Core Insights - The Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to report a 2.8% increase in core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, for the 12 months ending in November, consistent with the previous report in September [2][3] - This inflation rate remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [3] Economic Implications - The delayed release of the PCE inflation data means it will have less influence on Federal Reserve interest rate policy than usual [6][10] - Inflation has exceeded the Fed's target since 2021, although it has decreased from its peak in 2022 [6] - Concerns exist among Fed officials that tariffs are contributing to inflation, while a slowdown in the housing market is helping to moderate rent increases, a significant component of inflation [7][10] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates since 2022 to combat inflation, but has recently lowered rates in response to economic conditions and job market concerns [8] - With the PCE data delayed, the Fed may focus more on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for inflation trends [9][10]

Core Insights - The performance of top U.S. home brands like RH, Williams Sonoma, and Arhaus has remained strong despite challenges in the housing market, with RH reporting a 9% revenue increase to $884 million in Q3 [2] - A report by TD Cowen suggests that the U.S. housing market will continue to face challenges, with expectations of slower home sales persisting into 2026 [3][4] - Affordability issues are becoming more pronounced, with home prices significantly outpacing median household incomes in states like California and New York [6] Company Performance - RH's CEO expressed optimism about future performance in a stronger housing market during the Q3 conference call [1] - Williams Sonoma achieved record revenues of $1.88 billion in Q3, while Arhaus saw an 8% sales increase to $345 million [2] - RH's revenue growth of 9% to $884 million exceeded expectations [2] Market Outlook - TD Cowen's report indicates that U.S. mortgage rates are expected to decrease to 5.5%, which may facilitate more transactions but not significantly boost market activity [4] - The report also highlights that the supply of existing homes is likely to outpace demand, hindering new housing starts in 2026 [5] Affordability Challenges - The average home price in California is $754,304, while the median household income is projected to be around $96,334 to $100,600 for 2024 [6] - In New York, the median home price is $502,060, with a median household income of $85,820 for 2024 [6] - The political landscape is shifting towards addressing affordable housing, as seen in campaigns like Zohran Mamdani's in New York City, where the median home price is $793,963 [7]

Core Insights - Home prices are showing signs of weakening, with a year-over-year increase of 1.3% in September, down from 1.4% in August [1] - A significant number of sellers are delisting their homes, with close to 85,000 homes taken off the market in September, marking a 28% increase from the previous year and the highest level for that month in eight years [2] Market Dynamics - The frequency of delistings is tightening inventory, as many homeowners prefer to withdraw their listings rather than accept low offers, which keeps sale prices elevated [3] - The typical price cut for homes is around $10,000, with cumulative price cuts reaching $25,000 in October, indicating that multiple reductions are becoming more common [3] Seasonal Trends - The housing market is entering its slowest season, with many sellers likely to wait until the spring season to relist their homes [4] - Approximately 1 in 5 homes that are delisted may be relisted, but this may not occur for several months [4] Seller Challenges - Despite home prices being 50% higher than five years ago, about 15% of delisted homes in September were at risk of selling at a loss, the highest share in five years [5] - The supply of homes for sale is currently about 15% higher than a year ago, but is expected to decrease due to seasonal factors and weakening consumer sentiment [6] Sales Activity - Pending sales in October saw a month-to-month increase of 1.9%, remaining flat compared to the previous year, potentially influenced by a slight drop in mortgage rates [7]

Core Viewpoint - Home Depot, Inc. has lowered its full-year profit forecast due to weaker demand, cautious consumer behavior, and a stalled housing market [1][4] Demand and Market Conditions - Despite stable underlying demand, an expected increase in demand for the third quarter did not occur, leading to disappointing results [2][3] - External economic conditions, particularly consumer uncertainty and pressure in the housing market, are negatively impacting home improvement demand [4][6] Housing Market Dynamics - The housing market is experiencing historically low turnover rates, currently at 2.9%, which limits new homeowners from undertaking large-scale projects [5] - The company is observing softer engagement in larger discretionary projects, where financing is typically utilized [5][6] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are hesitant to spend on major discretionary projects due to ongoing inflation and economic uncertainty, including concerns about job security [6][7] - The term "affordability" is frequently mentioned, indicating a significant concern among consumers regarding living costs [6] Company Performance and Outlook - Despite the challenges, Home Depot is executing well and believes it is gaining market share [7] - The company does not anticipate a near-term improvement in the macroeconomic environment or an increase in underlying demand [7][8]

Group 1 - The government shutdown is expected to impact GDP negatively, with potential job cuts being discussed in a meeting involving Trump [1] - Home sales are not expected to stop entirely during the shutdown, but the housing market will face challenges, especially if the shutdown is prolonged [1][2] - The shutdown introduces delays and uncertainty, particularly affecting first-time buyers and those with limited financial flexibility [2] Group 2 - The home buying process may take longer than usual due to potential processing delays for FHA, VA, or USDA loans, which represent about 25% of all mortgage applications [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. housing market is experiencing a significant increase in home purchase agreement cancellations, with 15.3% of agreements falling through in July, equating to approximately 58,000 agreements, marking the highest cancellation rate for July on record [1][2] - High homebuying costs, economic uncertainty, rising inflation, and a slowing labor market are contributing factors to buyers' hesitance in the current market [1][2] Market Conditions - The housing market is slowing down as summer ends, with an impasse between buyers and sellers leading to some sellers withdrawing listings in hopes of better market conditions [2][3] - Mortgage rates are currently averaging about 6.5%, while home prices have surged nearly 50% compared to five years ago, according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index [3][5] Cost Factors - Higher home prices are accompanied by increased insurance premiums and property taxes, with home insurance premiums rising 57% from 2019 to 2024, and a 14% increase occurring in 2024 alone [4][6] - Property taxes have increased by 12% between 2021 and 2023, further straining potential homebuyers [4][6] Income Requirements - An annual household income of $116,986 is now required to purchase a typical home, representing nearly a 50% increase since early 2020 when the required income was $78,236 [5]

Core Insights - The management team anticipates a significant slowdown in the housing market during the second half of 2025 [1] Company Performance - Opendoor has experienced considerable volatility in its stock price in recent weeks [1]