year-over-year increase [5] Operating Performance - Gross profit for the quarter was $1.3 billion, up 24.6% year over year, with Merchant Solutions' gross profit growing by 32% [7][9] - Total operating expenses were $1.01 billion, a 25.7% year-over-year increase, but as a percentage of revenues, they declined by 160 basis points to 37.7% [7] - Adjusted operating income was $291 million, reflecting a 20.7% year-over-year increase, while operating margin contracted by 90 basis points to 10.9% [10] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - As of June 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents totaled $5.82 billion, up from $5.51 billion at the end of Q1 [11] - Free cash flow increased by 26.7% year over year to $422 million, with a free cash flow margin of 15.7% [11] Future Guidance - For Q3 2025, Shopify anticipates revenue growth in the mid-to-high twenties percentage range year over year, with a consensus estimate of $2.63 billion [12] - Gross profit is expected to grow at a low-twenties percentage rate year over year, while GAAP operating expenses as a percentage of revenues are projected to be in the 38-39% range [13]

Core Insights - Shopify (SHOP) is experiencing significant growth in its merchant base, leading to an increase in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) and reinforcing its position as a leading e-commerce platform [1][2] Group 1: GMV Growth and Merchant Base - In Q1 2025, Shopify's GMV reached $74.75 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 22.8% [2][9] - The growth in GMV is attributed to same-store sales growth from existing merchants, an increase in the number of merchants on the platform, and strong performance in Europe [2][9] - Shopify has achieved over 20% GMV growth for seven consecutive quarters, highlighting the platform's strength in supporting merchants [2] Group 2: Merchant-Friendly Tools - New tools such as Shop Pay, Shopify Pay Instalments, Sign in with Shop, and the Shop App are contributing to the acquisition of new merchants [3] - Shopify Payments is gaining traction, with GMV penetration reaching 64% in Q1 2025 [4] - Shop Pay's GMV increased by 57% year over year, processing over $22 billion, while the Shop App's native GMV surged 94% year over year in the same quarter [4][9] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Shopify faces competition from MercadoLibre and eBay in the e-commerce sector [5][6] - MercadoLibre reported a GMV of $13.3 billion in Q1 2025, marking a 17% year-over-year increase [5] - eBay's total GMV for Q1 2025 was $18.8 billion, showing a year-over-year growth of 1% [6] Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - Shopify's shares have increased by 9.8% year to date, outperforming the Zacks Computer & Technology sector's return of 7.4% [7] - The stock is trading at a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 12.66X, significantly higher than the industry's 5.39X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q2 2025 earnings is 28 cents per share, indicating a 7.69% year-over-year increase [12]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is focusing on growth and merchant expansion, particularly in the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) market, with significant merchant adoption on its platform [1] - The company has expanded into the U.K. market, marking a major step outside North America [1] Merchant Growth - Affirm reported over 254,000 active merchants in fiscal 2023, which increased by approximately 19.3% year over year in fiscal 2024, and reached around 358,000 active merchants by the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2025, reflecting a 23% year-over-year growth [2][11] Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) - The increasing participation of merchants has led to more checkout opportunities, significantly boosting GMV, which surged 36% year over year to $8.6 billion in the fiscal third quarter of 2025. The company projects GMV to be between $35.7 billion and $36 billion for fiscal 2025 [3][11] Revenue and Partnerships - Merchant network revenues rose 34.3% year over year in the fiscal third quarter of 2025, supported by strategic partnerships and product enhancements. The company aims to enhance its product lineup with more flexible payment options and improved point-of-sale integrations [4][11] Competitive Landscape - Competitors in the payment solutions space include PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) and Sezzle Inc. (SEZL). PayPal reported 436 million active accounts and net revenues of $7.8 billion in the first quarter of 2025, while Sezzle's total revenues grew 123.3% year over year to $104.9 million in the same quarter [5][6] Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, AFRM's shares have increased by 90%, outperforming the industry's growth of 37.4%. The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 5.25, below the industry average of 5.68 [9][10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm's 2025 earnings implies a growth of 100.6% from the previous year, with five upward estimate revisions in the past 30 days [13]