IEEPA(国家经济紧急权力法)

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反弹,如期而至!
格兰投研· 2025-05-29 13:54
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court has blocked Trump's tariff policy announced on April 2, stating that the IEEPA does not grant the president unlimited authority to impose tariffs, leading to the invalidation of global tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, and fentanyl tariffs [1][2]. Legal Issues - The court identified three legal issues: 1. Trade deficits are a long-term phenomenon, not an emergency situation [2]. 2. Historically, IEEPA has been used for sanctions and anti-terrorism, not for imposing tariffs on other countries [2]. 3. The U.S. Constitution grants Congress the power to impose tariffs, not the president [2]. Court Ruling and Appeal - The court ruled that Trump's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs was an abuse of law, halting the tariffs immediately. However, tariffs based on Sections 232 and 301 remain unaffected [2]. - The Trump administration has appealed the ruling to the Circuit Court and requested an emergency stay to continue imposing tariffs during the appeal process [3]. Political Implications - The ruling represents a significant setback for Trump and indicates a consolidation of establishment forces in the U.S. [3]. - There are differing opinions on whether Trump will succeed in his appeal, with some suggesting that the Supreme Court may not intervene in the long-standing power struggle between Congress and the presidency [6]. Economic Impact - Trump's economic policy relies on internal tax cuts and external tariffs, making it unlikely for him to abandon the tariff strategy as it is crucial for his administration's financial plans [7]. - The ruling complicates Trump's ability to impose tariffs, as alternative legal avenues may lead to further litigation and delays [8]. Market Reaction - Following the news, the Chinese stock market experienced a broad rally, with the A-share market seeing a slight increase and significant trading volume [9]. - The technology sector performed well, while consumer stocks faced declines, indicating a shift in market sentiment and investment focus [9]. Future Outlook - The current market sentiment remains optimistic, with the Shanghai Composite Index positioned for potential growth, particularly in the technology sector [10].