Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter percentage point on December 10, 2025, marking its third cut of the year, bringing the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [1] - The decision revealed significant internal disagreement among policymakers, with some advocating for unchanged rates and others pushing for a larger cut, marking the first time since 2019 that such dissent occurred [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the current economic situation as "challenging," highlighting concerns about a softer labor market and inflation remaining above the 2% target [4] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed's outlook for 2026 indicates limited easing ahead, projecting just one rate cut next year, with the Fed Funds rate expected to be 3.4% [5] - Real GDP growth projections have been increased for 2026 to 2.3%, with further increases for 2027 and 2028, while the unemployment rate is projected to decline slightly in 2027 [6] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF (AVUV) is highlighted as a potential investment, benefiting from improved GDP growth projections and a less dovish interest rate policy [8] - The Invesco S&P Mid-Cap 400 Pure Value ETF (RFV) is positioned well due to high momentum in mid-cap stocks, easing trade tensions, and normalizing Fed rate policy [9] - The State Street SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) is noted for its favorable conditions, including cheaper valuations and solid earnings growth, despite a softer labor market [10] - The Pacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF (COWZ) focuses on companies with high free cash flow yields, which are better positioned in a tighter credit market [11]

This may sound so strange to ask it like this, but did we just have a hawkish cut inside of a dovish meeting. Did we just get that. >> I don't feel like that was a hawkish cut.I thought that uh it was interesting that he used the word well positioned. You opened your remark with that. Wellpositioned is the phrase of this meeting.And he went on to basically repeat well position when he was asked, "Are you really on hold now?" And one of the most interesting things was he emphasized this idea that I've that's ...

And let's bring in our first panel now, which is Barry Knap, the director of research at IronIides Macro, and Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors Managing Partner. Welcome to you both. Tom, you're more I don't want to make it sound like you have a point of view other than you're expecting a more hawkish Fed and Barry, you're expecting one that's a little bit more doubbish.So Tom, you're more in line with consensus right now. What would that look like. And why are you still bullish on stock prices.>> Uh, well ...

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The latest CNBC Fed survey is out and Steve Leeman has the highlights on that. Steve, good morning. >> Hey, good morning, Becky. Respondents to the CNBC Fed survey showing or expecting a hawkish cut, that is a cut followed by a pause, but also showing deep divisions over whether the Fed should cut it all, likely reflecting the same split on the committee. Uh, take a look. 87% think the Fed will cut this week, but only 45% think the Fed should cut. That's a kind of historic uh uh differential there for our s ...

Bond ETFs started the week on the back foot as investors positioned ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fell to its lowest level in three months, even with futures markets assigning an 89% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points.TLT, one of the most interest rate-sensitive ETFs on the market, is now up 4.7% year-to-date, down from its October peak, when gains approached 9%. Markets Expect a “Last Cut” Tone The Fed cut rates twice ...

December 5, 2025 08:11 PM GMT US Rates Strategy | North America How Many Hawkish Cuts Does It Take to Make a Dovish Fed? The idea of a second consecutive hawkish cut took yields back toward the top of their 4-month range. Investors increasingly accept the idea that more rate cuts before the June 2026 FOMC meeting – when the next Fed Chair takes the reins – represent low-probability outcomes. Stay long UST 5y notes. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. | M How Many Hawkish Cuts Does It Take ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment outlook for SPX, highlighting a bearish sentiment from the analyst based on current market conditions and company performance [1]. Company Analysis - SPX has shown a significant decline in its stock performance, prompting concerns about its future growth potential [1]. - The analyst emphasizes the importance of monitoring SPX's financial metrics and market trends to assess potential investment risks [1]. Market Conditions - Current market volatility is affecting investor confidence, particularly in sectors related to SPX [1]. - The article suggests that macroeconomic factors, including interest rates and inflation, are critical in shaping SPX's market performance [1].