On the monthly charts, Mattel is currently in Phase 18, the final stage of its 18-phase Adhishthana cycle. A closer examination of this positioning helps explain why the stock's long-term outlook remains dimmed.Analyzing Mattel Stock's Monthly StructureTo understand how Phase 18 may unfold, it is important to revisit the Guna Triads.Under the Adhishthana framework, Phases 14, 15, and 16 form the Guna Triads. These phases determine whether a stock can achieve a Nirvana move in Phase 18, the peak of the cycle ...

Core Viewpoint - Qorvo's stock is currently in Phase 16 of its Adhishthana cycle, showing a weak triad formation that suggests a negative risk-reward profile for investors [1][2]. Group 1: Triad Formation Analysis - Qorvo is in Phase 16, part of the Guna Triads, which includes Phases 14, 15, and 16, essential for determining the potential for a Nirvana move in Phase 18 [2]. - The absence of Satoguna, a necessary condition for a bullish structure, indicates that a Nirvana move in Phase 18 is unlikely [3]. - Since entering Phase 14 on December 30, 2024, Qorvo's price structure has not shown any clear bullish signals, further diminishing the prospects for a positive outcome [3]. Group 2: Current Phase and Future Outlook - Phase 16 is expected to continue until May 2026, but it has not demonstrated any constructive strength, limiting the potential for improvement [4]. - The longer-term outlook for Qorvo remains unconvincing due to the weak triad formation, despite the possibility of short-term rallies in Phase 17 [5]. - The final phase, Phase 18, is anticipated to bring disappointment rather than significant upside, as the stock has been underperforming since August 2021 [6].

Core Viewpoint - Axcelis Technologies is currently in Phase 18 of its Adhishthana cycle, which is expected to be characterized by consolidation and sluggish price action rather than a trending move [1]. Group 1: Triad Structure Analysis - The Guna Triads, formed by Phases 14, 15, and 16, are crucial in determining the potential for a Nirvana move in Phase 18 [2]. - For a Nirvana move to occur, the triads must exhibit Satoguna, indicating a clean and sustainable bullish structure; without this, a Nirvana rally is not possible [3]. Group 2: Performance in Previous Phases - Axcelis' triads did not show bullish characteristics, with the stock losing over 74% of its value, declining from the 160 region to the 40s during Phases 14 to 16 [5]. - This significant decline rules out the possibility of a Nirvana move in the current Phase 18 [5]. Group 3: Investor Outlook - The weak triad structure suggests a muted near-term outlook for Axcelis, with Phase 18 likely dominated by consolidation and sluggish movement [6]. - The current environment may not be suitable for aggressive directional positioning; instead, experienced options traders might consider range-bound strategies to capitalize on time decay [7].

Core Viewpoint - Southwest Airlines is in the final stage of its Adhishthana cycle, and despite a recent rally, the overall outlook remains uninspiring, suggesting that investors should avoid chasing the stock [1]. Group 1: Triad Formation and Market Dynamics - The stock's triad formation, consisting of Phases 14, 15, and 16, is critical in determining the potential for a Nirvana move, which signifies the peak of the cycle [2]. - For a Nirvana move to occur, the triads must demonstrate Satoguna, characterized by strong momentum and institutional participation; without this, a significant breakout is unlikely [3]. - In the case of Southwest Airlines, the triad formation has not shown sustained bullish momentum, leading to a lack of probability for a powerful late-stage breakout [5]. Group 2: Recent Rally Analysis - The recent short-term upside in LUV is occurring within the upper boundary of a broader consolidation range, lacking the structural support necessary for a lasting trend [6]. - The weak foundation of the triad indicates that the stock does not possess the internal strength to break higher convincingly, often resulting in range-bound trading or false breakouts [7]. Group 3: Investor Outlook - Given the unfavorable triad formation, Southwest Airlines does not currently offer a compelling opportunity for bullish investors, and chasing the recent rally carries significant risk [8]. - Long-term investors are advised to reconsider the stock only after a complete cycle reset and if a new structure begins to favor bullish development [8]. - For traders, the current environment may be more suitable for range-bound strategies rather than pursuing directional momentum [9].

Core Viewpoint - Shift4 Payments is currently experiencing prolonged stock weakness, having struggled for over 300 days, and is in Phase 7 of its 18-phase Adhishthana cycle [1] Group 1: Cakra Formation Analysis - According to Adhishthana Principles, stocks typically form a Cakra structure between Phases 4 and 8, which usually indicates bullish implications [2] - Shift4 Payments began forming its Cakra in July 2023 but experienced a premature breakout above the upper arc during late Phase 5 and early Phase 6, which is structurally unfavorable [3] - The market rejected this premature breakout, leading to a sharp reversal and a subsequent fall back into the Cakra arc, coinciding with its February 2025 quarterly results and the acquisition of Global Blue [4] Group 2: Move of Pralaya - After breaking below the lower arc of the Cakra, Shift4 Payments triggered a bearish move known as the Move of Pralaya, which is characterized by strong selling pressure [7] - Following the Cakra breakdown, the stock has declined by approximately 30% [7] Group 3: Future Outlook - Shift4 Payments is expected to experience bearishness, sluggish price action, and multiple false rallies from Phase 7 through Phase 13, with meaningful clarity on potential reversal only emerging in Phases 14, 15, and 16 [8] - The broader outlook remains weak, and the stock is likely to remain under pressure [8] Group 4: Investor Sentiment - Investors are advised to avoid fresh exposure to Shift4 Payments due to the confirmed Cakra breakdown and the anticipated prolonged weak stretch ahead in the cycle [9] - The monthly chart indicates the stock is in the early part of Phase 2, which is associated with consolidation and corrective behavior, suggesting that current weakness may persist for some time [10]

Core Viewpoint - Adobe is currently in Phase 18 of its Adhishthana cycle, which began in May 2025, and has experienced a decline of approximately 25% since then, leading to divided investor sentiment ahead of earnings on December 10 [1][6]. Group 1: Adhishthana Cycle Analysis - The Guna Triads, consisting of Phases 14, 15, and 16, are crucial for determining if Adobe can achieve a Nirvana move in Phase 18, which requires a sustained bullish structure known as Satoguna [2][4]. - Adobe entered Phase 14 in June 2023, but throughout its triads until October 2024, it exhibited consolidation and inconsistent rallies, indicating a lack of meaningful bullish structure [4][5]. - The absence of Satoguna in the triads has confirmed that Adobe would not achieve a Nirvana move in Phase 18, leading to consistent underperformance since entering this phase [5][6]. Group 2: Investor Outlook - With earnings approaching, volatility is expected to increase; however, the weak triad foundation suggests that Phase 18 will not yield a Nirvana move, and any potential rallies are unlikely to be sustained [6][7]. - The monthly charts indicate that Adobe is still in a descending phase of its Himalayan formation, suggesting that aggressive buying is not advisable at this time [7]. - The options market reflects this sentiment, with heavy call-writing open interest indicating expectations of capped upside and multiple resistance levels [7].

Core Viewpoint - Nutanix's stock fell over 18% after reporting earnings that were below analyst expectations and providing a weak forward outlook, indicating a pre-existing structural decline that was anticipated [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Analysis - Nutanix completed its Cakra formation and broke out in Phase 9, leading to a significant ascent, with a peak around $83.36 before entering a descent phase [2][4]. - The stock has since declined approximately 43% from its peak, which is considered normal for a descent leg in its current cycle [2]. - The current selling pressure aligns with the structural expectation that the stock will revisit the Cakra breakout level of around $31 [6]. Group 2: Future Projections - Nutanix is currently in Phase 12, with expectations that Phases 12 and 13 will focus on completing the descent, followed by a consolidation phase [7]. - Clarity regarding future performance will emerge when Phase 14 begins, which will determine the potential for a strong rally in Phase 18, referred to as Nirvana [7]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - In July, most institutional ratings on Nutanix were bullish, but a cautious analysis highlighted structural risks and advised restraint [10]. - The descent is not complete until the stock approaches the ~$31 region, suggesting that new long positions are premature at this stage [11].

Core Insights - Entegris Inc. has entered the final phase of its Adhishthana Cycle, specifically Phase 18, and has experienced a significant drop of approximately 23% immediately after this transition [1][6] Group 1: Adhishthana Cycle Analysis - The Guna Triads, consisting of Phases 14, 15, and 16, are critical in determining if a stock can achieve a Nirvana move in Phase 18, which signifies a peak in the cycle [2] - Entegris' stock has shown a decisively bearish structure throughout Phases 14 to 16, resulting in a nearly 58% decline, thereby eliminating the possibility of a Nirvana move in Phase 18 [4] - The expected behavior of the stock in Phase 18 aligns with the Adhishthana framework, indicating sluggishness and structural weakness rather than bullish momentum [4] Group 2: Investor Outlook - The long-term outlook for Entegris remains muted due to the weak triad formation, with market participants positioning for continued sluggishness rather than recovery [5] - The stock is anticipated to remain in a consolidation phase throughout Phase 18, with limited upside potential and elevated downside risks [5] - Investors are advised to wait before initiating long positions, while existing holders should consider hedging strategies due to the prolonged consolidation path [5]

Core Insights - Nebius Group's stock has experienced a significant rally from $18 to $140 since April 2023, but this may not indicate long-term value based on the Adhishthana Principles [1] Group 1: Adhishthana Cycle Analysis - Nebius Group is currently in Phase 17 of its 18-phase Adhishthana Cycle, with Phases 14, 15, and 16 forming the Guna Triads that are critical for determining the potential for a Nirvana move in Phase 18 [2] - The stock has shown sharp bearishness and consolidation during its triad phases, declining nearly 83%, indicating that a Nirvana move in Phase 18 is unlikely [5] - Phase 17 is identified as a no-trade phase, suggesting that any rallies should not be pursued [6] Group 2: Future Projections - The transition to Phase 18 is expected in December 2025, which historically leads to sluggish or range-bound trading for such triad structures [6] - Recent stock retracement from $140 to $94 indicates potential exhaustion in the rally [6] - The company's recent earnings report shows a 153% widening of losses, further suggesting that the rally may be losing momentum [7] Group 3: Investor Outlook - The poor triad formation implies that the recent surge lacks structural strength, and the stock is likely to trade with a bearish bias and extended consolidation until at least mid-2027 [8] - While new deals with Meta could enhance business fundamentals, a cyclical cooling off is anticipated before any significant upside can be realized [9] - Investors are advised to wait for the rally to stabilize and seek value opportunities once the cycle resets [9]

Core Insights - H2O America (NASDAQ:HTO) is currently in the final 18th phase of its weekly Adhishthana cycle, with the stock trading within a narrow consolidation zone for several years [1] - The sluggish performance of H2O's stock is attributed to the lack of bullish momentum in the Guna Triads, which are essential for achieving a Nirvana phase in the cycle [2][5] - The current Phase 18 is expected to conclude in December 2025, indicating that the stock may continue its slow, directionless movement until the cycle resets [6] Guna Triads and Stock Performance - The Guna Triads consist of Phases 14, 15, and 16, which must exhibit Satoguna for a Nirvana move to occur in Phase 18 [2][3] - H2O's triads were formed without any bullishness, leading to a lack of decisive momentum and ruling out the possibility of a Nirvana rally early on [5] - The absence of noticeable Satoguna in the triads has muted H2O's performance, which is likely to persist until the end of Phase 18 [7] Investor Outlook - Investors are advised to revisit H2O stock once the cycle resets, particularly looking for better entry points in early phases, especially Phase 2 [7] - Until the cycle resets, it is recommended to remain patient and avoid premature positioning in the stock [7]