With U.S. housing starts perking up, investors may be looking at an early entry point for a broad recovery for home builders and their stocks. ...

Core Viewpoint - The company faces challenges due to elevated legal costs and competitive pressures, leading to a cautious outlook despite potential upside from a housing market recovery [1][2][8] Margin Outlook And Earnings Power - Excluding legal expenses, the company could show significant improvement in incremental margins, with estimates of around 50% incremental margins in 2025 [2][3] - Including legal costs, incremental margins are expected to remain in the 30%-40% range for the third consecutive year [3] - By 2027, as legal costs decline, adjusted EBITDA margins could normalize to approximately 60%, reflecting a return to stronger profitability [4] Revenue Growth And Housing Market Catalyst - Revenue growth is projected to slow from 16% in 2026 to 11% in 2027, but stronger performance could enhance adjusted EBITDA due to fixed-cost leverage [5] - A recovery in the housing market is seen as a significant revenue catalyst, although it is expected to occur gradually rather than sharply [5] Private Listing Networks And Competitive Risks - Management believes private listing networks account for less than 1% of total listings and currently do not materially impact the business [6] - Despite the immaterial immediate revenue impact, structural uncertainties may affect the stock's valuation multiple [6] Quarterly Results And Guidance Shortfall - The fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA was 2% below estimates due to weaker margins, and first-quarter guidance was 5% below projections primarily due to higher costs [7] - Full-year 2026 estimates were only reduced by 1%, indicating improved expectations for the second half of 2026 [7] Overall Market Sentiment - The company is experiencing improving operating leverage and potential housing recovery as upside drivers, but legal costs and competitive dynamics warrant a cautious approach [8] - At the time of publication, Zillow shares were down 18.11% at $44.80, marking a new 52-week low [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company faces multiple challenges impacting its near-term outlook, leading to a cautious stance from analysts despite potential upside from a housing market recovery [1][8]. Margin Outlook And Earnings Power - Excluding legal expenses, the company could show significant improvement in incremental margins, with a potential upside risk from a housing market recovery [2] - Incremental margins are projected at approximately 50% in 2025 without legal costs, while including these costs, margins are expected to be in the 30%-40% range for the third consecutive year [3] - By 2027, as legal costs decline, adjusted EBITDA margins could normalize to around 60%, restoring the company's profitability profile prior to its iBuying expansion [4] Revenue Growth And Housing Market Catalyst - Revenue growth is expected to slow from 16% in 2026 to 11% in 2027, but stronger performance could lead to higher adjusted EBITDA due to fixed-cost leverage [5] - A return to mid-cycle levels in the housing market is seen as a significant revenue catalyst, although any recovery is anticipated to be gradual rather than sharp [5] Private Listing Networks And Competitive Risks - Management believes private listing networks account for less than 1% of total listings and currently do not materially impact the business [6] - Despite the immaterial immediate revenue impact, structural uncertainty from these networks could affect the stock's valuation multiple [6] Quarterly Results And Guidance Shortfall - The fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA was 2% below estimates due to weaker margins, and first-quarter guidance was 5% below projections primarily due to higher costs, including legal expenses [7] - Full-year 2026 estimates were only reduced by 1%, reflecting improved expectations for the second half of 2026 [7] Overall Outlook - Improving operating leverage and a housing recovery are seen as potential upside drivers, but legal costs and evolving competitive dynamics warrant a cautious approach [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported global organic revenues were essentially flat compared to the prior year, with a full-year ongoing EBIT margin of 4.7% and ongoing earnings per share of $6.23 [15][18] - Free cash flow generated was $78 million, impacted by tariff payments and higher inventory levels [18] - The company absorbed approximately $300 million in tariffs in 2025, which affected margins due to the absence of industry pricing adjustments [12][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - MDA North America segment delivered an EBIT margin of 2.8% in Q4 and approximately 5% for the full year, with net sales largely flat year-over-year [20] - MDA Latin America experienced a decline of approximately 2% in net sales year-over-year, with a full-year EBIT margin of 6.2% [21] - SDA Global business achieved net sales growth of approximately 10% year-over-year in Q4 and approximately 9% for the full year, with a strong EBIT margin of 16% [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The existing home sales in the U.S. reached a 30-year low, significantly impacting appliance demand [14] - The company noted a potential multi-year recovery in the housing market, which is expected to drive discretionary demand for appliances [14][26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to focus on cost reduction actions of over $150 million, new product launches, and a less promotional environment to drive margin improvements in 2026 [16][39] - The company aims to leverage its strong domestic manufacturing position to benefit from tariffs and improve market share [25][26] - New product introductions accounted for over 30% of the product portfolio, which is expected to drive growth and market share gains [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in sustaining the strong trajectory of the KitchenAid SDA and Latin America businesses despite macroeconomic challenges [15] - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in existing home sales, which could positively impact discretionary demand [26][55] - Management highlighted the importance of cash flow and debt reduction as key priorities moving forward [44] Other Important Information - The company executed a share sale transaction in India, reducing its stake from 51% to 40%, with proceeds used to pay down debt [19] - The company plans to invest approximately $400 million in capital expenditures to support organic growth and product innovation [44] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on 2026 flat industry units number and replacement demand outlook - Management indicated that replacement demand remains healthy, driven by post-COVID usage, but discretionary demand is not factored into guidance, which could provide upside if existing home sales improve [49][51] Question: Assessment of pent-up demand - Management noted significant pent-up demand tied to housing, with a multiyear recovery expected, particularly in remodeling and existing home sales [54][55] Question: Impact of product refresh on flooring costs - Management acknowledged that the high costs associated with new product introductions in 2025 will not recur in 2026, providing a positive impact on margins [56][58] Question: Promotional cadence and pricing plans - Management observed a normalization in promotional pricing, with recent weeks showing a recovery in prices post-Black Friday, indicating a more favorable environment ahead of Presidents' Day [72][75] Question: Capital allocation and funding gap - Management confirmed that the proceeds from the India transaction will assist in meeting debt paydown and dividend commitments, despite a perceived funding gap [80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company reported global organic revenues were essentially flat compared to the prior year, with an ongoing EBIT margin of 4.7% and ongoing earnings per share of $6.23 [15][18] - The company generated $78 million of free cash flow, impacted by tariff payments and higher inventory [18] - The operating margins were slightly below 5%, primarily due to an intense promotional environment in North America [15][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - MDA North America segment delivered an EBIT margin of 2.8% in Q4 and approximately 5% for the full year, with net sales largely flat year-over-year [20] - MDA Latin America experienced a decline of approximately 2% in net sales year-over-year, with a full-year EBIT margin of 6.2% [22] - SVA Global achieved net sales growth of approximately 10% year-over-year in Q4 and about 9% for the full year, with a strong EBIT margin of 16% [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The existing home sales in the U.S. reached a 30-year low, significantly impacting appliance demand [14] - The company noted a potential multi-year recovery in the housing market, which is expected to drive future demand for appliances [27][28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to sustain strong growth in its KitchenAid SDA and Latin America businesses while focusing on margin improvements in North America through cost actions and new product launches [15][16] - The company is committed to reducing debt and returning cash to shareholders while investing in product innovation and digital transformation [47] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges faced in 2025, including tariffs and housing market conditions, but expressed confidence in the company's resilience and strategic priorities for 2026 [12][15] - The company expects revenue growth of approximately 5% in 2026, with ongoing EBIT margin expansion to approximately 5.5%-5.8% [37][38] Other Important Information - The company executed a share sale transaction in India, reducing its stake from 51% to 40%, with proceeds used to pay down debt [19] - The company plans to launch approximately 100 new products in 2026, which are expected to drive growth and improve margins [40] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you unpack the flat industry units number and the strength in replacement demand? - Management indicated that replacement demand remains healthy, driven by post-COVID usage, but discretionary demand is not factored into guidance [54][55] Question: What is the benefit in 2026 from the relief on flooring costs in the North American market? - Management highlighted that the absence of introduction costs and the full benefit of new product demand will positively impact margins in 2026 [60][62] Question: Can you elaborate on the promotional cadence and your pricing plans? - Management noted a significant difference in promotional activity post-Black Friday, with prices recovering quickly, indicating a more normalized promotional environment [80][81] Question: How do you envision the margin guidance cadence between the first half and second half of the year? - Management expects Q1 to be below the 6% margin target due to inventory adjustments, with gradual improvement anticipated in Q2 [82] Question: Can you clarify the capital allocation for the year and the funding gap? - Management confirmed that the proceeds from the India transaction will help in debt reduction, aligning with their capital allocation priorities [86]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley strategists believe that recent aggressive policy measures from the White House will not significantly change the housing market landscape for prospective homebuyers by 2026 [1][2] Policy Measures - The administration's strategy includes a directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, which initially tightened mortgage spreads by 15 basis points, lowering the 30-year mortgage rate below 6% for the first time since 2022 [3][4] Market Reaction - Despite the positive market reaction, Morgan Stanley argues that the market has already priced in the effects of Trump's intervention, and the existing low-rate mortgages limit the effectiveness of the new policy [4][15] Lock-in Effect - The "lock-in" effect is a significant barrier to housing market recovery, with approximately two-thirds of outstanding mortgages having interest rates below 5%. Additionally, 40% of U.S. homes are mortgage-free, exacerbating the lock-in situation [5][8] Demographic Trends - The aging population and lower birth rates are contributing to a slowdown in overall population growth, with the number of families with children under 18 declining from around 37 million in 2007 to approximately 33 million in 2024 [12] Housing Supply and Demand - Current home buying conditions are unfavorable due to high home prices, high mortgage rates, and declining immigration. The lock-in effect is causing existing homeowners to hesitate in selling, while new housing supply is rising, leading to downward pressure on home prices [17] Institutional Investors - Morgan Stanley dismisses the potential impact of a ban on large institutional investors purchasing single-family homes, stating that these investors do not own enough homes to significantly influence the market [17][18] Affordability Challenges - The affordability crisis is attributed to years of policy failures rather than institutional ownership. Solutions to improve affordability would require significant changes in home prices, interest rates, or buyer incomes [18] Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley suggests that further government actions could lower mortgage rates by an additional 50 basis points, but returning to the 4% range would require broader changes beyond GSE actions [20] Inventory Dynamics - New housing inventory is at its highest level since 2007, leading to lower prices for new homes compared to existing ones. Policymakers face challenges in balancing affordability with the exposure of 65% of U.S. households to housing prices as an asset [21]

Core Insights - Irondequoit, New York, is identified as the most competitive housing market in the U.S., with homes selling in an average of 8.5 days for prices well above the asking price, typically around $250,000 [1] - The nationwide average for homes on the market exceeds two months, with a median selling price of just over $410,000 [2][3] - Redfin anticipates a "great housing reset" in 2026, indicating a prolonged recovery phase for the housing market [3] Market Dynamics - The Midwest and Great Lakes regions are gaining popularity due to their affordability and relative safety from climate-related events, attracting recent graduates seeking stable careers [4] - Homeowners with low mortgage rates from the pandemic are hesitant to sell, contributing to limited inventory and rising prices [3] - Areas in Florida and Texas, facing natural disaster risks and increasing insurance costs, are expected to struggle in the market, with sellers potentially having to sell at a loss [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the recent changes in the real estate market, highlighting a shift in policies and market dynamics that may influence buying decisions [1] Group 2 - The first change noted is a subtle "easing" of policies, with a notable adjustment in the "luxury tax" threshold from 5 million to 8 million in some cities, reducing tax burdens for buyers [3] - Additionally, mortgage rates have decreased by nearly 1 percentage point for first-time homebuyers, indicating a supportive policy shift aimed at lowering barriers to home purchases [3] Group 3 - The second change observed is that developers have become "low-key," with a significant reduction in new construction activity, as evidenced by a decline in new construction area over several quarters [4][6] Group 4 - The third change is the revitalization of the second-hand housing market, with increased activity in real estate agencies and a shift in buyer focus from purely investment to living attributes [7] Group 5 - The fourth change involves a "repair" in public expectations regarding the housing market, with a noticeable shift from extreme pessimism to more rational discussions about property values and potential purchases [9] Group 6 - It is important to note that these changes vary by city, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities experiencing the most significant shifts due to ongoing population inflow and job opportunities [10] Group 7 - For first-time buyers, current conditions are described as the most favorable in recent years, with low interest rates, reduced taxes, and a positive attitude from developers [11] - For those looking to upgrade, the second-hand market may offer better value compared to new properties, while caution is advised for speculative investments [13]

Market Overview - The Shanghai real estate market is showing unexpected strength, with both the second-hand and rental markets remaining active as of the end of December 2025 [1][5] - The new housing market in Shanghai also performed positively, with a reported transaction area of 467,000 square meters in December 2025, representing a month-on-month increase of 45.9% [4] Second-hand Housing Market - In December 2025, the transaction volume of second-hand homes (including commercial properties) in Shanghai exceeded 23,000 units, marking the third highest point of the year, following the peak seasons of March and April [6] - Throughout 2025, a total of 254,218 second-hand homes were sold in Shanghai, with monthly transactions consistently above 18,000 units, except for February due to the Spring Festival [6] - The entry threshold for purchasing has decreased significantly, with many older properties now priced around 2 million yuan, making it more accessible for first-time buyers [6] Rental Market - The rental market remains robust, with landlords experiencing quick turnover in rental agreements. For instance, a landlord reported that a new tenant was secured on the same day the previous contract expired, with a rent increase from 1,900 yuan to 2,000 yuan per month [5] - The rental income has steadily increased over time, indicating a strong demand for rental properties [5] Future Outlook - As of early 2026, Shanghai's second-hand housing transaction volume is leading compared to other cities, with 839 units signed during the holiday period [8] - Analysts suggest that while the current market performance is better than the previous two years, the transaction volume has not yet reached a critical point that would trigger a price rebound [10]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 is nearing all-time highs as the AI-driven bull market approaches its third year, indicating a strong market environment for investors heading into 2026 [1] - Investors are considering reorganizing and rebalancing their portfolios, particularly growth investors looking for stocks that may rebound in the upcoming year [1] Group 2 - Opendoor Technologies has seen a significant increase in stock value, up 260% in 2025, largely due to a meme-stock rally and a change in leadership [4][5] - The company has faced challenges due to reliance on leverage and a slowing housing market, but recent signs indicate a potential recovery in the housing market, which could benefit Opendoor [6][7] - Opendoor aims to achieve break-even adjusted net income by the end of 2026, positioning itself for potential growth if the macroeconomic environment improves [7][8] Group 3 - Sweetgreen has experienced a difficult 2025 but is also considered a candidate for significant recovery if economic conditions are favorable [9][10]