点阵图惊现两大阵营：分歧表面化 2025年9月的最新点阵图清晰地展示了FOMC内部的分裂。这种分裂并非首次出现，在2025年3月和6月的点阵图中也曾显现。 具体来看，两大阵营以"年内降息75个基点"为分界线： 大摩报告认为，美联储内部对2025年降息路径存在显著分歧，19名官员中有10人支持降息75个基点或更多，另9人持反对意见。这种分歧的核心并非传 统的鹰鸽之争，而是源于对长期"中性利率"水平的不同认知。近期美国劳动力增长停滞，潜在经济增长或将放缓，进而对中性利率构成强大的下行压 力。 最新的点阵图显示，在19名FOMC成员中，有10人认为今年降息75个基点或更多是合适的政策路径。与此同时，另外9名成员则认为降息幅度应低于75 个基点。 然而，将这种分歧简单地标签化为"鸽派"与"鹰派"之争，可能会忽略更深层次的动态。据追风交易台消息，大摩的在19日的报告中指出， 这两个阵营的 根本分歧在于对"中性利率（r*）"水平的认知不同。尽管双方都认同应在2026年或最晚2027年中期将政策利率恢复至中性水平，但"中性"究竟在何 处，他们并无共识。 更关键的是， 报告观察到美国劳动力增长已陷入停滞，这预示着潜在经济增长 ...

Core Insights - The latest report from Morgan Stanley reveals a split within the Federal Reserve regarding the appropriateness of a 75 basis point rate cut by 2025, with 10 out of 19 FOMC members supporting it while 9 members advocate for a smaller cut [1][6] - The division is not merely a "dove vs. hawk" scenario but stems from differing views on the level of the neutral interest rate (r*) [1][3] - Both factions agree on transitioning to a neutral rate by mid-2026 or 2027, but they disagree on what that neutral rate should be, leading to significant divergence in the dot plot [3] Labor Growth and Economic Implications - The report highlights a stagnation in U.S. labor growth, which is expected to exert downward pressure on potential economic growth (g*) and consequently on the neutral interest rate (r*) [1][5] - Historical data shows a strong correlation between neutral interest rates and potential growth rates, but since 2023, this relationship has diverged, indicating a potential decline in economic growth [5] FOMC Member Perspectives - The two factions within the FOMC are defined as follows: - Faction one consists of 10 members who believe a 75 basis point cut or more is appropriate within the year [6] - Faction two includes 9 members who argue for a cut of less than 75 basis points [6]